US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

[jsmay311]

Whether or not a buyer actually takes advantage of the tax credit for his/her vehicle is immaterial. It doesn't change the fact that it's still a "qualifying vehicle", so it still counts toward the 200k.

Think about it... If it did matter, there'd be no way to track the phase-out since you wouldn't be able to get an accurate count of utilized credits until the following year's tax filing time.

 

[ccutrer]

Whether or not a buyer actually takes advantage of the tax credit for his/her vehicle is immaterial. It doesn't change the fact that it's still a "qualifying vehicle", so it still counts toward the 200k.

Think about it... If it did matter, there'd be no way to track the phase-out since you wouldn't be able to get an accurate count of utilized credits until the following year's tax filing time.

You’re assuming our tax laws make sense

 

[Thomas Edison]

Stop speculating people!, the thread notifications from this are making me crazy. We need facts!

 

[mongo]

Stop speculating people!, the thread notifications from this are making me crazy. We need facts!

I'll stand with this until evidence is given to the contrary (for reasons previously mentioned):

Tesla is waiting for IRS certification of Q2 being below 200k.

 

[R.S]

I'll stand with this until evidence is given to the contrary (for reasons previously mentioned):

Tesla is waiting for IRS certification of Q2 being below 200k.

Or Tesla is waiting for IRS certification of Q2 being above 200k.

Those are literally the two possibilities. I personally do think they were still below 200k, for whatever reason. Just because it would be too stupid to go slightly above 200k.

But that's my only real argument here...

Edit: only reason I can think of for not waiting is they really needed the money from those 6k cars and therefore didn't keep them on a lot. But I don't think some 300-400 million would really make the difference.

 

[mongo]

Or Tesla is waiting for IRS certification of Q2 being above 200k.

Those are literally the two possibilities. I personally do think they were still below 200k, for whatever reason. Just because it would be too stupid to go slightly above 200k.

But that's my only real argument here...

Edit: only reason I can think of for not waiting is they really needed the money from those 6k cars and therefore didn't keep them on a lot. But I don't think some 300-400 million would really make the difference.

That is the other option, but I can't think of a reason why they would need to wait if they were over 200k. It's not like the IRS is going to lower their count and reduce 2018 federal revenue out of the kindness of their hearts...

 

[ohmman]

mod note: some posts moved off to Politics. Not every post was specifically about politics but they may have been replying to a sub-conversation in which non-EV related politics were discussed. I couldn't leave them without context. If there is useful information in your post, you can find it at the link and copy/paste relevant info back.

 

[R.S]

That is the other option, but I can't think of a reason why they would need to wait if they were over 200k. It's not like the IRS is going to lower their count and reduce 2018 federal revenue out of the kindness of their hearts...

Actually they don’t need to wait for anything. They can still produce cars and at some point the IRS will say Tesla has crossed that mark.

Actually Tesla doesn’t even come in contact with the tax credit unless they lease a car. All they need to do is report the numbers.

 

[mongo]

Actually they don’t need to wait for anything. They can still produce cars and at some point the IRS will say Tesla has crossed that mark.

Actually Tesla doesn’t even come in contact with the tax credit unless they lease a car. All they need to do is report the numbers.

I am referring to Tesla having not announced the start of the EV tax credit phase out. OEMs are the ones who tell buyers how much credit the vehicle qualifies for.

If they clearly passed 200k in Q2, they could (but are not required) to let purchasers know that the $7,500 level ends September 30 (earlier depending how that whole title transfer thing is interpreted).

If Tesla believes they did not pass 200k, they would likely wait for IRS confirmation before making any statements. It would be a big thing to walk back, and with the credit ending EoY, an extra (up to) 30 days notice is less of an impact.

 

[R.S]

I am referring to Tesla having not announced the start of the EV tax credit phase out. OEMs are the ones who tell buyers how much credit the vehicle qualifies for.

If they clearly passed 200k in Q2, they could (but are not required) to let purchasers know that the $7,500 level ends September 30 (earlier depending how that whole title transfer thing is interpreted).

