US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

[alseTrick]

don't tell flatsix911 he's apparently still clinging to delusions that Tesla hit 200,000 in June. 3 days into July and he still can't absorb the fact that Tesla deferred deliveries.

Why does that person want Tesla to have hit 200k last quarter?

 

[thx1139]

his point was Tesla is a terrible douchey company if they did not tell anyone they hit the 200k mark in the 2nd quarter, never mind such an action would fly as an insult to the shareholders. Look how much the share price has dropped after the official delivery numbers were released. Could you imagine the downfall if people found out Tesla was purposely withholding deliveries? Thats why they've been mum about it.

You dont have to like a car company to enjoy a car, but to each their own.

I think that overall people would look at withholding the deliveries a week or two as a favorable decision to make sure more people get the tax credits. Sure maybe some people would complain they had to wait another week or two, but think overall it would be favorable.

 

[xyeahtony]

I think that overall people would look at withholding the deliveries a week or two as a favorable decision to make sure more people get the tax credits. Sure maybe some people would complain they had to wait another week or two, but think overall it would be favorable.

Wall Street thinks otherwise. TSLA shares are down $25+ today. And that's without any official confirmation they withheld deliveries.

Why does that person want Tesla to have hit 200k last quarter?

billions in shorts gives a lot of people hope for Tesla to fail.

 

[thx1139]

Wall Street thinks otherwise. TSLA shares are down $25+ today. And that's without any official confirmation they withheld deliveries.



billions in shorts gives a lot of people hope for Tesla to fail.

Sure but then announcement of 20K deliveries in 1st week or 2 of July causes it to bounce right back. Announce that for the remainder of 2018 all customers will get the full $7500 credit also should cause a bounce.

 

[derkan]

I wonder if Tesla won't start having problems keeping up with the delivery volume. E.g. If my car's ready in December, will the delivery centers be backed up and I won't get a date until January?

 

[FlatSix911]

don't tell flatsix911 he's apparently still clinging to delusions that Tesla hit 200,000 in June.
3 days into July and he still can't absorb the fact that Tesla deferred deliveries.

Why does that person want Tesla to have hit 200k last quarter?

Wall Street thinks otherwise. TSLA shares are down $25+ today. And that's without any official confirmation they withheld deliveries. billions in shorts gives a lot of people hope for Tesla to fail.

Far from the truth. I am an early stage investor and have owned multiple Tesla's over the past 5 years.
In fact I hope that Tesla has not hit 200K deliveries, however the preliminary numbers indicate otherwise.

 

[mongo]

Pulling from Market action...

OK, Regardless of the propriety of any thread, what is the statutory or regulatory basis of a waiver????


Is all you got:


IRS media relations specialist Anabel Marquez would only give AutoblogGreen a simple statement:


The list of vehicles posted [online] is current based on the requirements of various federal tax law provisions. As noted here, manufacturers must meet the certification and reporting requirements described in Notice 2009-89. To be listed on IRS.gov, the manufacturer must also provide the IRS with a disclosure waiver.


Can Ms Marquez cite any authority? (Does she work for Lois Lerner or John Koskinen?)

As I said "my understanding" is that a disclosure waiver may be required for the IRS to release company proprietary information. I'm not here to investigate whether this decision is due to a legal requirement or general business practice.

 

[R.S]

Far from the truth. I am an early stage investor and have owned multiple Tesla's over the past 5 years.
In fact I hope that Tesla has not hit 200K deliveries, however the preliminary numbers indicate otherwise.

I do agree, after looking at the numbers again and again and seeing the insideevs estimates for the US and greencarreports for Canada, it's almost impossible, that they managed to go below 200k. Let's hope their predictions are wrong, but as I see it, they are a couple thousand above 200k.

 

[Ulmo]

I am not buying the number. There are empirical evidences that delivery slowed down dramatically, delivery being told what car and when to deliver and lots filled with Model 3.

Yes, there is. However, every single time I said it with photographic evidence, someone would hit the Disagree button. A lot of people really hate the idea that they slowed down to miss 200,000.

What's worse is if they had the massive slow down for a reason other than missing 200,000, and just barely made it past 200,000.

 

[Ulmo]

Pulling from Market action...

As I said "my understanding" is that a disclosure waiver may be required for the IRS to release company proprietary information. I'm not here to investigate whether this decision is due to a legal requirement or general business practice.

