Why are turnkey Solar PV systems so ridiculously overpriced?

[nwdiver]

Thanks for the information.
And FWIW, net metering as an inducement for homeowners to buy PV is pretty easily circumvented by (future) hostile PUCs by adding on special surchages to PV homeowners. Read NWDiver's thread for a nasty example.

For the record... I think it'll be far easier and cheaper to fight the PRC and achieve fair and equitable treatment of DERs than it would be to abandon the grid.

The issue in NM appears to be approaching resolution. SPS was able to slip Rate 59 under the radar because no one was paying attention. Well... people are paying attention now. And they are failing to get their latest revision of Rate 59 approved.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I honestly was wondering if 'regulatory certainty' is PC talk for 'subsidy.' In the case of simple net metering I would say no, but if I am reading your post correctly, that arrangement has not been finalized. And FWIW, net metering as an inducement for homeowners to buy PV is pretty easily circumvented by (future) hostile PUCs by adding on special surchages to PV homeowners. Read NWDiver's thread for a nasty example.

Legacy fossil fuel interests can get away with different levels of hostility toward solar in different regions of the country. Clearly the Wild West states are dealing with full on sabotage at the moment, but now that PA has a decent governor locked in for 8 years there's no way that level of nonsense would fly here.

It's kind of like when the Affordable Care Act was passed or when a budget bill is sitting in Congress for too long. The biggest issue was that installers had no visibility even 2 years down the road, so without them willing to make the necessary investments solar could not get to scale around here. Pennsylvania is by no means "locked in" with permanent net metering or anything, but we've passed the tipping point where installers feel it's safe to expand without getting blindsided by something like the Nevada PUC decision.

Demand is not massive yet, but the word is getting out. The information will start flying this spring/summer and the entire area will be more informed by Labor Day. I'm confident that once people are informed and comfortable demand will ramp exponentially since hardware is so cheap now.

 

[miimura]

One of the reasons that California has robust solar uptake is that the if you get an interconnect on the current PG&E NEM Tariff, you are guaranteed 20 years on that tariff. Of course, they can muck with the rates as much as they please, but you get annual true-up and you are only billed for net kWh for each TOU period, regardless of how much you feed in and take out from the grid.

 

[SageBrush]

One of the reasons that California has robust solar uptake is that the if you get an interconnect on the current PG&E NEM Tariff, you are guaranteed 20 years on that tariff. Of course, they can muck with the rates as much as they please, but you get annual true-up and you are only billed for net kWh for each TOU period, regardless of how much you feed in and take out from the grid.

Yep ... and I hope CA has the political will to prevent the utilities from screwing the PV owners while continuing to stay within the net metering laws.

I apologize for the pessimism. The NWdiver thread has affected me dearly (even though he is somewhat optimistic that things will turn out OK.)

 

[nwdiver]

Yep ... and I hope CA has the political will to prevent the utilities from screwing the PV owners while continuing to stay within the net metering laws.

I apologize for the pessimism. The NWdiver thread has affected me dearly (even though he is somewhat optimistic that things will turn out OK.)

'Necessary' might be a better way to think of it than 'optimism'... I think we'll find a equitable way to pay for the grid because we have to. At the end of the day sharing generation and storage with a robust inter-connected grid is nearly an order of magnitude cheaper than not. WK never revealed the final cost of his system other than to say that 'costs got kinda out of hand' and he still needs to import sometimes...

The utility business model will slowly evolve. It's currently laughable... SPS is justifying their current rate increase due to a revenue drop in the oil patch. They sank $millions$ in infrastructure to support more pumping when oil prices were high... now that expected revenue isn't there. It's actually kinda childish... they take their total capital investment... decide they need a 10% return... and divide that 'required' income among their customers. If they make a bad investment as they did with expanding for increased oil production they raise rates on everyone else.

 

[SageBrush]

The utility business model will slowly evolve. It's currently laughable... SPS is justifying their current rate increase due to a revenue drop in the oil patch. They sank $millions$ in infrastructure to support more pumping when oil prices were high... now that expected revenue isn't there. It's actually kinda childish... they take their total capital investment... decide they need a 10% return... and divide that 'required' income among their customers. If they make a bad investment as they did with expanding for increased oil production they raise rates on everyone else.

