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When will Tesla offer a vehicle with a listed range of 500+ miles?
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ucmndd
Well-Known Member
I don't see this as a company priority. ~400 miles is "enough" for almost all scenarios and current battery tech means piling ever more lithium into a car at significant weight and expense.
Take a look at Lucid's sales of their 500+ mile halo cars to see how much value the market puts on 500 miles of range at that price. Nobody is buying $150k cars right now - doubly nobody is buying $150k EVs.
Take a look at Lucid's sales of their 500+ mile halo cars to see how much value the market puts on 500 miles of range at that price. Nobody is buying $150k cars right now - doubly nobody is buying $150k EVs.
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Tam
Well-Known Member
Cybertruck: 500+ miles.
Roadster: 620 miles.
There's no announcement that those would change.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
The roadster is vaporware, they just picked a random number that sounded big six years ago. They're no closer to delivering it than they were in 2017.
There's practically zero chance Tesla is announcing a 500+ mile CT on November 30. If that happens I'll eat my hat. That's at LEAST a 200kwh battery. More like 250kwh. We can't still possibly believe this is true with current battery tech in 2023.
When the demand exceeds any potential supply. I'm going to guess that 90% of EV owners don't need 500+ miles or are willing to pay the premium for it. It doesn't make sense financially. Gotta think about the regular folks. Tesla is not Lamborghini.
It will happen when enough people demand it. Until then, it's not gonna happen. It's not a sound business decision.
It will happen when enough people demand it. Until then, it's not gonna happen. It's not a sound business decision.
CTruck_BMW
23’ MS
500 miles Model S means than can make a 400 miles Model S cheaper. They would still sell a 400 miles Model S in my view at a cheaper price or current price rather than offering a more expensive 500 miles range one. Tesla does not like multiple variants of the same car, and 400 miles is more than enough and is actually the sweet spot. While I think 500 miles is great i just don't see it as a tesla thing or a priority.
I'm hopeful the news about different weights for the Cybertruck models means there is one top version that will have the 500 mile version, but I agree it is highly unlikely. Pretty clear the roadster vaporware doesn't really count for this discussion.
I fully agree that most don't "need" that much range with all the superchargers now, but I wouldn't rule out there not being demand. Range anxiety is still a thing for a lot of non adopting ICE drives and folks in very rural areas. Also, us roadtrip warriors have memories of being able to cruse at 80 to 85 and real off ~400 miles without stopping.
What is the actual cost of the extra cells / weight? $5K ... $8K? That's why I'm not willing to fully say it wouldn't sell if they could keep it at only an extra $10K to $12K.
I fully agree that most don't "need" that much range with all the superchargers now, but I wouldn't rule out there not being demand. Range anxiety is still a thing for a lot of non adopting ICE drives and folks in very rural areas. Also, us roadtrip warriors have memories of being able to cruse at 80 to 85 and real off ~400 miles without stopping.
What is the actual cost of the extra cells / weight? $5K ... $8K? That's why I'm not willing to fully say it wouldn't sell if they could keep it at only an extra $10K to $12K.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Technology may be here, but the question is commercialization.
ONE (Our Next Energy) did a demo in mid-December of 2021 in the cold Michigan winter on the Model S switched out with the 207.3 kWh battery (higher density in the same space) and achieved 725 miles at 55 MPH in real life and 882 miles on a dynamometer.
Prototype Battery Powers Tesla Model S For 752 Miles On One Charge
55 MPH is too impractical but maybe its EPA will be above 500.
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Tam
Well-Known Member
Oh. Before its last gasp on its deathbed due to bankruptcy, Saab's engineers produced the Emily GT with a 175 kWh battery and over a 600-mile range.
windingroad.com
Watch: NEVS Emily GT Revealed on Top Gear
The NEVS Emily GT was unveiled recently and receiving high praise from the prestigious British TV show, Top Gear
windingroad.com
Why stop at a measly 500? I'd like a 5,000 mile range EV. Then I can drive to Mexico City and back without stopping to charge.
Seriously though... diminishing returns, economics, natural resources. There are many good reasons to stop pursuing more and more range. Humans don't make ICE sedans with 40 gallon gas tanks.
If anything, EVs could use *less* range - you get to wake up with a "full tank" each day. Most drivers won't drive the entire range of today's Tesla in a single day. Bigger battery equals more dead weight.
The only real benefit to longer range is to have less charging stops during long road trips... but humans need to pull over to eat and use the bathroom anyways. Do people want to drive for 10 hours without stopping?
So my answer is... NEVER. We never need 500 miles of range.
Seriously though... diminishing returns, economics, natural resources. There are many good reasons to stop pursuing more and more range. Humans don't make ICE sedans with 40 gallon gas tanks.
If anything, EVs could use *less* range - you get to wake up with a "full tank" each day. Most drivers won't drive the entire range of today's Tesla in a single day. Bigger battery equals more dead weight.
