June actually. Either they are more aggressive in updating their website or they saw a US order uptick on the 70D announcement. Europe's estimate is still June.
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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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June actually. Either they are more aggressive in updating their website or they saw a US order uptick on the 70D announcement. Europe's estimate is still June.
US says June for all....Europe says June for P70D and Late June for 85D and P85D.
Something else to consider when thinking of wait times and demand. There are 7weeks of production from yesterday to June 1st. If Tesla is producing 1100-1200 cars/wk, demand looks to be about the same as Jan 1st of about 10,000, and that is with 10,000+ delivered in Q1. I'm guessing a sold out Q2 by May 1st, or about 2months/8+weeks in advance of the end of the quarter, which would equate to about 10,000-12,000 cars.
Something else to consider when thinking of wait times and demand. There are 7weeks of production from yesterday to June 1st. If Tesla is producing 1100-1200 cars/wk, demand looks to be about the same as Jan 1st of about 10,000, and that is with 10,000+ delivered in Q1. I'm guessing a sold out Q2 by May 1st, or about 2months/8+weeks in advance of the end of the quarter, which would equate to about 10,000-12,000 cars.
I think the next few months of the website delivery will be really telling of how the Model X launch will go. Essentially, if the Model S wait times lengthen too much (4 month wait), it could be indicative of Model X ramp difficulties. If Model S wait times are reasonable (2-3 months), then Model X ramp up may be going reasonably well. Basically, the next few months of Model S delivery time waits should give some sort of cadence to Model X progress.
Your guess for average production is likely too optimistic. Tesla guided to produce 12k cars the second quarter in 13 weeks or an average of 923/week.
The 12K cars was guidance for deliveries, not production. Also, historically Tesla has 12 working weeks per quarter - one of the 13 weeks is usually factory down time. Q2 is somewhat unusual because there are a little more than 13 weeks in it, so production likely to be less than full 13 weeks; I would guess 12 weeks +.
chickensevil
Active Member
To add, deliveries for the quarter is always less than the production ability. It is just how these things go.
US still shows Late May for S85. All the Ds show June.
I think that Tesla does not need to raise production as per the guidance. May be some tweak here and there, but on average 1000/wk for 48 weeks is good enough for this year. The rest may come from X. I don't see any scenario YET where Tesla will beat 55K guidance.
You are right, I should have been clearer. Tesla guided to produce 12k cars for delivery which is the relevant metric if we want to estimate the order book. The fact remains that 923 is the right number to use instead of 1100-1200. Wrt to the down time, they normally announce it which they haven't for Q2 as far as I know? Still, if there is downtime in Q2, it's very possible a majority is between now and June so that would leave us with only 6 weeks of production to satisfy the order book. On the other hand, we should add a bit of orders for RHD scheduled for delivery in Q3 so that it may all be a wash. My bet is that the size of the order book for the S has not grown between beginning of this year and today.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The rear-wheel drive is still selectable for the 85. I asked about it at the service center and they are clearing out all of the old front axles, so eventually all cars will be AWD.
Whoever is in charge of updating the wait times seems to be more fastidious than in the past, as they are updating the wait times more often.
Whoever is in charge of updating the wait times seems to be more fastidious than in the past, as they are updating the wait times more often.
This false statement. With transition pipeline filled up, the deliveries == production. There was even some quarters with deliveries > production.
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Totally agreed. Sometime this year, either Elon will confess demand constraint or SP will point to the answer. It's not good for a growth company can't beat its guidance year by year. Back to 2014 Q2 ER, it's totally b***s**t to pre-announce 2k/week prodction rate by end of 2015, I don't see any good effect now except temporarily pumping the stock price to ATH.
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Totally agreed. Sometime this year, either Elon will confess demand constraint or SP will point to the answer. It's not good for a growth company can't beat its guidance year by year. Back to 2014 Q2 ER, it's totally b***s**t to pre-announce 2k/week prodction rate by end of 2015, I don't see any good effect now except temporarily pumping the stock price to ATH.
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I have no idea why they decided to pre-announce the 2k/week production rate by end of 2015 but I see no reason why they won't be there. If we were to assume Model S demand is only 800/month then they should still be flexible enough to produce 1,200 Model X which will have a large backlog and no problem filling up capacity.
chickensevil
Active Member
There has been like all of 2 quarters in total where production was lower than the number of deliveries, Q4/2013 and Q3/2014 all the rest as I recall were below. And the *only* reason they exceeded production was because they intentionally depleted their entire stock of inventory cars (cars used for show rooms/loaners/test drives). Otherwise if the production rate is constantly going up (which it should be) there will *always* be lower deliveries than production. More deliveries than production would be a bad thing unless they had a reason for it. Otherwise higher production than deliveries is the normal and is fine (within reason).
Assuming 2 weeks to the end of the month is the cutoff and they have just upped their production volume from say 900 to 1100, then at a minimum I would expect a 400 unit difference between production and deliveries. And that number can be much larger depending on the cycles for inventory cars and the nuances of shipping times quarter to quarter.
