Why bother to pre-order the new Model 3 (or whatever it is called now)

[sandange]

Hi new member here
Have a lot of reading to do on this forum and always wanting to learn more about Tesla & Ev's
I am not a Tesla owner but one of those new people (one of the masses that Tesla wants to attract with the Model 3)
We are 4 year EV veteran drivers with over 138,000 km 85,000 miles and presently drive our second i Miev 2014.
We plan to reserve on the 31st at the Tesla store here in Montreal Canada.
Why ? because we want to support and see Tesla succeed in rooting Ev's, bringing the availability & affordability to the Masses.
We paid $ 35,000 Canadian for our first i Miev 2012. Not priced too far from the Base Model 3.
Whether or not we will end up purchasing a Model 3 will depend on several factors for us.
We are looking forward to moving up to a Tesla and hope the circumstance at the time of availability are favorable.

 

[Krugerrand]

So once they knock off the current owners etc couldn't you just go onto the Tesla website and order a car and get it in 3 months? Therefore if they start shipping late 2017 you could feasibly wait until cars have been on the roads for a while and order in early 2018 and get a car a few months later.

You're certainly free to try that strategy, but I'll take the bet that that 3 month order to receiving timeline isn't going to happen for at least a year following the production of the first Model ≡. There are a lot of people who believe Tesla is going to get a year+++ worth of reservations for the Model ≡ before they produce the very first one. That's why if you want any chance of getting your car in 2018 (provided that Tesla can hit the stated timeline) you'll get in line asap.

 

[CaptainKirk]

By making a reservation, I am as a consumer saying, "EV's are the future, they are here now, and Tesla is the only one making a compelling one". It makes no difference to me if I have to wait until late 2017 or even 2018 for that matter, but it makes it very clear that I don't want a compromised EV. A car is not a trivial purchase, but good things come to those who wait. I am willing to wait for a Model 3, and I'm voting with my wallet.

 

[dsm363]

Check the article DC Quick Charging Battle Just Beginning: CHAdeMO Vs. SAE Combo Vs. Tesla Supercharger - Inside EVs
Basically:
Bringing the required power to the charger includes both the cost of the hardware as well as the cost of connecting to the grid at the required level. The majority of utility companies around the world supported CHAdeMO’s view in eventually setting the most appropriate power level at 50KW.


Because your early deposit will give you very little if any priority over. Check the Model X forum. Unless, of course, you believe Tesla will collect 500000 pre-orders by April 1st.


Federal credit is a very much an unpredictable target. And it looks like you will be better of to get the tax credit if you order the car with the bigger battery option with or without early reservation.

Again are you sure you are correct? You said 110A but then point to 50kW of power. You said "the CHAdeMO provides about 110A versus 126A for 85kwh battery". Power is Volts x Amps so just listing Amps at one point in the charge cycle and trying to make them look the same isn't helpful. The Superchargers now start off at 135kW of power. So what's your point? Remember you said "On top of that a maximum power output of a CHAdeMO charger is just twice lower then maximum output of Supercharger." Why would you say 'twice lower' instead of half? Sounds like you are trying to make CHAdeMO sound better than it is. If you are comfortable charging a 90kWh and maybe soon a 100kWh battery at 50kWh then twice lower the power to you. I'll take 135kW or more and get done faster.

You said you could just wait until the Model 3 rolls of the line, look at it and order then have one 3 months later. I don't think so. Not if they have 100,000+ orders by then. Your early deposit will get you your car sooner so if that interest you then fine. If it doesn't don't do it. Not really that hard.

Again, you are misinformed. The tax credit is on number of cars Tesla sells in the US. Any battery above 16kWh (the exact size of the old Volt battery) gets the max credit assuming you qualify. My guess is the Model 3 will have a larger pack than 16kWh but you may feel differently. If the Model 3 is a success and you wait until launch day, you'll likely get your car after Tesla has already hit their 200,000 cars sold (Roadster, Model S and X included) and the credits starts to phase out. Good effort though.

 

[jkk_]

There are a lot of people who believe Tesla is going to get a year+++ worth of reservations for the Model ≡ before they produce the very first one.

