Will Tesla be able to deliver FSD with HW3.0 and current Model 3 sensor suite, ever?

[Knightshade]

Roads are designed for someone who can read signs and be warned about what you need to know (including intersections). Even if there are trees, other cars, etc. You can still drive, as a human.

Explain how, as a human, you see a stop sign that is not visible due to being overgrown?

You don't of course.

So either you "know" it's there because you remember it from before it was overgrown, or you blow through the sign because you have no idea it's there.

The car has maps as a secondary assist to vision to avoid that second, far worse with a human, situation.

 

[LACALawyer]

Was interesting to note, when watching some old Star Wars movies, that all the fighters and ground transportation was still operated manually by pilots. They had technology to navigate over longer distances, but in challenging situations a pilot would always take over the controls. Going through the canyons, around trees, dodgeing boulders. Some of the best heros had the best flying/driving skills.

Even Hans Solo was at his best when he switched off the targeting computer and his hands be guided by "The Force". Also tended to take driving over from the Droids in difficult situations. Darth Vader was at his most competent and evil self when he got behind you, with his hands on the controls of his personal fighter.

The Mandalorian also kept very busy flipping switches and staying in control as he piloted his beat up interstellar junker.

Not unusual for a dramatic scene to show a pilot handing the controls over to Chewy while running to the back to personally handle one crisis or another

May the Force be with us...

"Han" Solo.

 

[Knightshade]

That would potentially cost Tesla billion$ - they would have to refund the cost of the entire car

Naah- when they had to issue EAP refunds due to missed promises they didn't buy the cars back, just partial refund of what they paid for EAP.

Likewise FSD buyers (pre-march 2019) would likely get either a full $3000 refund, or close to it... that'd be nowhere near billions though.

Post march 2019 buyers might get a partial refund, since they've already gotten most of the promised FSD features, they'd just get a small one for what Tesla can't deliver.

 

[RDoc]

Explain how, as a human, you see a stop sign that is not visible due to being overgrown?

You don't of course.

So either you "know" it's there because you remember it from before it was overgrown, or you blow through the sign because you have no idea it's there.

The car has maps as a secondary assist to vision to avoid that second, far worse with a human, situation.

Actually, that's not what he said at all: "Even if there are trees, other cars, etc.".

In many cases there are tree branches etc. growing over a sign partially blocking it, but humans know that it's a likely place for a stop sign and if they see even a part of one they stop.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Naah- when they had to issue EAP refunds due to missed promises they didn't buy the cars back, just partial refund of what they paid for EAP.

Likewise FSD buyers (pre-march 2019) would likely get either a full $3000 refund, or close to it... that'd be nowhere near billions though.

Post march 2019 buyers might get a partial refund, since they've already gotten most of the promised FSD features, they'd just get a small one for what Tesla can't deliver.

Disagree. If a fundamental reason for the purchase of a car is its promised autonomous capabilities then the entire cost of the car gets refunded when there’s no ‘indication’ that said autonomy will be delivered in ‘reasonable’ time.

 

[linux-works]

"Han" Solo.

(narrator: he was referring to the german version)

 

[drtimhill]

The more I see how slow Tesla is at delivering new FSD features, the more I think it will never happen. Assuming current HW3.0 and sensor suite.

I mean - Ok, stop signs. Great. In 5 years development timeline? How long it will be before Tesla releases unprotected left turns on intersections? Another 5 years?

Bottom line - my prediction is Tesla will never be able to release FSD, even in USA, on HW3.0 and current sensor suite.

Now I guess 99% of the forum would disagree with me. I’m curious - is there anyone else who agrees with my prediction?

The fact of the matter is, no-one knows. Not even Tesla really. And that's really why progress is "slow" (though slow compared to what, I wonder? Since no-one has ever delivered anything like this ever before, against what is "slow" being measured?).

But progress is being made, and in many ways its pretty rapid. Even the last few years have seen dramatic improvements in NOA, and we are now seeing the first steps in driving on city streets. As little as 10 years ago such a feat would have been almost unimaginable. I'm just enjoying the journey, even if it doesnt end up precisely where I (or anyone else, including Tesla) quite expected.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

That would potentially cost Tesla billion$ - they would have to refund the cost of the entire car

Nope.

Tesla had a discrete cost for FSD and plenty of people bought cars without FSD, so their liability is the FSD license,. Because they had a price for EAP, which was delivered, the value of FSD is no greater than US$4K.

