Will an 8 year old Model S be almost worthless?

[mblakele]

Elephant on the table: what will autopilot be like in eight years?

For me at least, pre-AP cars aren't even worth looking at. Future improvements could reduce the value of cars with today's AP.

 

[Half Dollar Bill]

I'll let you know if I'm interested in getting rid of the car when my warranties run out. I'm 2.5 years and 70k miles in and really have no plans to upgrade. We will be replacing my wife's car with probably an X when the time comes down the road but that's not for a few years hopefully.
And for those used car shoppers, unless Tesla really wants to take the older fleet off the road for ease of maintenance reasons, who's to say they don't introduce a pre-owned warranty?
I've driven my previous cars well past their warranty expiration. Sure, you wind up with some hefty invoices over time but again, over time, you weren't saddled with those same invoices at the start of ownership, so it's all about cost-averaging. Since there's less stuff to break in an S I think the odds are in our favor. I'll see how that plays out for me in the coming years.

 

[EinSV]

Tesla naysayers have been predicting from Day 1 that Tesla vehicles would have worse than average depreciation but have always been wrong. In fact, Tesla has consistently had much better than average depreciation.

As Model 3s hit the road in large numbers and awareness of the Tesla brand and its benefits spread, I would be much more concerned about accelerating depreciation of ICE models. For example, Mercedes S class -- the leading premium ICE sedan competitor to Model S -- already depreciates much faster than most other cars (including the Model S).

Cars That Depreciate In Value The Most | Investopedia
Tesla Model S Depreciation Better Than Any Other Car In UK

 

[ElectricTundra]

The car market will be vastly different in 8 years so using current, mostly ICE, trends is of limited value.

8-year-old Tesla's will be competing w/ 8-year-old ICE's. Who will really want to buy an ICE in 2025? Econ 101: Why I’ll Never Buy A Gas Car Again

Even if a Tesla depreciates faster than what is today considered normal, won't ICE cars then depreciate even faster in competition with BEV's? Do you want a car that depreciates faster or one that depreciates much faster?

What role has the drivetrain played in traditional depreciation compared to the rest of the car wearing out? Similar for older less fuel efficient cars? How will repairing a BEV drivetrain compare to an ICE? Then consider that the repaired ICE will be 8-year-old technology while the repaired BEV (assuming it needs repair) will likely be current technology.

And as mentioned above, an 8-year-old S or X will in many ways still be a nicer car than a current Model 3 or whatever is available then. Not much different than buying an 8-year-old BMW 8-series instead of a new Subaru Outback or something. Very different cars.

 

[Vitold]

8 year old Tesla's will go for more than equivalent luxury ICE cars. Tesla drive unit replacement will be cheaper than ICE rebuild and original batteries will still have a lot useful life (based on current degradation trends).

 

[demundus]

Long story short, a 2013 Model S can be had for as low as $40K today. That's 50% value loss in 3 years. In 8 years, your Model S will be .. $12-$15K. But if you think that's bad, look at a Mercedes S class or Jaguar. .. plus you spent $0 on gas.

Automobiles (and other machinery) depreciate on a curve. Its not just 50% then another 50%. That said, I don't think the Model S will be worth anything more than a Model 3.

Remember, there are still people who buy used 7 series over a new 1 series. Not every car is junk because it has a cheaper younger brother

 

[stopcrazypp]

Battery degradation seems to be a non issue. Plenty of data from Priuses and Roadsters indicate that batteries last a long time. The issue is battery failure for unknown reasons, an issue that no one can predict for battery packs older than 8 years because we do not have data on that yet. We are talking 7168 little batteries, fuses, capacitors, mosfets and so on that all have to work perfectly for the life of the vehicle. Why chance buying a used out of warranty Model S that might need a very expensive battery or drive unit replacement?

A nitpick, but an important one. Given the cells (7104 actually) are heavily paralleled (74 in parallel), it can tolerate a complete cell loss (whether a fail open or close given the per-cell fuse). You will lose 1/74 of your capacity, but it'll work perfectly fine. There have been no reported incidents of complete cell failures so far (external punctures from accidents excluded).

 

[gaswalla]

Good comments here.
If I can get a P90DL for 15k in 2023, I'd like to be the first in line.

 

[TaoJones]

Good comments here.
If I can get a P90DL for 15k in 2023, I'd like to be the first in line.

You should have noooooo problem.

 

[MDinFL]

Already told my wife that in three years or so she'll be getting a CPO Model X if my Model S works out the way I hope.

 

[ElectricTundra]

Already told my wife that in three years or so she'll be getting a CPO Model X if my Model S works out the way I hope.

We're planning to replace my wife's ML350 in a year or two with an X.

 

[Skotty]

Maybe not quite zero but closer than not.

Going macro here.........even if the drivetrain is flawless the early adopters rushed in for the next greatest thing. This mentality has been rooting for a very long time. I cringe seeing the 7 and 8 years loans being gobbled up. Sure, it makes it more affordable, sure grand visions of holding the car for 10 years, sure rationalize, rationalize, rationalize. Cars, except for the rare few, retain no where near their original value and that's before considering today's pace of advancing technology, anticipated legislation to accelerate full autonomy, planned manufacturer obsolescence, generational lifestyle differences, state of the economy etc. 8 years is a long time with tons of innovation in it, and other than a potentially appreciating piece of real estate or a tanked economy, few (excluding enthusiasts, tinkerers, etc) hold on to anything that long. American industry has no intention of putting itself out of business.......so hurry up with my Jeston space craft please.