I've seen plenty of these opinions presented here on the forum, but I haven't seen them said by any analytics or other professionals (haven't been looking either so that's the probable reason). Would you happen to have any links for me to check out? I'm wondering if "Joe Average" thinks like people here do and is willing to place a deposit for x years before even being able to configure his/her car as it is my understanding that for average person the availability (getting car quickly*) plays a big part?

I have no doubts that the demand will be there, at least eventually, but I'm separating reservations and placing a real order in my mind.

*) Yes, you can make the argument that "well placing the reservation makes people get their car quicker" but what I mean is that the general public might be more inclined towards products that are available straight out of store or within couple of months of placing an order. And as such, I would expect the demand for Model 3 to increase with the availability of Model 3.

Edit: wording

 

[eloder]

So, I don't see why EV manufacturer should have it's own proprietary charging network.

Because all the other charging standards out there are terrible, horrible, and aren't even close to being viable.

It's like saying, what if the standard 110v plug on your wall only supplied 1 amp of power maximum. If that was the case you'd see most every appliance with their own proprietary plug.

 

[Jason S]

Hi new member here
Have a lot of reading to do on this forum and always wanting to learn more about Tesla & Ev's
I am not a Tesla owner but one of those new people (one of the masses that Tesla wants to attract with the Model 3)
We are 4 year EV veteran drivers with over 138,000 km 85,000 miles and presently drive our second i Miev 2014.
We plan to reserve on the 31st at the Tesla store here in Montreal Canada.
Why ? because we want to support and see Tesla succeed in rooting Ev's, bringing the availability & affordability to the Masses.
We paid $ 35,000 Canadian for our first i Miev 2012. Not priced too far from the Base Model 3.
Whether or not we will end up purchasing a Model 3 will depend on several factors for us.
We are looking forward to moving up to a Tesla and hope the circumstance at the time of availability are favorable.

Friend of mine had an iMiev and he got a Rav4 EV (1/2 Tesla) later on. Never regretted it. Sounds like the Model 3 is perfect for you.

 

[Krugerrand]

I've seen plenty of these opinions presented here on the forum, but I haven't seen them said by any analytics or other professionals (haven't been looking either so that's the probable reason). Would you happen to have any links for me to check out? I'm wondering if "Joe Average" thinks like people here do and is willing to place a deposit for x years before even being able to configure his/her car as it is my understanding that for average person the availability (getting car quickly*) plays a big part?

Off the top of my head, I can't provide any analyst or the like links, though if you check out the 'short term investment' thread on the forum I'm pretty sure there are links among those pages. But even so, they're all guessing just like *we* are, except that *we* own Teslas, *we've* been talking to and educating our family, friends, colleagues, strangers in parking lots... making it such that I think *we* have the best chance of guessing what's likely to happen. Obviously, not until reservations open etc., etc., will we know the truth.

If you read comments to various media Tesla articles, peruse Tesla's FB page and associated ones, you'll get an idea of the rumblings out there. Yes, there are still a lot of people who don't know about Tesla and their vehicles, people who are confused/uneducated/fooled by auto/fossil fuel industries that won't be lining up to make a reservation. But there are a lot of people on the other side of the coin, and that group grows every day and their voice is getting louder and louder every day and they'll be making a reservation.

Everybody in my immediate circle, most being 'Joe Average', knows about Tesla. (I have a big mouth. ) While not all of them will be placing reservations, a lot of them have had their interest piqued and will become EV owners sooner rather than later.

I have no doubts that the demand will be there, at least eventually, but I'm separating reservations and placing a real order in my mind.

The demand is there now. The demand was there for Roadster, Model S and X as evidenced by the reservations for those very expensive vehicles, each vehicle seeing an increase in demand.

The three most heard comments/questions/complaints you'll hear from Joe Average about EVs are:

1) Affordability
2) Range
3) Charging

Tesla has now solved all three with the Model ≡ and SuperCharger Network.

*) Yes, you can make the argument that "well placing the reservation makes people get their car quicker" but what I mean is that the general public might be more inclined towards products that are available straight out of store or within couple of months of placing an order. And as such, I would expect the demand for Model 3 to increase with the availability of Model 3.