Resetting expectations wouldn't necessarily hurt their P&L as they haven't recognized much of that revenue yet. However, if they have to do a reset on expectations, they would have to give some back.

We were happy to get FSD based on the capabilities which I think Tesla can deliver this year.

But if Tesla eventually decide they overpromised on FSD's capabilities, the major hit would be reputational not immediately financial.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Nope.

Tesla had a discrete cost for FSD and plenty of people bought cars without FSD, so their liability is the FSD license,. Because they had a price for EAP, which was delivered, the value of FSD is no greater than US$4K.

Resetting expectations wouldn't necessarily hurt their P&L as they haven't recognized much of that revenue yet. However, if they have to do a reset on expectations, they would have to give some back.

We were happy to get FSD based on the capabilities which I think Tesla can deliver this year.

But if Tesla eventually decide they overpromised on FSD's capabilities, the major hit would be reputational not immediately financial.

A car is no different to any other consumer device - if something advertised doesn’t work you get refund

 

[Knightshade]

A car is no different to any other consumer device - if something advertised doesn’t work you get refund

Except FSD is sold as a seperate option, it's not included in the base price of the car.

So no, you don't.

You'd get refunded for the optional feature they couldn't deliver..

See- again, the EAP lawsuit. Nobody got their entire car refunded (the lawyers knew better than to even try and ask for that)

 

[SergeyUser]

Explain how, as a human, you see a stop sign that is not visible due to being overgrown?

You don't of course.

So either you "know" it's there because you remember it from before it was overgrown, or you blow through the sign because you have no idea it's there.

The car has maps as a secondary assist to vision to avoid that second, far worse with a human, situation.

I may or may not see a particular sign, but I can still drive in a safe manner. And this applies for completely unknown roads, not just something I remember. For instance, human will understand behavior of cars in front and deduct from it what is going on. Or slow down and eventually figure it out. Or talk to people around. Bottom line - human can drive and figure out things without maps. This level of comprehension is completely out of reach for current AI.

 

[SergeyUser]

Naah- when they had to issue EAP refunds due to missed promises they didn't buy the cars back, just partial refund of what they paid for EAP.

Likewise FSD buyers (pre-march 2019) would likely get either a full $3000 refund, or close to it... that'd be nowhere near billions though.

Post march 2019 buyers might get a partial refund, since they've already gotten most of the promised FSD features, they'd just get a small one for what Tesla can't deliver.

It does not work like that. My decision to buy a car was based on the fact that I will be able to buy FSD. So the whole car price is in question, not just FSD itself. This is called false advertising. There are many lawsuits like that.

 

[SergeyUser]

Nope.

Tesla had a discrete cost for FSD and plenty of people bought cars without FSD, so their liability is the FSD license,. Because they had a price for EAP, which was delivered, the value of FSD is no greater than US$4K.

Resetting expectations wouldn't necessarily hurt their P&L as they haven't recognized much of that revenue yet. However, if they have to do a reset on expectations, they would have to give some back.

We were happy to get FSD based on the capabilities which I think Tesla can deliver this year.

But if Tesla eventually decide they overpromised on FSD's capabilities, the major hit would be reputational not immediately financial.

See above. Talking about feature I can buy (even if I didn't buy it) classifies as a false advertising, and this affects all who bought the car and based their decision on potential availability of FSD.

 

[SergeyUser]

Except FSD is sold as a seperate option, it's not included in the base price of the car.

So no, you don't.

You'd get refunded for the optional feature they couldn't deliver..

See- again, the EAP lawsuit. Nobody got their entire car refunded (the lawyers knew better than to even try and ask for that)

And here is another settlement example for you: iPad 3G AT&T Unlimited Data Plan Settlement | Class Action Rebates
Here is important part highlighted below:
Purchasers of Apple iPad 3G tablets ordered or purchased before June 7, 2010 are eligible for $40 cash compensation. Purchasers who did not sign up for the AT&T data plan are also eligible to sign up for a discount AT&T data plan.

AT&T data plan is like FSD. Feature you didn't sign up for, but the one which was advertised. Makes you eligible for compensation.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Except FSD is sold as a seperate option, it's not included in the base price of the car.

So no, you don't.

You'd get refunded for the optional feature they couldn't deliver..

See- again, the EAP lawsuit. Nobody got their entire car refunded (the lawyers knew better than to even try and ask for that)

That was to do with timeliness. The features came about 1 year later
If FSD cannot be done with the current hardware setup & it can’t upgraded to do so without changing the look of the car, Tesla will have to refund the entire car & possibly lost interest earned (opportunity cost)

 

[lolder]

I concur with the opinion that FSD is not going to happen any time soon, but for a different reason. The sensor suite has dozens or hundreds problems with edge cases, but that's not the real impediment.

