Will Tesla be able to deliver FSD with HW3.0 and current Model 3 sensor suite, ever?

[focher]

Full Self Driving isn’t going to be a “release”. Features will gradually come out and improve over time. No one knows what Tesla’s software can do today except Tesla. There’s plenty of unreleased features that they’ve been building, but just not publicly made available.

Will the current sensor suite be enough? Who knows, but the software is the much bigger hurdle.

 

[Knightshade]

Recycled from my post in another thread:

I fear Tesla is on the wrong track with FSD. 90% of the driving I (and many others) do is Home-->Work-->Home every day. I should be able to program everything about that route... where every stop sign is, where every stop light is, the rules for each intersection, location of the actual lights, my preferred lane, speed, etc. It will be great if FSD gets to the point of working in unfamiliar environment. But it would have SO MUCH more daily utility if I could program it to be a good self driver on my usual route.

Adding a ton of code to let you individually program your specific driving computer would be insane on a bunch of levels.

Especially since the maker of the car is going to be held responsible for crashes when the car is doing the driving (L3 or higher)

 

[dave999z]

Even Hans Solo was at his best when he switched off the targeting computer and his hands be guided by "The Force".

"Han" Solo. And he wasn't guided by the Force. That was Luke Skywalker.

 

[Knightshade]

another question is will Tesla upgrade current 3 FSD owners to current hardware if 4.0 etc are needed.

They've been saying since the very first update to HW (2.0->2.5) that if newer HW is "necessary" for FSD the owner would get the upgrade for free.

But keep in mind the promise of what FSD will bring you is a lot narrower than it was before March 2019.

 

[Uncle Paul]

"Han" Solo. And he wasn't guided by the Force. That was Luke Skywalker.

That's right. Han was the guy with the Wookie as his Co-Pilot and manually piloted his Millenial Falcon on illegal cargo deliveries.

 

[vickh]

That's right. Han was the guy with the Wookie as his Co-Pilot and manually piloted his Millenial Falcon on illegal cargo deliveries.

yes and it's not like dusting crops, kid!

 

[vickh]

They've been saying since the very first update to HW (2.0->2.5) that if newer HW is "necessary" for FSD the owner would get the upgrade for free.

But keep in mind the promise of what FSD will bring you is a lot narrower than it was before March 2019.

but not for 1.0 upgrades->? At least we have the camera and hopefully just an MCU upgrade. I'd hate it if they went the apple route.

 

[dave999z]

Adding a ton of code to let you individually program your specific driving computer would be insane on a bunch of levels.

Especially since the maker of the car is going to be held responsible for crashes when the car is doing the driving (L3 or higher)

Disagree that it would be insane. It would be incredibly useful. I'm sure it would be hard to do; doesn't mean it's the wrong approach. Who knows if it's any harder than what they're doing trying to solve unfamiliar environments. Unless perhaps you have experience designing autonomous driving systems.

 

[dave999z]

Millenial Falcon

"Millennium" Falcon.

 

[Knightshade]

Disagree that it would be insane. It would be incredibly useful. I'm sure it would be hard to do; doesn't mean it's the wrong approach. Who knows if it's any harder than what they're doing trying to solve unfamiliar environments. Unless perhaps you have experience designing autonomous driving systems.

You think "dedicated team of experts with massive funding, direct access to billions of miles of fleet data, direct access to hardware and base code, and years of specific experience can't figure out how to program for your daily drive- but Joe Insurance Salesman can without most of those resources, and using abstracted much higher level, no-direct-code-access programming, coding CAN" makes any sense?


Because it really doesn't.


Not to mention letting each car be individually, differently, programmed would make troubleshooting and fleet learning VASTLY VASTLY VASTLY more difficult.


There's a reason "your" car does not learn...ever. Everyones car updates, the same way (for their given country and HW) with fleet-wide firmware updates.

but not for 1.0 upgrades->? At least we have the camera and hopefully just an MCU upgrade. I'd hate it if they went the apple route.

1.0 was never offered FSD, at all. It didn't exist until 2.0.