Of course demand will increase when the car is more readily available, but you're about to find out real quick that a significant amount of demand exists this very moment in time. And it's going to become abundantly clear that waiting to reserve until Spring 2018 (as has been suggested) isn't going to net you the car in 3 months time. Indeed, that kind of a turnaround might not occur for a couple of years into production. It'll all depend on how fast Tesla can pump them out while growing their GigaFactory/s, SuperCharger Network, SCs, additional mfg plans in Asia/Europe etc...

 

[jkk_]

Off the top of my head, I can't provide any analyst or the like links, though if you check out the 'short term investment' thread on the forum I'm pretty sure there are links among those pages. But even so, they're all guessing just like *we* are, except that *we* own Teslas, *we've* been talking to and educating our family, friends, colleagues, strangers in parking lots... making it such that I think *we* have the best chance of guessing what's likely to happen. Obviously, not until reservations open etc., etc., will we know the truth.

If you read comments to various media Tesla articles, peruse Tesla's FB page and associated ones, you'll get an idea of the rumblings out there. Yes, there are still a lot of people who don't know about Tesla and their vehicles, people who are confused/uneducated/fooled by auto/fossil fuel industries that won't be lining up to make a reservation. But there are a lot of people on the other side of the coin, and that group grows every day and their voice is getting louder and louder every day and they'll be making a reservation.

Everybody in my immediate circle, most being 'Joe Average', knows about Tesla. (I have a big mouth. ) While not all of them will be placing reservations, a lot of them have had their interest piqued and will become EV owners sooner rather than later.



The demand is there now. The demand was there for Roadster, Model S and X as evidenced by the reservations for those very expensive vehicles, each vehicle seeing an increase in demand.

The three most heard comments/questions/complaints you'll hear from Joe Average about EVs are:

1) Affordability
2) Range
3) Charging

Tesla has now solved all three with the Model ≡ and SuperCharger Network.



Of course demand will increase when the car is more readily available, but you're about to find out real quick that a significant amount of demand exists this very moment in time. And it's going to become abundantly clear that waiting to reserve until Spring 2018 (as has been suggested) isn't going to net you the car in 3 months time. Indeed, that kind of a turnaround might not occur for a couple of years into production. It'll all depend on how fast Tesla can pump them out while growing their GigaFactory/s, SuperCharger Network, SCs, additional mfg plans in Asia/Europe etc...

Sorry for offtopic, but I wanted to just say it out loud since the reputation system is missing in this new forum - thanks for a nice reply! (no "shaking-hands" smiley? boo!)

 

[ankitmishra]

People should reserve Model 3 as soon as they could. Model S sold 17000 units in last quater. Tesla aims to sell 85000 of these +$100000 cars this year. Model X reservation list is in 30000 worldwide. You can imagine the demand for Model 3. Analyst have misunderstood Tesla most of the time. So, if any person who is thinking that he could the car easily even if waits to reserve is going to be very sorry.

 

[cfttester]

“You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never to get involved in an EV war on Teslamotorsclub.com. And only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Tesla when range is on the line! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA BAHAHAHA!!!! ”

Sorry, I had to. Otherwise, the defeating argument would be too simple - Tesla is the only one making EVs in the whole world, so stop complaining, open your checkbook and try to enjoy the process. By the way there are a couple of comments like that in this thread.

I'm quite amazed how well the non-existent marketing department in TM is "dumping" into the people brains. They managed to plant an idea that people, who buy Tesla Models, are on a mission of some kind and they have to do cross-country trips in there EVs (I guess to promote the mission). Obviously the mission itself would not work, because there are other EV manufacturers.

 

[cfttester]

It has imposed its own deadline for the launch date as 12/31/2017.

They may deliver 1 or 2 Mod 3s around 7pm on December 31st if and only if the word "cool" will not be used at all during March 31st presentation. Even in this case the mid range orders will go in production in 2018 at best.

 

[cfttester]

Because all the other charging standards out there are terrible, horrible, and aren't even close to being viable.

Have you visit at least a half of them?