That's rediculous. People need to know in order to file their taxes and to know how much money to save for those taxes.

 

[drawfour]

What's worse is if they had the massive slow down for a reason other than missing 200,000, and just barely made it past 200,000.

I agree. If they barely made it past 200k because of some other issue and didn't pull back the reigns just a bit more to make sure lots more people could take advantage of the tax credit, that's just lousy management on their part. And even more so given Elon's talk about how they have put off short-term gains for long-term customer satisfaction before.

Really, I can't see any reason why they would have hit 200k in June. This number has been known for a long time, with much speculation and anticipation. For them to just barely squeak by the target would be absurd.

 

[wdolson]

I do agree, after looking at the numbers again and again and seeing the insideevs estimates for the US and greencarreports for Canada, it's almost impossible, that they managed to go below 200k. Let's hope their predictions are wrong, but as I see it, they are a couple thousand above 200k.

They needed to stay below about 6000-7000 US deliveries in June. It's hard to know for sure because we don't know how many Roadsters were sold in the US after the program started. The program's start date is shortly before they switched to selling Roadsters oversees only (the last year of production was 100% export because there was some safety feature they would have had to add to sell in the US).

6000 a month is a very new thing for Tesla. As recently as February of this year they delivered less than 6000 cars in the US. In April they were just a bit above 6000. May was the first month in the company's history that was way over 6000 deliveries (about 9000). There is evidence they have been slow walking some deliveries. Also they chose June to start shipping Model 3s to all the stores in the US. A number of stores are giving test drives for Model 3s now. If they also shipped some cars for service loaners, that would absorb some more production.

Car registration numbers for other countries indicates that a lot of Ss and Xs were delivered overseas in the last month.

In May Tesla was prioritizing Model 3 deliveries to Washington State so as many people as possible could take advantage of a state tax incentive that expired May 31. According to a number of Washington reservation holders who just missed the end of May deadline, their delivery estimates almost all went to July. That's another indication Tesla was planning on delivering fewer cars in the US in June after pushing them to Washington in May.

There is no guarantee Tesla did manage to push the 200,000th delivery to this week or next week, but if they missed and delivered last month, that's a screw up on their part. The evidence Tesla was trying to slow walk US deliveries to stay under the threshold is strong.

 

[R.S]

They needed to stay below about 6000-7000 US deliveries in June. It's hard to know for sure because we don't know how many Roadsters were sold in the US after the program started. The program's start date is shortly before they switched to selling Roadsters oversees only (the last year of production was 100% export because there was some safety feature they would have had to add to sell in the US).

6000 a month is a very new thing for Tesla. As recently as February of this year they delivered less than 6000 cars in the US. In April they were just a bit above 6000. May was the first month in the company's history that was way over 6000 deliveries (about 9000). There is evidence they have been slow walking some deliveries. Also they chose June to start shipping Model 3s to all the stores in the US. A number of stores are giving test drives for Model 3s now. If they also shipped some cars for service loaners, that would absorb some more production.

Car registration numbers for other countries indicates that a lot of Ss and Xs were delivered overseas in the last month.

In May Tesla was prioritizing Model 3 deliveries to Washington State so as many people as possible could take advantage of a state tax incentive that expired May 31. According to a number of Washington reservation holders who just missed the end of May deadline, their delivery estimates almost all went to July. That's another indication Tesla was planning on delivering fewer cars in the US in June after pushing them to Washington in May.

There is no guarantee Tesla did manage to push the 200,000th delivery to this week or next week, but if they missed and delivered last month, that's a screw up on their part. The evidence Tesla was trying to slow walk US deliveries to stay under the threshold is strong.

I would have bet on Tesla not crossing the threshold in June, but since I've read the sales report of insideevs I am not so sure anymore. They have been really accurate in the past and they see sales at over 11k (which is quite the achievement otherwise).

And if you look at the deliveries in Q3 Tesla says they have had 18440 Model 3. About 440 went to Canada in May so that means about 7800 to be split up between Canada and the US. Since greencarreports estimates less than 2k for Canada, we still have 5800 Model 3. So Model S and X sales should have been close to 0. Since insideevs didn't notice that, there are only two options.

1. Tesla is above 200k

2. Insideevs has missed something big

I think we will know shortly and I wonder why Elon hasn't said anything publicly, yet. A simple tweet could help a lot right now.

 

[mongo]

That's rediculous. People need to know in order to file their taxes and to know how much money to save for those taxes.