1. The car relies on GPS to know where it is, and GPS is only accurate to around 30 feet / 10 meters. That's not accurate enough. The car does not know exactly where it is.

2. The car relies on the map to know where it's supposed to be, and I've personally seen hundreds of map errors where the roads on the map don't match the actual roads. Most of this is in construction areas, but construction areas are a reality -- they exist, and they're not infrequent. The maps don't get updated often enough, in some cases months or years. That's not good enough, you need the map accurately updated in a matter of hours. Therefore, the car doesn't know exactly where it is supposed to be.

If the car doesn't know either where it is or where it is supposed to be, it is impossible for it to do anywhere near full self driving, no matter how good the sensor suite or the algorithms are. You could have the best algorithm and sensor suite on the planet, but if the car thinks it's on the service road instead of the freeway's right-hand lane due to a map or GPS error, you're doomed. (And I've seen both cases, repeatedly).

I see no easy way to solve either issue. There are some hard ways to solve both issues, however, and Elon does like to do things the hard way, so who knows?

You haven't been paying attention to the seminars Tesla has put on. Teslas do not rely on GPS except for the speed limit database and reading speed signs is imminent. They "see" the road. They do not need to be on a route to drive on an unmarked road once the AP is engaged. If there is a route initiated the car will follow it unless there is an impediment in which case they will drive around it . The edge cases have been being solved ever since smart summon was enabled and are now solved by AI. This will all mature rapidly in the coming months.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

It does not work like that. My decision to buy a car was based on the fact that I will be able to buy FSD. So the whole car price is in question, not just FSD itself. This is called false advertising. There are many lawsuits like that.

Yep. Someone else gets it

 

[Mo City]

That was to do with timeliness. The features came about 1 year later
If FSD cannot be done with the current hardware setup & it can’t upgraded to do so without changing the look of the car, Tesla will have to refund the entire car & possibly lost interest earned (opportunity cost)

This is the multi-billion dollar question that may go to court in 2-3 years.

 

[Knightshade]

That was to do with timeliness. The features came about 1 year later
If FSD cannot be done with the current hardware setup & it can’t upgraded to do so without changing the look of the car, Tesla will have to refund the entire car & possibly lost interest earned (opportunity cost)

They really won't.

It does not work like that. My decision to buy a car was based on the fact that I will be able to buy FSD. So the whole car price is in question, not just FSD itself. This is called false advertising. There are many lawsuits like that.

By all means, name one in which an optional feature failing to be fully delivered resulted in a 100% refund of the entire cost of the original base product far in excess of the cost of the optional feature itself.

And here is another settlement example for you: iPad 3G AT&T Unlimited Data Plan Settlement | Class Action Rebates
Here is important part highlighted below:
Purchasers of Apple iPad 3G tablets ordered or purchased before June 7, 2010 are eligible for $40 cash compensation. Purchasers who did not sign up for the AT&T data plan are also eligible to sign up for a discount AT&T data plan.

AT&T data plan is like FSD. Feature you didn't sign up for, but the one which was advertised. Makes you eligible for compensation.

...uh...notice how they did not get the ipad fully refunded?

So again- nobody is getting their money back for the car

Just for FSD (potentially- and even then only a small/partial refund for the post march-2019 buyers- since most of the promised features to those buyers have already been delivered)

 

[SergeyUser]

You haven't been paying attention to the seminars Tesla has put on. Teslas do not rely on GPS except for the speed limit database and reading speed signs is imminent. They "see" the road. They do not need to be on a route to drive on an unmarked road once the AP is engaged. If there is a route initiated the car will follow it unless there is an impediment in which case they will drive around it . The edge cases have been being solved ever since smart summon was enabled and are now solved by AI. This will all mature rapidly in the coming months.

Car needs to have map data to engage at least 'stop signs' feature. I noticed in recent update that roads where AP was possible to engage on in earlier update are currently not available for AP. I suspect this is related to stop signs. Tesla possibly needs info about intersections before allowing AP to be engaged on city streets. (This is my speculation).

Here is a quick list of things Tesla relies on to make Autopilot/FSD viable:
1. Types of roads (highways, city roads, etc.)
2. Maps of parking lots (for Smart summon to make it anywhere close to being practical)
3. Curvature of the roads (and related reduction in speed based on the data).

At least. I'm sure there is much more to it.