 

[JRP3]

Bottom line, if you think you want a Model 3, if you can spare the $1K, and if you don't have another use for it that could return better than 50% or so in the next 2 years, why wouldn't you put down a deposit? It's going to move you up in the line and it could be a significant amount. I just don't see the downside to reserving.

 

[jkk_]

I just don't see the downside to reserving.

What's the Tesla policy if you want/have to/choose to skip the first configuration window they give you? Is it even known?

Not expecting you to know even though I'm quoting you btw.

 

[JRP3]

I believe you can defer your order to a later date.

 

[liuping]

They managed to plant an idea that people, who buy Tesla Models, are on a mission of some kind and they have to do cross-country trips in there EVs

Long range it not just for cross country. You keep emphasizing that, but it's not what most people want or need or even care about.

Long range is for traveling between cities easily, quickly and without hassle. San Diego to LA and back on a Model S requires no stops for charging. That is a big deal for some. it means most of the time they never need to interrupt their day to charge. If they need to go further, supercharges make it easy and free (or easy an prepaid/included in the price of the car)

CHAdeMo on paper is a good alternative and should allow city to city travel, but in practice most charges are nowhere near the CHAdeMO spec limit and take more than 2X as long to charge, even though they charge a heavy premium price, often over $20 per charge. Many timeout after 30 minutes, because they were not designed to charge larger batteries and over heat, meaning you have to pay for 2 or more charge sessions to fill a larger battery. Quite a few are at dealers and are only usable during business hours, and frequently blocked. Also a surprising number just don't work, making them very unreliable and often force the driver to switch to a J1772 site near by, and spend many hours charging just to get home.

 

[Tam]

They may deliver 1 or 2 Mod 3s around 7pm on December 31st if and only if the word "cool" will not be used at all during March 31st presentation. Even in this case the mid range orders will go in production in 2018 at best.

You may be right if Tesla is delayed and still wants to make the deadline, they can do a symbolic deliveries of a few just like the last time with Model X.

Either way, I don't think most people would expect their deliveries until 2018.

I would tend to be as optimistic as ankitmishra who thinks this time it will be different.

Tesla has learned from the past.

Let's see how less complicated the prototype is in 2 weeks which might help in speeding up the deliveries.

 

[landis]

Bottom line, if you think you want a Model 3, if you can spare the $1K

As a professional that commutes 90mi/day, has been following TSLA since before the S reveal, and will be on vacation an hour from home the week of the 31st...

I for one plan to drive to my 'local' store in PA on 3/31 to do what little I can (i.e. pledge 1K) to provide some concrete 'feedback'.

I suspect I am NOT the only wannabe Tesla owner that has been lurking for years on these forums. Even it results in a delivery only 30 days earlier than waiting (without action for now), it will have been well worth it. I have a hunch it will be much more of a difference, but we will have to wait to find out now won't we...

BTW, I have the best son ever, for fathers day last year he scheduled a test drive at the local store, and informed me after patently listening to be extol the virtues of BEV in general and TLSA in particular. A short drive in a S70D confirmed there will be no ICE in my future. Hence my dismay when within a month my trusty Saturn was too tired to continue. My hope had been to retire it with a M3. Now I have a used Prius-C which manages the commute and will hold me over until 'my' M3 is delivered.

 

[MrBoylan]

But then why risk your money if you could simply order Mod 3 when it will become available? Best case you will get it 3 month faster...

No risk. Refundable deposit. Tesla isn't going anywhere. And a deposit on 3/31 could get you your car a lot more than 3 months earlier than waiting until they're in stores, depending on what the order backlog is and how quickly Tesla can ramp up production. Model X has been going out to (non-Founders) customers for about 3 months now and there's no sign of them being able to produce enough to put test drive models in stores any time soon. There's still a large backlog of confirmed orders to fulfill before Tesla can afford the luxury of having in-store inventory.

But even if it is "only" 3 month earlier, some of us have been waiting a really long time to own a Tesla, so anything that can shorten that waiting period is a good thing. And it's possible that getting in an order early might make the difference between taking delivery of the car in time to take advantage of the Federal Tax credit of $7500 or missing that window.