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VIN Assignment

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He told me it still may take about three weeks before it gets to Florida and taking delivery.
Three weeks? According to the spreadsheet, average time from config to delivery for Florida is 25 days total. I also got a call from NV yesterday. It was Owner Advisor saying my car was going into production and that I'd get a VIN when it was done, and then it would be about a week or so after that for delivery (I'm in NC)
 
Three weeks? According to the spreadsheet, average time from config to delivery for Florida is 25 days total. I also got a call from NV yesterday. It was Owner Advisor saying my car was going into production and that I'd get a VIN when it was done, and then it would be about a week or so after that for delivery (I'm in NC)
Congrats. When did you configure and what did you choose?
 
Exactly. There are 6 colors and 2 wheel options and I would assume the wheels could be swapped if needed. I think its safe to assume they are building batches based on data. If the most popular color is white, then they would know that by now and would make more white cars then say black. They would also know which wheels are more popular as well and put those wheels on more cars of the same color. The more data they have about what people want, the better they will be about building the right sized batches. This does not mean the VINs will be more uniform, it could actually mean the opposite because they will build a few hundred white cars and they might even build just as many black cars, but they wont build another batch of black cars for a couple of weeks because the demand is lower. They would run more batches of white cars because there is going to be a minimum for the paint shop that makes sense to do in a batch. I think this is why the parking lots where filling up. They would build the most optimized sized batches of each color and then just alter the frequency of how often they replenished those batches. This is really the only reason to have 2000 model 3s filling up lots for what seemed like a few weeks at a minimum. Which is why its so odd that those same lots are all but empty today. It would mean that they are building to order, which I doubt, or they are re-tooling something. Maybe dual motor? Dual motor might be offered to employees in secret so we might not even know when they first kick off production. Until people start finding the Vins in the wild. Although, they would need to register a batch of vins specific to the dual motor, so we would probably figure it out.

Its still a mystery as to why there is a dearth of VINs above 8k being reported. The biggest mystery to me is why would they send out what seems to be a large batch of invites to non-owners with promised 3-6wk deliveries at the same time they are pausing production for an update. The pause seems to have started before the invites as well, so it seems less likely that its a major issue and more likely that its something that will spike production rates. I would expect those lots to be filling up any day now if thats the case. They must put those cars somewhere while they get the batches out. 6 x 300 cars the first week, which would be 1800, so something along those lines before large convoys of car carries come to pickup loads. Then they might make 3 x 600 for a couple of weeks for the most popular colors then the last popular. Then the last week of March, 6 x 400 as we get closer to the end of Q1. I just cant imagine Tesla not hitting that 2500 production number at this point. Its been delayed 6 months at this point and I cant see it being delayed again.

Well, if they get their battery production to 2500/week, they need to run the car production line also at 2500/week. It would be a disaster if they only found out that their car production line can’t run at that speed when the battery line is producing at that rate. The only way to test the car production line at 2500/week when you can only produce batteries at 1000/week is to stop producing cars until you have several thousand batteries in stock, and then run the car line at 2500/week. So the lack of production now may just be preparation for a production run at mucht higher speed. To get the output of that higher speed run into the hands of customers, you need a lot of configurations invites, which is what we saw a couple of days ago.
 
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Well, if they get their battery production to 2500/week, they need to run the car production line also at 2500/week. It would be a disaster if they only found out that their car production line can’t run at that speed when the battery line is producing at that rate. The only way to test the car production line at 2500/week when you can only produce batteries at 1000/week is to stop producing cars until you have several thousand batteries in stock, and then run the car line at 2500/week. So the lack of production now may just be preparation for a production run at mucht higher speed. To get the output of that higher speed run into the hands of customers, you need a lot of configurations invites, which is what we saw a couple of days ago.

That was kind of where I was heading. But they dont really need to shut down for a week or more to do that burst testing, they only need to stop for a day or two to build up packs so that they have enough to run at 2500/w rate for a shift or two. For example, they make 250 cars in a single shift. You dont need to have a huge inventory of packs to test that and you only have to be shut down for a couple of days to build up that many packs. I am assuming that they had already been doing that to workout bottlenecks in production. They cant just wait until packs can be produced in high volume to determine if they can make cars in high volumes to match, which I think is what your point is. We have no idea if they are even shut down or for how long. The only thing we really know is that there have not been as many vins posted online recently and parking lots previously full of model 3s are now empty.
 
That was kind of where I was heading. But they dont really need to shut down for a week or more to do that burst testing, they only need to stop for a day or two to build up packs so that they have enough to run at 2500/w rate for a shift or two. For example, they make 250 cars in a single shift. You dont need to have a huge inventory of packs to test that and you only have to be shut down for a couple of days to build up that many packs. I am assuming that they had already been doing that to workout bottlenecks in production. They cant just wait until packs can be produced in high volume to determine if they can make cars in high volumes to match, which I think is what your point is. We have no idea if they are even shut down or for how long. The only thing we really know is that there have not been as many vins posted online recently and parking lots previously full of model 3s are now empty.

We don’t know that running 2 days at a weekly rate of 2500/week is enough to find any blocking issues. They need to be able to run at 2500/week 24/7 soon. The new german battery machine will soon cause a step function in battery pack production that they need to support in the car production line.
 
We don’t know that running 2 days at a weekly rate of 2500/week is enough to find any blocking issues. They need to be able to run at 2500/week 24/7 soon. The new german battery machine will soon cause a step function in battery pack production that they need to support in the car production line.

The assumption is that things work, so if they work when you crank up the speed then there isnt an issue. Its not like its a different production line. They could already test parts of the line at burst speeds because they dont have to build a whole car to test a specific station. They just need a way to feed that section at a higher rate.

Oh btw, pics of the Dual motor Model 3 in the wild has white seats.. coincidence or nah?

Pictures of production Model 3s
 
That’s exactly what I ordered as well just on 2/14/18. Congrats and enjoy.

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat!!!! I ordered exactly the same config on 2/15 and have not gotten any calls, yet. Come on Elon. Hook a brother up.

It may be because I called Monday to find out when I would get a Delivery Specialist assigned so that I could give the name to Tech CU.

Also, I wonder if a red batch is about to be made, which is why both of you ordered two weeks ago and haven't moved.
 
It also has be a bit paranoid that checking "e-mail" as my preferred communication method might mean I won't hear from them.
Hmmm, I just checked and only had email and SMS checked off. Just checked off phone as well. Yep, definitely getting paranoid! Haha.

I just went in and updated mine even though I don't have an invite yet and I just noticed that the communication methods are per contact on the account. If you have two contacts (I have myself and my wife), selecting the other contact will allow you to set the communication methods for that person.
 
I just went in and updated mine even though I don't have an invite yet and I just noticed that the communication methods are per contact on the account. If you have two contacts (I have myself and my wife), selecting the other contact will allow you to set the communication methods for that person.

Selected them all!
 

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Configured on 2/22 and then today spoke with my "Inside Sales Advisor" and decided to add the FSD option. I was told FSD would show up in my "build detail" in 5-7 business days and received a confirming email.
I wonder if that will have any affect on when I get my VIN#? Either positive since its more revenue for Tesla or negative because I made the change. Will probably never know but my guess it probably pushed out getting my VIN#.