I call it perverse -- not only does the utility avoid penalties for bad decisions, the current system encourages them to pick the most expensive capital investment.

The people paying for half finished nuclear reactors know all about this system. On the other hand ... if cheap rates is the only metric one looks at, much of the country has come out OKish. Which is actually surprising to me since the setup is ripe for corruption: ignorant political appointees who sign off on utility cost sheets. It is only due to home PV that the weaknesses in the system have been so glaringly exposed.

 

[renim]

The reason distributed solar is so expensive in the USA is the same reason why utility solar is so cheap in the USA.

The ITC encourages expensive distributed solar and cheap utility solar.

The same amount of subsidy applied differently could encourage both distributed and utility solar to be cheap.

 

[neroden]

I cannot explain why rooftop solar has much, much higher "soft costs" in the US than it does in Germany or Australia. But I would like it to stop ASAP.

 

[neroden]

View attachment 167451

OK, this is ultra helpful. So, somewhat higher profits; somewhat higher permitting; significantly higher labor, but the *big* differences are "overhead", "customer acq.", and "supply chain".

"Customer acq" means they're spending money on salesmen instead of making the product cheaper. This should eventually fix itself.
"Overhead" is senseless and has to go down eventually as people figure out how to run a business effectively at the correct scale.

But what the heck is "supply chain"? Why are "supply chain" costs way higher in the US and Germany?

 

[nwdiver]

But what the heck is "supply chain"? Why are "supply chain" costs way higher in the US and Germany?

I've noticed that a lot of US installers nickel and dime you every chance they get... they're like used car dealers. You want bolts to hold them panels down? That's $5/ bolt. You want wires? That's $0.75/ft. They mark up EVERYTHING... They have an idea what they want to charge (based on what their peers charge) and make the invoice match...

 

[FlasherZ]

I've noticed that a lot of US installers nickel and dime you every chance they get... they're like used car dealers. You want bolts to hold them panels down? That's $5/ bolt. You want wires? That's $0.75/ft. They mark up EVERYTHING... They have an idea what they want to charge (based on what their peers charge) and make the invoice match...

My observation has been the opposite, luckily. They just say $4/W, all-in. So at least I know where the profit cushion is.

You get the behavior you describe where the person doing the design and installation is the same guy managing the BOM, who sees the cost of specialty equipment.

(PS: picked up a trio of deep scanners - Bosch D-Tect 120 & 150, and GMS120 for $425... freight truck arrives with inverters and mounting gear today. By tomorrow I'll have the little stuff I missed on the original BOM - Soladeck guts. This is getting real!)

 

[Iwantone]

Subbed.

 

[nwdiver]

My observation has been the opposite, luckily. They just say $4/W, all-in. So at least I know where the profit cushion is.

Yeah... I've seen it both ways.... but the $$/w number is usually lower when the cost isn't itemized.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

But what the heck is "supply chain"? Why are "supply chain" costs way higher in the US and Germany?

Germany has been at this for a LONG time. They put legislation in place with payback rate certainty in like 2002, that allowed investment to begin throughout the entire install supply line and it took them another few years to get things up to scale. Once that happens, competition takes care of efficiency naturally.

Pennsylvania's solar market is maybe 6 months to a year old. Nevada has been reset back to zero and will sit there until certainty is provided. California has been up and running for a while, so quality installs are much cheaper.

 

[neroden]

I'm keeping an eye on these prices because I was hoping that getting in on a community solar project would be a good deal. But even for *community solar*, which ought to have utility-scale pricing, the ROI isn't there yet; I can do better with pretty conservative TSLA trading, even after considering taxation. Since I'm already buying renewable energy in a "choose your provider" type deal, I don't feel I gain anything "green" by getting in on the project, so I'm analyzing it as strictly an investment decision.

Bring the (after-subsidy) all-in price down to $1.33/watt and I'm in...

 

[nwdiver]

Bring the (after-subsidy) all-in price down to $1.33/watt and I'm in...

DIY is ~$1.20... pre-subsidy...

