They certainly havent changed the Model 3 configuration site. It still figures in the full $7500 tax credit even though the delivery estimate is post September 30th. Really wouldnt that really piss off people if they are being told then will get a $7500 tax credit when in reality if the 200K vehicle was delivered in June the tax credit starting Oct 1 will be $3750.
Still unknown is the number of early cars (pre-2012 Roadsters) that would have qualified for the credit per government regulations.
Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Sales in June
Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X.
Our estimates for the US and Canada can be viewed below. With our estimates for April and May, our numbers for the quarter come to 18,300. The 140 unit difference is likely accounted for by the 200-300 units we expected to be delivered to Canada at the end of May. Model X and S numbers also meet our expectations. We will provide additional updates as we parse the info released by Tesla. We also reached out to them regarding the 200,000th sale and will update this article if we receive a comment.
Tesla and General Motors are both going to pass 200,000 US sales in 2018. This will have major implications for many buyers hoping to receive the full $7500 rebate. If you are not familiar with the U.S. federal EV credit, check out the articles here and here.
Why we believe Tesla has passed 200k
In order to estimate Tesla deliveries, we pull information from multiple sources around the web. A few of the factors we consider when making our estimates:
Estimating June deliveries is far more difficult than usual for many reasons. Tesla had a 5 day production shut down in late May that would surely impact Model 3 deliveries in June.Tesla also changed their VIN assignment timeline in June. Previously, owners waiting on their vehicles would be able to view their VIN weeks ahead of delivery. But this month, many owners were not receiving their VIN numbers until 5-10 days before their scheduled delivery.
- Expected weekly production
- Deliveries by state and country
- Average delivery time
- Number of VIN numbers reported for delivery in a month
- VIN ranges in a month
- Statements by employees, Tesla or Elon Musk
The accelerated time frame between VIN assignment to delivery means less people have reported their delivery info. However, the growth in VIN numbers appears to have continued as usual. Extreme high and low VINs are not included in the above graph since they are typically outliers.June was also the first full month when deliveries were made outside of the United States. The initial push of Canadian deliveries was very strong, but by mid-June had dropped significantly.
Our sales estimates for June
For June, we expect about 6,050 Model 3’s were sold in the U.S. We also believe that approximately 2,250 made their way to Canadian buyers this month. (Mostly to Ontario.)
The drop in U.S. deliveries is not unexpected considering exports and a late May production shutdown. While U.S. deliveries of the Model 3 are lower than May, we believe overall deliveries are up to about 8,300.Model X and Model S sales in the U.S. appear to be up slightly over last year as well. We are expecting 2400 Model X and 2900 Model S made their way to U.S. buyers.
Why our normal measurements might not show an intentional delay.
In any normal month we’d feel 100% confident with these numbers as is. However, this is not a normal month. With Tesla changing how it assigns VIN numbers and Canada getting their first Model 3s this quarter, matters have already been complicated over previous quarters.
More important is Tesla’s 200,000th sale. Production certainly has not stopped and deliveries have not stopped either. Canadian deliveries appear to have returned to normal levels after a brief spike in late may and early June.The only way Tesla could have delayed any further would be by stocking vehicles for weeks. Would the company be willing to halt sales in order to extend the availability of the full tax credit? Perhaps. I have certainly been hoping they would do so.
If Tesla chose to re-schedule or delay most of the deliveries planned for the last week of June, it might have been possible to push back the 200,000th sale to July. Unless the buyer reports the change there is no way for us to know it has occurred. So our traditional estimate methods may not apply if Tesla has taken this action. But we do not have enough evidence to make us believe this occurred.
Historical numbers
The other wildcard is historical numbers. When estimating deliveries over the course of 7 years, there is going to be a margin of error. We do not know the exact number of roadsters that would have qualified for the credit for instance. The breakdown of U.S.-bound S/X sales is estimated as well. While Nissan and General Motors (until recently) always provided exact sales numbers, Tesla rarely has. So estimating Tesla deliveries is tricky business. InsideEVs gained a reputation for providing not only the best initial Tesla estimates, but for keeping the numbers updated over time when exact numbers are provided or leaked.
In the hands of Jay Cole, the site historically made U.S. sales estimates that were intentionally conservative. So the likelihood of estimates being significantly overestimated is small but worth noting. So what will the final Q2 Model 3 numbers show? We have provided our estimates. While I would personally like Tesla to delay until Q3, I’m also happy to see the company continue to grow and expand during this exciting time.
Given the unusual circumstances, we are going to delay updating the sales scorecard for Tesla for a few days. Once we receive quarterly numbers from Tesla this week, we will compare them to our own and update the sales chart with our final numbers. We are hoping that they will provide guidance on whether they have passed 200,000 or not as well.
Ahh... Didn't see the "update" verbiage in your post... thus my post.The article I posted and linked from Inside EVs was the updated version...
It was a rogue ISA who over delivered 1k units beyond their quota to sabotage the EV buyer.
