sundaymorning
Active Member
Trust Elon or Maoing's theory? hmmmm I think I'll go with what Elon stated himself last week.
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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Trust Elon or Maoing's theory? hmmmm I think I'll go with what Elon stated himself last week.
I disagree that Elon's comments are not accurate when he speaks about present and facts that are measurable, like current production rate. I think the misperception of inaccuracy comes from people expecting Elon to give extremely detailed future projections and that is just not possible for anyone.
Regarding production issues or more broadly supply chain issues, I would expect Tesla to get many more issues in the future as the complexity of their supply chain grows by the day. They may overcome one issue, three more may appear or old issues may reappear, that is how it is, not a smooth sailing. They may hit 1200/week, then fall down, then rise again. Variation in numbers over a short term will always be present.
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Current wait time pattern at least brings a question. Tesla normally prioritizes expensive models but not this time with S85D compared to S85 and S60.
I expect PD delivery to stay where it is now for another month - prioritize delivery over other models.
If not parts/supply issues with S85D, what is causing this?
I expect PD delivery to stay where it is now for another month - prioritize delivery over other models.
If not parts/supply issues with S85D, what is causing this?
What makes the most sense is that it is a supply issue for the small motor. They are then prioritizing P85D deliveries which only use one small motor and provide more gross margin over the 85D orders that use 2. It means they did not anticipate the demand for the dual motor versions of the car. I don't think it will affect the number of deliveries because I think they can still get plenty of orders for P85D and the RWD variants to make up for the shortage. Anyway this is all speculation.
chickensevil
Active Member
Motors are made wholly in house from stands of copper and other metal pieces... I don't see why they would have a production issue getting the new motors... Unless the smaller motor is made on a different line from the larger motor and that line's run rate isn't high enough yet for them to self supply enough motors for the crazy demand they are getting on both versions? That or we are thinking about this too deeply and it is just the normal shifting around of orders.
mejojo
Active Member
I don't know how often they send off a load across the Atlantic, but I have a feeling they are building all types to ship over there.
One fellow in Sweden said he was told his S85D would complete production Feb 2.
Breser said his was showing "in production" as of 1/17.
On Jan 14 Nick G at factory told me mine should be ready "about this time next month", so mid-Feb for Fremont pick-up.
It seems to me they may be prioritizing a batch of European builds to get delivery in Q1, so just moving people around. I wouldn't think anything we've seen in those threads imply an inability to build the things.
BTW the motor build is pretty interesting...if you haven't seen it, you can skip to 5:30 in this How Its Made Dream Cars S02E10: Tesla Model S - YouTube
One fellow in Sweden said he was told his S85D would complete production Feb 2.
Breser said his was showing "in production" as of 1/17.
On Jan 14 Nick G at factory told me mine should be ready "about this time next month", so mid-Feb for Fremont pick-up.
It seems to me they may be prioritizing a batch of European builds to get delivery in Q1, so just moving people around. I wouldn't think anything we've seen in those threads imply an inability to build the things.
BTW the motor build is pretty interesting...if you haven't seen it, you can skip to 5:30 in this How Its Made Dream Cars S02E10: Tesla Model S - YouTube
I do. The existing BIW production has capacity of 800 cars/80 hrs week, while the output of the factory is currently is at 1100-1200 cars/week. Until the new BIW line is operational TM are already operating existing BIW line at 110-120 hrs per week. See my post in this thread for more details.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Maoing,
Tesla will be production constraint for the next decade as demand will outstrip supply for as far as the eye can see. I think you may be cherry picking data by stating that Tesla is "production constraint", a tactic shorts used often use, especially in q1 2014. Shorts will often say, "if Tesla starts with X amount in Q1, there's no way they can reach y amounts by this year end..." However, the ramp up of model S doesn't follow a linear graph, it looks more like an S curve and Elon has gone into great details about this the beginning of every quarter. You can visit Earlier CC to listen in, what really matters in terms of production is what Tesla does at the end of the year, which is the exit rate. With a firm grip on the exit rate, Tesla can project what its capabilities are for the entire year, which is also based on demand. What ever happens in between of each quarter, is simply noise.
