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Why Tesla Will Fail

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I can't tell you how I know, but I know for a fact that you can stand up to Elon and make him change his mind without negative consequences. But you'd better be right.

I forced Tesla to start complying with the licenses for its open source software; had to track down some copyright holders and give them enough evidence to threaten to sue, though. Shouldn't have required that.

I do still think the communications failures are the thing which is going to kill Tesla if they don't fix it, and *soon*. They've now created massive ill-will among long-time Model 3 reservation holders due to the delivery cluster****, as you can see over in the Model 3 delivery forum. (I think 7 cancelled-on-short-notice deliveries is the record.) They may slowly be realizing their problem...

...or maybe not. The massive breakage of the Model S software in the version 9 release is garnering non-stop anger from long-time customers including myself; but because of Tesla's totally broken communications, my next move is attempting to publish an open letter in the highest-readership locations I can find. Move after that is to sue them. All would be unnecessary if the company had the communications skills at the level of, say, an amateur theater group. They don't.
 
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Neroden may find some of the references to software systems here interesting: Elon Musk's extreme micromanagement has wasted time and money at Tesla, insiders say

Musk is like 5 standard deviations from normal on risk tolerance.

(I'm aware of the reputation of the source and don't need to be told)
There is something interesting there, actually. They classified things into four tiers based on "automatability" and Musk told them to automate everything in tiers one through *three*. (NOT tier four.)

I would have said the same thing. Sounds to me like they misclassified. The stuff which failed should have been classified into tier four. That's not micromanagement at all...
 
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I had a dodge neon in the 1990s where half the paint came off, but the company survived.

There is a car on the market now that has a fragmentation grenade for a front driver airbag - if it goes off it will blast metal fragments into the driver and basically kill them...

There was a Toyota popular at the same time that would randomly kill it’s passengers by accelerating into things uncontrollably.

There used to be a Pinto that would explode into a fireball of death on any fender bender that hit low in the back...

Tesla’s service issues might be real. They probably are notable. But they are nothing compared to how bad the competition has mangled things...
 
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Tesla’s service issues might be real. They probably are notable. But they are nothing compared to how bad the competition has mangled things...

Sadly, I agree 110%.

I still have 1/3 of my personal wealth invested in Tesla (well, probably higher today -- TSLA's up and everything else is down!) because the would-be competition is so appallingly terrible.

As the joke goes, you don't have to run faster than the bear. Tesla doesn't have to be up to the standards customers want, they just have to be better than the other guys, who are terrible.
http://wiki.c2.com/?IdontHaveToBeTheFastestJustFasterThanYou

I just wish they *would* live up to the standards customers want. :sigh: It leaves a *long-term* risk.
 
Tesla will be around for a good long while... :cool:

Tesla (TSLA) releases Q3 results: record $6.8 billion revenue and turns $312 million profit

Tesla Model 3 becomes best-selling US car by revenue and delivers gross margin beyond expectations



Screen-Shot-2018-10-24-at-4.55.57-PM.jpg



upload_2018-10-24_19-16-1.png
 
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Sadly, I agree 110%.

I still have 1/3 of my personal wealth invested in Tesla (well, probably higher today -- TSLA's up and everything else is down!) because the would-be competition is so appallingly terrible.

As the joke goes, you don't have to run faster than the bear. Tesla doesn't have to be up to the standards customers want, they just have to be better than the other guys, who are terrible.
http://wiki.c2.com/?IdontHaveToBeTheFastestJustFasterThanYou

I just wish they *would* live up to the standards customers want. :sigh: It leaves a *long-term* risk.
They're not going to get Tesla this far and lose it to lack of servicing.
 
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Thre
What kind of ridiculous thread is that? Mods, you there?
Thread is fine. Maybe the title is a little extreme to get the attention it needs.

Neroden was pretty spot on about the internal communication/software apps used by Tesla. There have been at least one documented case (Model 3 Owners club youtube podcast) where delivery was held up because the system "lost" the most recent update made by the customer and reverted to earlier data. And only Tesla HQ in California could update the system while the dealership wrung their hands.
 
I'm hoping so. Musk's tweet about adding service centers everywhere, not just in big cities, makes me optimistic.

I've seen companies fail over stupider things!

North American model 3 orders looks to be a bit smaller than ideal. I suspect Musk was service center post was dealing with why a great many interested people have not "pulled the trigger".

They seem to be doing well now with most buyers being very happy. If the drama of the last year subsides I expect many interested people will place an order.
 
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