If Tesla believes they did not pass 200k, they would likely wait for IRS confirmation before making any statements. It would be a big thing to walk back, and with the credit ending EoY, an extra (up to) 30 days notice is less of an impact.

Well, if they were sure, they could tell us anyways, right?

That’s what surprises me the most, that there is no comment at all. No denial, no explanation why they don’t tell us, but also no confirmation that it happened.

I mean they could just say that they are waiting for some sort of confirmation.

But maybe it’s really close and they want to be 100% sure?

 

[mongo]

Well, if they were sure, they could tell us anyways, right?

That’s what surprises me the most, that there is no comment at all. No denial, no explanation why they don’t tell us, but also no confirmation that it happened.

I mean they could just say that they are waiting for some sort of confirmation.

But maybe it’s really close and they want to be 100% sure?

There is no sure (for being under 200k) until the IRS confirms it. They can likely go back through the years of records to validate the total.

In the mean time, what benefit would Tesla gain from a conditional statement?

 

[R.S]

There is no sure (for being under 200k) until the IRS confirms it. They can likely go back through the years of records to validate the total.

In the mean time, what benefit would Tesla gain from a conditional statement?

A statement like "we are very sure, that we are below 200k, but we still await confirmation" would be reassuring to reservation holders in the US.

A statement like "we are probably above 200k so the tax credit will run out in September" would give people an incentive to switch for a sooner to be produced car.

The only thing that's bad is "we don't really know", or "no comment".

 

[mongo]

A statement like "we are very sure, that we are below 200k, but we still await confirmation" would be reassuring to reservation holders in the US.

A statement like "we are probably above 200k so the tax credit will run out in September" would give people an incentive to switch for a sooner to be produced car.

The only thing that's bad is "we don't really know", or "no comment".

Both those statements sound nice, but are not actionable or reassuring (at least to me) since they are not definitive.

I think needing to say "oops we were wrong, credit expires next month, apologies to anyone who didn't order in time due to our previous message" is worse than no comment.

In the event the statement was wrong: On the one hand people would be mad they missed the cut off. On the other, people would be mad for buying an inventory car instead of the one they wanted.
In either, Tesla might wind up with another frivolous class action lawsuit...

I do think if they had clearly passed 200k in Q2, they would say something. So it's likely they are on the cusp and unsure or below and cautious.

 

[scaesare]

The only thing that's bad is "we don't really know", or "no comment".

I don't understand why this is so "bad', other than you seem to want to make it so.

It's a bit of a mountain out of a molehill, as far as I'm concerned. As long as they provide some guidance before the loss of the full credit amount to owners who will pay to configure their vehicles, then why is this an issue?

As @mongo said, taking a mis-step is worse... and in my mind raising the concern while it's unconfirmed just needlessly throws uncertainty in to the mix for potential customers...

 

[R.S]

I don't understand why this is so "bad', other than you seem to want to make it so.

It's a bit of a mountain out of a molehill, as far as I'm concerned. As long as they provide some guidance before the loss of the full credit amount to owners who will pay to configure their vehicles, then why is this an issue?

As @mongo said, taking a mis-step is worse... and in my mind raising the concern while it's unconfirmed just needlessly throws uncertainty in to the mix for potential customers...

Well, worse than a comment at least. And like I said before, if it's really close, I can understand why they would want to wait.

But I personally would prefer a statement, if they are well below, or way above 200k. And I don't want to accuse them of having a bad PR strategy, even though you seem to want me to do so. (I guess it's always easier to argue against a "troll"?)

I just use it as my own reasoning to say it's probably close. I also do think they are probably below 200k, again as I mentioned before slightly above 200k would be a word case, but also the easiest to avoid.

It just seems to be a rather complicated process and not even the guys at Tesla are sure enough to issue a statement, or just tweet something. So I don't see it as a reason that they are definitely below 200k, as @mongo does, but rather that it's incredibly close.

Though after reading about the weirdness of how sales might be added up, incredibly close could be up to 5k cars.

 

[R.S]

Both those statements sound nice, but are not actionable or reassuring (at least to me) since they are not definitive.