 

[strider]

Ok, this thread has gotten me really fired up. Sorry to derail this thread but can someone recommend a good site or book for DIY solar? I'm thinking going with the QuickMountPV rackless system and Enphase integrated grounding microinverters for simplicity. But I could use some more background on all the other bits and bobs you need. Also where do you buy as a DIY'er? I found renvu.com and they carry quickmountpv and enphase. Is there another place that offers better prices?

Also, it looks like the smaller wattage panels tend to be cheaper per watt. So would you only go with larger ones if you're short on roof space? I'm gathering it may be like computer hard drive prices where there's a step-change when you get into larger size where the price/unit jumps up.

 

[nwdiver]

Ok, this thread has gotten me really fired up. Sorry to derail this thread but can someone recommend a good site or book for DIY solar? I'm thinking going with the QuickMountPV rackless system and Enphase integrated grounding microinverters for simplicity. But I could use some more background on all the other bits and bobs you need. Also where do you buy as a DIY'er? I found renvu.com and they carry quickmountpv and enphase. Is there another place that offers better prices?

Also, it looks like the smaller wattage panels tend to be cheaper per watt. So would you only go with larger ones if you're short on roof space? I'm gathering it may be like computer hard drive prices where there's a step-change when you get into larger size where the price/unit jumps up.

My new favorite source for equipment is RES supply. A close 2nd to civic solar. Far and away the cheapest source for PV modules is sun electronics.

To an extent more efficient modules are usually the better choice. Keep in mind that you're also using less racking per watt with a more efficient module. So you could end up paying more overall if you pay less for a more efficient module. Unless it's a killer deal I wouldn't go smaller than 250w panels.

If you find a good source for the Quickmount fast rack let me know... I'm still looking. The system looks intriguing.

I'm also not a huge fan of micro inverters like Enphase due to cost unless you're working with shading issues and multiple angles. Even then... the new SMA inverters have 3 MPPT trackers so there are fewer and fewer advantages. Enphase inverters cost about twice as much as a string inverter. As module prices have fallen I've started oversizing the arrays I help build... I try to ensure an oversize ratio of ~1.3... this further mitigates the efficiency advantage of micro vs string inverters.

 

[FlasherZ]

In full disclosure, it was nwdiver who pointed me at RES Supply and Sun Electronics as well, so I thank him. I can second that they're reasonably easy to work with. Putting together your first BOM for a system involves a lot of work to ensure you have all the parts necessary.

I went with Iron Ridge racking from RES -- and I applied for / received a sample kit from Iron Ridge as well. The system is very well designed. While I haven't installed them yet, I'm impressed with the "flashfoot" that they offer for composite/shingle roof - my biggest concern is creating a leaky roof.

 

[strider]

My new favorite source for equipment is RES supply. A close 2nd to civic solar. Far and away the cheapest source for PV modules is sun electronics.

To an extent more efficient modules are usually the better choice. Keep in mind that you're also using less racking per watt with a more efficient module. So you could end up paying more overall if you pay less for a more efficient module. Unless it's a killer deal I wouldn't go smaller than 250w panels.

If you find a good source for the Quickmount fast rack let me know... I'm still looking. The system looks intriguing.

I'm also not a huge fan of micro inverters like Enphase due to cost unless you're working with shading issues and multiple angles. Even then... the new SMA inverters have 3 MPPT trackers so there are fewer and fewer advantages. Enphase inverters cost about twice as much as a string inverter. As module prices have fallen I've started oversizing the arrays I help build... I try to ensure an oversize ratio of ~1.3... this further mitigates the efficiency advantage of micro vs string inverters.

Thanks for the info! The only retail outlet I've found for the QuickRack products is Products & Equipment for Solar Installers & Home Owners | RENVU Ressupply carries quickmount but they don't show the quickrack pieces, just the QuickMounts for like an iron ridge rail.

The microinverters just seem a lot more simple to me because at that point I'm only dealing with AC but I haven't yet done the math. Enphase also suggest oversizing their microinverters but it's more in the 1.2 range (300W panel and 250W inverter).

Do you have any suggestions on a good book/site to learn end-end? I've browsed a few things on youtube but some of the info seems dodgy.

I won't be taking this project on until the Fall so I have time to do a lot more reading.