And "It's not good for a growth company can't beat its guidance year by year." I am not following the logic here. If I say Y/Y I am going to increase deliveries by 50% and instead only increase deliveries by 49.9%, are you *REALLY* going to be complaining here? That is within the margin for error. If Tesla delivers 54k this year a miss of less than 2%, are you really going to hold it against them and say this is a bad company? I would put that in the margin of error. On the same token a delivery of 56k isn't anything spectacular either.
35k from last year would have happened had they not decided to completely revamp the factory. And the revamping of the factory happened because they knew demand would be more than 35k a year. So you have a positive of higher demand than Tesla expected and people are getting mad at them for upping their amounts to handle the higher demand???
That problem from last year will absolutely *NOT* be the problem this year. That is, unless demand for both models goes higher than the maximum capacity of the new lines (but we won't know that until 2016 anyway).
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In theory, it's possible. But I don't expect such magic that TM can ramp up >400/week for Model X by year end. So the 2K/week production rate will be largely sit idle by then.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
green1
Active Member
Hard to clear out cars when you don't build any ahead of time until someone orders. Clearing out parts for specific types of cars makes a lot of sense though. Clear out the front axles before you make everything AWD.
I suspect this is the same reason we have 2 seat types right now, to clear out the old seats before next gen seats become standard.
55K guidance for 2015 is already lowballed, so we definitely want TM to beat the guidance instead of even marginal miss. But some early clues already show that TM might miss the guidance.
First, AJ's note yesterdy predicted TM will miss the annual guidance by 4K, usually AJ is the analyst walks closest to TM and his prediction for Q4 miss was closest to final Q4 number;
Second, in this video Tesla Motors Dealership in Salt Lake City, Utah - YouTube, James Chen used 50-55K production for 2015, I would think it's a soft signal from TM officer that annual guidance might be missed;
Third, as I posted in short term thread, Ricardo Reyes said that Model X won't be delivered until September, so it's highly possible that model X won't contribute more than 5K deliveries for 2015.
As we know, with TM has capability ramping up to 2k/week exiting 2015. There is no doubt that TM has production margin to well beat 55K goal. But the problem is the S demand might be not as strong as Elon expected and X production ramp might be slower than expected. So two things combined together, it might lead to 2015 guidance miss.
The production problem in 2014 will not repeat for Model S, but it's very likely to repeat more or less for Model X ramp up. But we won't see that until Q4. Personally I don't like to push the production upgrade and ramp until the 2nd half of the year, if any mistake made, then it's hard to remedy.
First, AJ's note yesterdy predicted TM will miss the annual guidance by 4K, usually AJ is the analyst walks closest to TM and his prediction for Q4 miss was closest to final Q4 number;
Second, in this video Tesla Motors Dealership in Salt Lake City, Utah - YouTube, James Chen used 50-55K production for 2015, I would think it's a soft signal from TM officer that annual guidance might be missed;
Third, as I posted in short term thread, Ricardo Reyes said that Model X won't be delivered until September, so it's highly possible that model X won't contribute more than 5K deliveries for 2015.
As we know, with TM has capability ramping up to 2k/week exiting 2015. There is no doubt that TM has production margin to well beat 55K goal. But the problem is the S demand might be not as strong as Elon expected and X production ramp might be slower than expected. So two things combined together, it might lead to 2015 guidance miss.
The production problem in 2014 will not repeat for Model S, but it's very likely to repeat more or less for Model X ramp up. But we won't see that until Q4. Personally I don't like to push the production upgrade and ramp until the 2nd half of the year, if any mistake made, then it's hard to remedy.
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How do we know it is low-balled? We assumed it was low-balled but it might be challenging for Tesla. If AJ walks most closely he released a note on 2/20 only 9 days after guidance estimating 50,100 deliveries for the year. So we would have theoretically known then that guidance was not low-balled. Honestly I don't think any analyst is predicting a guidance beat so this forum is the only place I have seen the estimate called a low-ball.
EDIT: Here is the 2/20 note from AJ: Morgan Stanley's Tesla Analyst Cuts His EPS Estimates But Looks Past The Implications - Forbes
EDIT: And I should be clear, based on the mere 100 people looking at this forum right now I would take the analysts position as the metric from which TSLA will be measured. So even a guidance miss for the year will not bring the stock below $200 IMO. If they are under 50k, yes, but anything above 50k with good Model X reviews I don't think the stock will be this low.
Given demand isn't an issue, given production constrained, both stated by Elon many many times. 2015 entering with 1k/week production rate, exiting with 2k/week production rate, 48 production weeks (one week off per quarter). Even an elementary school student knows the annaul guidance 55K is lowballed from production perspective. If it turns out not lowballed, then only one explanation that demand IS an issue to meet guidance.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Correct. The front assembly unit used on the vintage cars, with no motor, will be used on the 85 model until they exhaust their parts supply. Then all cars will be AWD. That's my understanding, anyhoo.
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