I think needing to say "oops we were wrong, credit expires next month, apologies to anyone who didn't order in time due to our previous message" is worse than no comment.

In the event the statement was wrong: On the one hand people would be mad they missed the cut off. On the other, people would be mad for buying an inventory car instead of the one they wanted.
In either, Tesla might wind up with another frivolous class action lawsuit...

I do think if they had clearly passed 200k in Q2, they would say something. So it's likely they are on the cusp and unsure or below and cautious.

Like I said, if it's clear they would have said something already. And I agree, there is nothing worse, than going back. But the current no comment strategy isn't really optimal, rather something they are forced into. So my best guess for why they still don't want to say anything is because they are very close. Way below and cautious, as well as way above and cautious doesn't sound like Tesla/Elon.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

I think they blew through the 200K in June. Here is why:
- No evidence of tons of deliveries scheduled for July. If they had been holding back cars, you would have seen lots of deliveries scheduled for early July (and few in late June). But, we aren’t seeeing that at all.
- Unless they satisfied all the demand in Canada, it would have been easy to divert more M3 there.
- Tesla announced they already have 14,000 cars in transit (3K S/X and 11K M3). To get below the limit (per InsideEV’s) they would have need to hold back another 6,000 with retail value of $300M. That is a huge amount of deferred cash for a company that needs it.
- With a waitlist of 400,000 people - demand is clearly strong enough - tax credit or non.
- Elon wants to max out Q3. So if Q3 is last quarter of full tax credit, that helps pull demand forward.

 

[mongo]

So I don't see it as a reason that they are definitely below 200k, as @mongo does, but rather that it's incredibly close.

Just for the record, I take it as an indicator they are not way above (which would be a definitive state). Thus, likely just below.

 

[mongo]

No evidence of tons of deliveries scheduled for July. If they had been holding back cars, you would have seen lots of deliveries scheduled for early July (and few in late June). But, we aren’t seeeing that at all.

There are pics of yards full of Teslas, they may not be staged to correct destination. However I am seeing many posts of July deliveries

Unless they satisfied all the demand in Canada, it would have been easy to divert more M3 there.

They appeared to concentrate in Ontario where a EV credit was in jeopardy.

Tesla announced they already have 14,000 cars in transit (3K S/X and 11K M3). To get below the limit (per InsideEV’s) they would have need to hold back another 6,000 with retail value of $300M. That is a huge amount of deferred cash for a company that needs it.

InsideEV diesn't have official Canada numbers, and their estimate seems low.

Delaying sales 2 weeks impacts the Q2 numbers, but has minimal impact on the balance sheet. Or difference at all one month out.

With a waitlist of 400,000 people - demand is clearly strong enough - tax credit or non.

Yes, but the options ordered will vary based on EV credit.

Elon wants to max out Q3. So if Q3 is last quarter of full tax credit, that helps pull demand forward.

They can't pull 3 forward more than production can handle. Likewise S/X are factory constrained. Q3 just needs 5k/ wk+ for good (doesn't need max, just positive) numbers.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

There are pics of yards full of Teslas, they may not be staged to correct destination. However I am seeing many posts of July deliveries

They appeared to concentrate in Ontario where a EV credit was in jeopardy.



InsideEV diesn't have official Canada numbers, and their estimate seems low.

Delaying sales 2 weeks impacts the Q2 numbers, but has minimal impact on the balance sheet. Or difference at all one month out.


Yes, but the options ordered will vary based on EV credit.


They can't pull 3 forward more than production can handle. Likewise S/X are factory constrained. Q3 just needs 5k/ wk+ for good (doesn't need max, just positive) numbers.

I am just looking at the official Tesla press release; Troy’s M3 spreadsheet; and InsideEVs numbers. These all support the conclusions I came to. Weirdest situation really is (so far) complete lack of big uptick in scheduled deliveries. Tesla reports 11,000 M3 in transit at June 30 along increased production rate. So, would be expecting that they try schedule 20,000 deliveries in July. But, so far activity appears to be flat to June. Troy says maybe we will see uptick soon. Who knows??!?