Not only will be get 2015 guidence during this QR, we will also get the exit rate for 2015, which will be very exciting for forward looking guidence.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Suday, my original questions is why TM can't use 3 shifts to boost production, i.e. ramp up production quickly to 1500/week level in Q1 for example. But Vgrin pointed out that BIW is the bottleneck and will be resolved in Q1. So my conclusion is we'll still see low 1000ish production rate in Q1 and probably we won't see very inspiring Q1 guidance.
I agree TM can achieve 2000/week production rate by end of 2015, but the process could throw very different prospect for 2015 guidance. If it grows linearly, then 2015 guidance should be 75K, there will be huge difference between bump production rate significantly in Q1 or Q4.
I agree TM can achieve 2000/week production rate by end of 2015, but the process could throw very different prospect for 2015 guidance. If it grows linearly, then 2015 guidance should be 75K, there will be huge difference between bump production rate significantly in Q1 or Q4.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I apologize if I misunderstood you, based on your previous posts I was under the impression that you were throwing some FUD into quarterly production constraints that Tesla is somehow underperforming. I don't think Tesla's game plan is to jumpstart 1st quarter with a significant ramp to say 1,500, that comes with some time, planning, hiring, training and logistics. I fully expect for bottlenecks along the way, they've experienced this since 2012, but thankfully all that is rectifiable, through means only Elon and Gilbert will have insights. For all we know, these things will have worked themselves out by QR as it would be halfway through February when Elon reports to shareholders.
chickensevil
Active Member
As far as I'm concerned I will be happy with a delivery projection that is slightly higher than whatever ~11k number they throw out since I am eager to break the trend of going forward on numbers and then stepping back. The key here should be that with the factory upgrade happening at the same time (that is supposed to be non impacting) thus would be a very good sign for us. Give me 12-13k for Q1 deliveries and call it a day.
It's been only five days since the last update, but delivery times changed again - by at least a month:
It appears that the incoming order rate is continuing to be very strong, with the AWD orders continuing to come at a strong pace. During the Q4 ER call Elon mentioned that a conservative estimate of the MS demand is around 50K per year. He also mention that when adding orders for the "D", the demand is perhaps 70K per year, with the caveat that this higher number is probably not sustainable because it has a big lump of initial orders for "D" cars.
These two numbers - 50K for RWD cars and additional 20K for AWD cars, however, are very close to the AWD percentage intake for other premium brands - about 40%. I think it is reasonable to assume that about 40% of the MS orders will be AWD, and perhaps the healthy portion of the 40% of AWD orders are not just converts form those who were planning to buy RWD MS, but actually new orders from people that did not consider RWD MS.
- US and Canada - 60 and 85 wait times increased by a month - from late March to late April
- Continental Europe - 85D wait time increased by more than a month - from May to late June
- GB - P85D wait time increase by a month - from June to July
It appears that the incoming order rate is continuing to be very strong, with the AWD orders continuing to come at a strong pace. During the Q4 ER call Elon mentioned that a conservative estimate of the MS demand is around 50K per year. He also mention that when adding orders for the "D", the demand is perhaps 70K per year, with the caveat that this higher number is probably not sustainable because it has a big lump of initial orders for "D" cars.
These two numbers - 50K for RWD cars and additional 20K for AWD cars, however, are very close to the AWD percentage intake for other premium brands - about 40%. I think it is reasonable to assume that about 40% of the MS orders will be AWD, and perhaps the healthy portion of the 40% of AWD orders are not just converts form those who were planning to buy RWD MS, but actually new orders from people that did not consider RWD MS.
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Great info, thanks for compiling it.
Looking at the table, some patterns of scheduled deliveries emerge.
It may be that Tesla is bunching together the deliveries as below:
US and Canada
GB
Europe
China
Japan, HK and Australia
That is one way of interpreting it.
Other possibilities include that Tesla may want to prioritize deliveries of high margin P85D to a local market, at the expense of pushing P85D deliveries to more remote markets to further months.
I think TM always leave some quarter end production for NA market high end model. It used to be P85 and now it's P85D.
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