The only real benefit to longer range is to have less charging stops during long road trips... but humans need to pull over to eat and use the bathroom anyways. Do people want to drive for 10 hours without stopping?
So my answer is... NEVER. We never need 500 miles of range.
doghousePVD
My grandfather’s car
For daily commuting 500 miles may be excessive. For towing, a nominal 500 mile range is only about 250. Often one tows to remote spots (round trip). Some of really need 500+ miles, and are willing to pay for it.
Most folks don’t need 500.
Most folks don’t need 500.
I most definitely want a 500 mile range Model S and it should not be ridiculously priced like Lucid Grant Touring is. Or worst case at least a Model S that gets a real 400 mile range and not the over optimistic EPA range that it claims. Model S and Lucid both use the EPA’s overly optimistic range test, while BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, etc use the other more conservative test. So, when they state estimated EPA range their cars typically deliver more than EPA range compared to Tesla and Lucid that give consistently less.
So, give me a Model S with real 400 mile range, not 20% to 30% less.
Auto companies are going to have to do better, as the amount of people buying EV’s is slowing way down in the US, especially higher dollar EV’s. And the non Tesla charging network still stinks, which is only helping slow the sales of EV’s.
So, give me a Model S with real 400 mile range, not 20% to 30% less.
Auto companies are going to have to do better, as the amount of people buying EV’s is slowing way down in the US, especially higher dollar EV’s. And the non Tesla charging network still stinks, which is only helping slow the sales of EV’s.
Check out the actual number of people buying EVs in the US - Q3 2023 sales crossed 300k for the first time.
How is that way down?
Yep - you can find specific high dollar models that have declining sales. They all probably had a lot of demand when first arrived. But at some point, Tesla has help neuter demand for high dollar EVs. Even if you have money to burn, paying $150k for a car that has a $40k price decrease in the next year makes you feel really stupid.
Anyone paying a lot of money for an EV knows that can happen and there aren't too many people who want to be caught doing that. No - buy a 911 - the price is stable.
How is that way down?
Yep - you can find specific high dollar models that have declining sales. They all probably had a lot of demand when first arrived. But at some point, Tesla has help neuter demand for high dollar EVs. Even if you have money to burn, paying $150k for a car that has a $40k price decrease in the next year makes you feel really stupid.
Anyone paying a lot of money for an EV knows that can happen and there aren't too many people who want to be caught doing that. No - buy a 911 - the price is stable.
They have plateoued. Why would GM and now Honda slow down or delay EV manufacturing? Market is slowing for EV’s, thus that is why they are lowering prices, which includes Tesla. Most people I know have know desire to have an EV, no matter how well I talk my Tesla up.
Read today’s WSJ article on EV’s.
Read today’s WSJ article on EV’s.
shahryaran
Member
You can buy this right now and go 500 miles.
ChooseFreedom
Member
All new car sales are down right now, not just EV's.
When an average car loan now has a double digit interest rate, the average person can't afford to buy any car.
The people who can afford a six figure car don't typically worry about the interest rates.
And yeah, the big 7 manufacturers are feeling that too. So of course they're pausing/slowing pretty much all of their projects.
But they also recently decided to join the NACS standard on future models, so that was going to delay many of the EV projects already underway because they have to stop and redesign some things to do that.
Then there was the UAW strike that shut down production.
So you have to take a more macro view to really see where is the current landscape. Zoom out.
Overall, EV's are still trending upward.
There's no announcement they won't
.Roadster - maybe it'll be 500 miles. Clearly building this thing isn't a priority (and that's understandable it's a low volume halo car).
Cybertruck on the other hand - 500 miles, really? In the past Tesla has typically started production of a specific vehicle class with a limited set of trims (back in the day Model 3 was RWD only!). In the case of Cybertruck, this thing is huge. Tesla knows that 300 mile range EVs are quite usable today and we know 4680 cell ramp has been pretty slow. If I were Tesla there's no way I'd sell a 500 mile range variant up front. There's just no benefit to Tesla, they'll be able to sell these things easy.
There's even a downside for Tesla: longer supercharging times when people decide to deep charge a 200 kwh pack.
Prediction: in 2 years we see a 450 mile CT and in 4 years a 500+ mile variant.
The Cybertruck is expected to use the new batteries. Just like the semi, they can produce a new battery and fit it into the newly designed chassis. I would certainly expect Tesla to reach their 500 mile goal on the Cybertruck, one way or another.
With newer Teslas having so much faster charging times, and Superchargers popping up all over the place, there is little demand for a more expensive and heavier vehicle.
Larger battery packs means they can build fewer cars, as they are still battery constrained.
Currently, having a larger battery pack means you would need to stay at a charger longer to get back to that 500 mile range, and few want to do that.
Larger battery packs means they can build fewer cars, as they are still battery constrained.
Currently, having a larger battery pack means you would need to stay at a charger longer to get back to that 500 mile range, and few want to do that.
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