I always go into every car purchase assuming it will have $0 value when I'm done with it. Anything above that is a bonus, and not an expectation.

As for loans, I try to plan my car loans such that they will be paid off before the warranty runs out. That way, you have more money to fix the car if it breaks, and if the car isn't worth fixing after the warranty has run out, it's already paid off and it's easy to get into something new (this works especially well given my $0 value assumption).

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Good comments here.
If I can get a P90DL for 15k in 2023, I'd like to be the first in line.

When I get my P141D Max. Plaid version, you could get the P90DL for cheap.
The top end model always depreciates like crazy.
Tesla is reportedly heavily discounting inventory Model S P90D’s now that P100D is out

 

[Dithermaster]

I doubt they will drop to $10K or $20K; a decently optioned Model S in good shape will be $30K plus or minus not much. Heck, today even salvage cars go for more than that!

 

[Bridor]

I'm just going to state that for myself, a person that rarely keeps a car longer than a year, I am actually planning on keeping my Tesla forever. I have only currently had it for six months, but I am as enamored of the car as I was the first day I drove it. I do not have autopilot, but I do not miss what I do not know. This is, for me, the greatest vehicle ever built. We will see where we are in eight years, but I would imagine that I would buy another vehicle and keep the current Model S for another family member or as a backup. I think the resale values for Tesla Model S vehicles eight years old will be reasonable, but nowhere near $0.

 

[Saghost]

A nitpick, but an important one. Given the cells (7104 actually) are heavily paralleled (74 in parallel), it can tolerate a complete cell loss (whether a fail open or close given the per-cell fuse). You will lose 1/74 of your capacity, but it'll work perfectly fine. There have been no reported incidents of complete cell failures so far (external punctures from accidents excluded).

Agreed. Total failure of the pack as a whole is improbable (aside from flooding or a runaway thermal event from objects penetrating the pack.)

What I'd worry about are the pack level pieces like the BMS and (especially) the contactors failing. Though I suppose we'll eventually get a repair industry that knows how to drop the pack, open it safely, and replace those bits.

 

[mrjedistud]

People are stating DU failure, but I wonder how many are actual failures vs the milling noise and Tesla voluntarily replacing the DUs. I think that if its just noise DUs should be fine (there will always be some legit failures). My ICE cars also get louder with age.

 

[ApauloThirteen]

Don't forget that in 8 years the cost of a replacement battery pack will be less than now.
Personally, if I could buy an 8 year old Model S for $20,000 I would.

Could be wrong but Musk strikes me as a person who is motivated by something more than mere profit. So he's not opposed to selling you a pack vs a new car even if that potentially hurts co profits.

The S pack is designed from day one to be easily replaced (unlike say.... a Leaf pack). Think they were saying 42 bolts or something, and then it drops out the bottom.

& will he be inclined (more than other companies) to stop support on older cars? Doubtful.

Both factors should support resale value a bit.

 

[JBsC6]

Traditional luxury cars depreciate quite heavily specifically because the cost to repair is high.

Just look at the Porsche 928 as an example.

Keep it in mind and realize it's the usual cost of owning a luxury low production volume machine.

As unit volumes increase the aftermarket usually picks up the slack on repair expenditures. Competition between the aftermarket and OEM does offer consumers better pricing alternatives.

The lower price model 3 production models higher production volumes nearing 400k units before production even begins gives me confidence parts replacements will be more affordable over time.

As long as tesla stays in business....I have confidence replacement parts either by OEM or aftermarket will be available at reasonable prices.

Of course I could be wrong and I'll give it more thought before I decide to purchase or lease the model three at the time tesla 3 gets delivered

 

[MDMGSO47]

Here is an example. But a roadster is not a fair comparison for the following reasons,

1. Roadster was a limited run, 2500 and fewer everyday (they are crashing)
2. Roadster had far more issues than Model S. And the owners had a greater appetite to deal with the issues, and Tesla's willingness to help was greater .. at least used to be. Today it's sorta sad that Tesla is happy to charge them $30K for a battery upgrade, but they won't throw the roadster owners a bone by enabling supercharger access
3. Roadster owners are not putting as many miles on the car as Model S owners. So many roadsters have very little miles on them.
4. If you think Model S repairs are bad, look at the roadster.

Secondly comparing it with an ICE is also not a fair comparison. Yes it is less complex than an ICE, but a 10 year old ICE can be fixed by Joe the mechanic. Your Model S cannot. And Tesla goes out of the way to prevent a third party from fixing it.

And while EV has less moving parts, your Model S has a LOT of other parts in the car that could fail, and are not fixable without Tesla's super-expensive and often unwilling help. 8 years from now, what incentive does Tesla have to help you? They do have a LOT of incentive to sell you a new car though.

Things that could go bad with your Model S .. 8 years+,

Door handles
Touch screen
The non touch screen
steering wheel buttons
heated seats/airbag sensors
Latches, Hinges
Pano roof (motors there?)
Other wiring
Bulbs going out
Your usual car accidents.
etc.

Most of those, your neighborhood mechanic won't be able to fix. Tesla won't sell him/her the parts, or make the manuals available. And Model S while > roadster, is still a small segment of the market, so the neighborhood mechanic doesn't care as much for your business either.

Long story short, a 2013 Model S can be had for as low as $40K today. That's 50% value loss in 3 years. In 8 years, your Model S will be .. $12-$15K. But if you think that's bad, look at a Mercedes S class or Jaguar. .. plus you spent $0 on gas.

I have had both. Depreciation on a Jaguar is brutal; not as bad on the MB S Class.