Will current autopilot cars be able to upgrade to 2.0?

[cryptyk]

What do you think? I suspect we all know that more hardware will be required. Almost certainly more cameras, but perhaps lidar.
I know Tesla doesn't have a great record of allowing hardware upgrades, but this is a biggie. I imagine a serious backlash if we get closer to autonomous and the existing autopilot drivers are left with the original system. I would definitely sell my AP1 car and buy a new AP2 car. If others did the same it would flood the user market with guaranteed-resale value cars.

What's the community consensus on this?

 

[Roger_wilco]

If chassis remains same, they may offer a hardware update. Actually, considering ap1 will stay around level 2-3 ish autonomy, I am not sure Tesla company will be happy with potentially more dangerous ap1 versions around (think what happens if an ap2 car follows the leader which might be ap1). Until standards settle, there will be some unexpected problems to solve like this..

 

[Canuck]

In my opinion, there will be no retrofits for two reasons: (1) The service centers are too busy as it without all this added work. and (2) Tesla wants to sell new cars so there's no incentive to do retrofits. You prove that in your post since you will upgrade yourself.

If others did the same it would flood the user market with guaranteed-resale value cars.

There won't be a flood of used cars because the vast majority of owners are more than happy with AP1.0 and it will take time before AP2.0 does different things -- that will be down the line with software updates.

I imagine a serious backlash if we get closer to autonomous and the existing autopilot drivers are left with the original system.

Ha. That's funny. You seem to not know that some of us bought and shortly thereafter AP came out. I didn't complain since I got exactly what I ordered and paid for. The "serious backlash" you think will happen will only be a few complainers, who feel entitled to things they are not, but it will seem louder than it actually is because you frequent this Tesla forum. The vast majority of Tesla owners won't care and will continue to be more than happy with what they got.

 

[doubleohwhat]

I wonder if they'll reduce the cost to activate AP in cars that have the AP 1.0 hardware but didn't purchase it with the car once AP2.0 is out and extra features are available. I didn't get AP because I really have no use for it with 99% of the driving I do and I seriously doubt I'll ever activate for use by myself. However, if the cost was reduced to $1,500 or so, I might be tempted to activate it before selling the car if I do a private sale.

 

[BluestarE3]

I think it will be extremely cost-prohibitive, for both the manufacturer and consumer, to even consider such an upgrade.

 

[aesculus]

I am not sure Tesla company will be happy with potentially more dangerous ap1 versions around

^^^^^ This

 

[Az_Rael]

I am not sure Tesla company will be happy with potentially more dangerous ap1 versions around

^^^^^ This

Well, Tesla already happily allows the "more dangerous" AP0 (classic non-AP) cars, and doesn't offer any upgrades for them.

 

[Canuck]

I am not sure Tesla company will be happy with potentially more dangerous ap1 versions around

Corporate decisions are based on profits and not happiness. The costs to retrofit greatly exceed the nominal costs to defend/settle AP lawsuits. Also, unless Tesla agrees to do it for free, which will not happen, AP1.0 will be out there in any event so there's very little reduction in exposure by taking the few AP1.0 off the road of the owners who want to pay to upgrade.

 

[ecarfan]

What do you think? I suspect we all know that more hardware will be required.

This has been discussed many times on TMC. AP 2.0 will certainly include multiple additional radar units and more cameras. The existing wiring harness in AP 1.0 cars will not support adding more radars and cameras, the necessary wiring simply isn't there. It is not feasible to rewire the car to add multiple new pieces of hardware. That is a massive task.

Tesla will not be offering to upgrade AP 1.0 hardware to AP 2.0 hardware. It will not happen.

 

[Canuck]

Tesla will not be offering to upgrade AP 1.0 hardware to AP 2.0 hardware. It will not happen.

Of course but the problem is that AP1.0 owners really want to believe otherwise. Cognitive dissonance tells them to believe a retrofit will be available and that's a powerful thought process to try to overcome even in the face of very cogent arguments being made against a retrofit.

 

[thegruf]

AP1.0 -> AP2.0 upgrades not going to happen even if some choose not to believe it.

what was is Elon tweeted?
"Scientists: Earth Endangered by New Strain of Fact-Resistant Humans"

 

[Roger_wilco]

Corporate decisions are based on profits and not happiness. The costs to retrofit greatly exceed the nominal costs to defend/settle AP lawsuits. Also, unless Tesla agrees to do it for free, which will not happen, AP1.0 will be out there in any event so there's very little reduction in exposure by taking the few AP1.0 off the road of the owners who want to pay to upgrade.