I think you are lacking context.
This is only discussing the run up to 200k (the OEM's sales rate of EVs). As much as it matters for taxes, people will have the information needed.

The OEM has to provide the certification (confirmed by IRS on quarterly basis) to the purchaser of the vehicle's ability to claim the credit and the amount of credit the purchase can claim.
Once an OEM is a full quarter past the quarter where the sold their 200kth EV, they would tell purchasers they qualify for the $3,750 credit.

The OEM could also let the buying public know when they have passed 200k to provide a one quarter plus remainder of quarter heads up, but I don't see where that is required.
If Tesla's configurator is saying 3-5 months and $7,500 credit, that is a good indication they did not pass 200k in Q2 (or the web team is not in sync with reality).

 

[mongo]

1. Tesla is above 200k

2. Insideevs has missed something big

I think we will know shortly and I wonder why Elon hasn't said anything publicly, yet. A simple tweet could help a lot right now.

The IRS notice mentions consumers and retail dealers. I wonder if government purchases do not count (police departments, municipalities). Also perhaps, any sales in the US destined for non-Tesla suppoeted countries.

Also, Tesla would be wise to wait for IRS certification of their Q2 numbers before announcing anything. Tesla must submit final Q2 numbers to the IRS on or before July 31, then the IRS acknowledges and certifies the report within 30 days. (Explains the extra quarter full credit buffer). So Tesla technically cannot say for certain until end of August at the latest if they made it past Q2.

Internal Revenue Bulletin: 2009-48 | Internal Revenue Service

Acknowledgement of Certification. The Service will review the original signed certification and issue an acknowledgment letter to the vehicle manufacturer (or, in the case of a foreign vehicle manufacturer, its domestic distributor) within 30 days of receipt of the request for certification. This acknowledgment letter will state whether purchasers may rely on the certification.

 

[R.S]

The IRS notice mentions consumers and retail dealers. I wonder if government purchases do not count (police departments, municipalities). Also perhaps, any sales in the US destined for non-Tesla suppoeted countries.

Also, Tesla would be wise to wait for IRS certification of their Q2 numbers before announcing anything. Tesla must submit final Q2 numbers to the IRS on or before July 31, then the IRS acknowledges and certifies the report within 30 days. (Explains the extra quarter full credit buffer). So Tesla technically cannot say for certain until end of August at the latest if they made it past Q2.

Internal Revenue Bulletin: 2009-48 | Internal Revenue Service

Ok that's interesting to know, so we will know for sure in late August... that's not really too bad for people waiting for their deliveries, since you can't change your spot in the waiting list, but everyone who is on the fence of ordering might want to keep this in mind.

 

[mongo]

Ok that's interesting to know, so we might be in limbo until the end of August!

Yah, although with the proposed legislative extension to the EV credit, maybe not...

 

[ℬête Noire]

Yah, although with the proposed legislative extension to the EV credit, maybe not...

I wouldn't count on that legislation, even if GM decides to step it's lobbying behind it. It got saved from being scrapped outright this year, the pressure seems in the wrong way to extend it.

 

[lklundin]

I would have bet on Tesla not crossing the threshold in June, but since I've read the sales report of insideevs I am not so sure anymore.

When will we know for sure whether the 200k sale was reached in Q2 or not?
(Given that Tesla so far has done their utmost to help implement the government's chosen subsidy policies, reaching 200k in Q2 would be a serious mismanagement of resources).

I am interested as a non-US person because I expect the Model 3 export to start only after the tax credit has been cut in half, and likely only take off for real once it is down to 25%.

Btw, as a reservation holder in Germany I have mixed expectations about the start of deliveries here. I expect German reviewers to literally orgasm over even the tiniest of panel gaps,(*) so I expect German sales to start only when the build quality is top notch. Which in one sense is good. On the other hand, I still hope for the promised delivery in 'Early 2019'.

(*) I couldn't find it, but somewhere in there must be a pun regarding a Freudian slit.

 

[mongo]

When will we know for sure whether the 200k sale was reached in Q2 or not?

My estimations:
Longest case:
If purchasers in Q4 are told by Tesla they qualify for $7,500, then 200k was in Q3.
Shortest legally binding 200kth in Q3 case: once Tesla gets acceptance from the IRS of Q2 numbers (Aug 30th at the latest)
Shortest 200kth in Q2 case: self accounced by Tesla at any point