Its not about lawsuit costs, but reputation. Remember, there will be more alternatives around which will put great pressure on ap1, may be even ap2. Or, authorities may reconsider reliability of older versions.. I wonder what happens in such case. AP systems may become a seperately licensed software pack which becomes cheaper in time. Another option is, provider company may apply further restrictions on abilities of older ap systems to accelerate transition. Autonomous drive is a complicated field in many manner.

 

[P85DEE]

In my opinion, there will be no retrofits for two reasons: (1) The service centers are too busy as it without all this added work. and (2) Tesla wants to sell new cars so there's no incentive to do retrofits. You prove that in your post since you will upgrade yourself.



There won't be a flood of used cars because the vast majority of owners are more than happy with AP1.0 and it will take time before AP2.0 does different things -- that will be down the line with software updates.



Ha. That's funny. You seem to not know that some of us bought and shortly thereafter AP came out. I didn't complain since I got exactly what I ordered and paid for. The "serious backlash" you think will happen will only be a few complainers, who feel entitled to things they are not, but it will seem louder than it actually is because you frequent this Tesla forum. The vast majority of Tesla owners won't care and will continue to be more than happy with what they got.

That last paragraph is absolutely spot on.

 

[BluestarE3]

Its not about lawsuit costs, but reputation. Remember, there will be more alternatives around which will put great pressure on ap1, may be even ap2. Or, authorities may reconsider reliability of older versions.. I wonder what happens in such case. AP systems may become a seperately licensed software pack which becomes cheaper in time. Another option is, provider company may apply further restrictions on abilities of older ap systems to accelerate transition. Autonomous drive is a complicated field in many manner.

I don't think old cars are required to be retrofitted with seat belts, cruise control, disc brakes, or airbags if they were manufactured before those became requirements or commonplace features. Nor am I aware of clamoring among owners of these old vehicles to have manufacturers provide such retrofits if they had purchased their vehicles just prior to those features being offered. How is this situation any different?

 

[Troy]

Check out this video at 12:14. A retrofit won't be possible just like it wasn't possible when Autopilot 1.0 came out. HERE is a link to the correct moment.

 

[Roger_wilco]

I don't think old cars are required to be retrofitted with seat belts, cruise control, disc brakes, or airbags if they were manufactured before those became requirements or commonplace features. Nor am I aware of clamoring among owners of these old vehicles to have manufacturers provide such retrofits if they had purchased their vehicles just prior to those features being offered. How is this situation any different?

Simple. Lack of airbag or seatbelt less likely to be a threat for the rest of the traffic. But an underperforming ap, is.
From the ongoing discussions, its becoming clear that a hardware upgrade to current products is not an easy option as several interior or exterior parts needs to be redesigned. So OPs question appears answered.But, future versions of these cars may have better upgredability after mass production of widely accepted sensor types and models.

 

[shokunin]

If chassis remains same, they may offer a hardware update. Actually, considering ap1 will stay around level 2-3 ish autonomy, I am not sure Tesla company will be happy with potentially more dangerous ap1 versions around (think what happens if an ap2 car follows the leader which might be ap1).

AP1 cars will always be around, there's no way to avoid this. Only way to get around "potentially more dangerous AP1 versions" is to offer a recall and have every AP1 retrofitted to AP2. No way this is going happen. I suspect there might be some cars that can upgrade to AP2, built after a certain date with preinstalled wiring harnesses and/or hardware.

Otherwise it's just like going from pre-AP to AP1.0, the answer was no. A retrofit doesn't benefit Tesla much, it overloads an already overloaded service center, does not increase sales of new units to existing customers, and increases liability should AP fail due to an incorrect installation.

 

[number12]

Everyone loves retrofit talk... probably will not happen? But either way how much would you pay?

If that cost is X and the cost to upgrade car isn't that much more, why do people love keeping their car?

Best example is people lining up to pay $20,000 for a p90d to p100d. Plus the tax credit was everyone's car really $27500 less than brand new? Plus you keep your first tax credit.

 

[Evbwcaer]

Although I think Tesla will not sell retrofits, it is worth noting:

- wk057 did retrofit an AP0 car to AP1. 0 to 1 is probably more technically dificult than 1 to 2.

-Maybe another source than Tesla will offer the retrofit. As autonomous driving begins to penetrate the market, I suspect there will be a small industry that provides retrofits/enhancements/hacks/etc.

 

[number12]

Although I think Tesla will not sell retrofits, it is worth noting:

- wk057 did retrofit an AP0 car to AP1. 0 to 1 is probably more technically dificult than 1 to 2.

-Maybe another source than Tesla will offer the retrofit. As autonomous driving begins to penetrate the market, I suspect there will be a small industry that provides retrofits/enhancements/hacks/etc.

Tesla owns the software to make 2.0 worth anything. Doubt they will make it easier for others to make money if they reason they are not offering retros is money.