 

[SergeyUser]

another question is will Tesla upgrade current 3 FSD owners to current hardware if 4.0 etc are needed.

They only have option to upgrade for free, refund or a lawsuit.

 

[dave999z]

You think "dedicated team of experts with massive funding, direct access to billions of miles of fleet data, direct access to hardware and base code, and years of specific experience can't figure out how to program for your daily drive- but Joe Insurance Salesman can without most of those resources, and using abstracted much higher level, no-direct-code-access programming, coding CAN" makes any sense?

When I said I should be able to program everything about my daily route, I didn't mean I should be able to code it like a software developer. I mean Tesla should design the system to be interactive, so I can start by setting my desired route on the map, then zooming in and indicating my preferred lane, then marking preferred speed at various points, etc. Then view back a recording of the route and click on where the lights actually are, etc. This is different than what Tesla is doing now. So your point that all these great engineers can't do this is just wrong. They are trying to train the system so the vehicle works in any environment. They haven't tried to allow the system to be tailored to specific routes aided by additional input about that route from the user.

 

[SergeyUser]

Wow, surprised that so many people actually agree, at least to some degree.

A few related thoughts:

1. Making FSD a subscription as opposed to an option will allow Tesla to release FSD in limited areas, which will allow staged deployment. Think about it. If you buy it as an option, it has to work ANYWHERE in the country you drive. If you sell it as a subscription, Tesla can geofence certain areas, and people will be fine with it (as they will be able to cancel subscription once moved from specific geofenced and well tested area).

2. Tesla is looking for some "shortcuts" to make it work. Let me explain. Some years ago, Tesla blamed other auto-manufacturers for using shortcuts in a form of Lidar. Here is the exact quote (Elon Musk: “Anyone relying on lidar is doomed.” Experts: Maybe not): "Lidar is really a shortcut," added Tesla AI guru Andrej Karpathy. "It sidesteps the fundamental problems of visual recognition that is necessary for autonomy. It gives a false sense of progress, and is ultimately a crutch."

It definitely makes sense, if your goal is to advance specialized AI. However, if you want to deliver FSD as fast as possible, you want to take ALL shortcuts you can have, because of you don't know when AI will be that good so no shortcuts will be needed. You can deliver your product faster with shortcuts, and then remove shortcuts when you don't need them.

Now, Tesla is taking its own shortcut - using maps and related info. If you truly want "no shortcuts" solution, as Andrej argued, you should make Tesla drive without maps at all, at least they should NOT be mandatory for Tesla to drive. Which is clearly not the case. Earlier released smart summon heavily relates on maps of parking lots. And the recent FSD stop signs update will not even activate unless you updated maps, so it knows all the info it needs about intersections, etc. Basically, Tesla can't even detect intersection by itself. It has to know that the intersection is there, and only knowing that it can then try to identify stop signs/traffic signals status. Obviously, Tesla can't trust its software to even detect intersections, so it has to use the shortcut.

All in all, I think Tesla realized it needs some shortcuts, which I'm fine with (maps). It will give us the product faster (at least in US). But don't expect any breakthroughs or something even close to ability for Tesla to drive in areas like NYC. Again, that would be difficult to admit that shortcuts are Ok and accept Lidar (I don't see anything wrong in allowing my car to have better senses than I do), so that means using maps and possibly geofencing once FSD subscription is deployed. Subscription will remove lots of liability from Tesla, by not having the "FSD delivery promise" permanent. And we, current FSD owners, will quite likely get something from Tesla for our patience.

 

[SigNC]

IMO almost zero chance. However, it's genius to charge people to help them train the product

 

[Knightshade]

Now, Tesla is taking its own shortcut - using maps and related info. If you truly want "no shortcuts" solution, as Andrej argued, you should make Tesla drive without maps at all, at least they should NOT be mandatory for Tesla to drive. Which is clearly not the case. Earlier released smart summon heavily relates on maps of parking lots. And the recent FSD stop signs update will not even activate unless you updated maps, so it knows all the info it needs about intersections, etc. Basically, Tesla can't even detect intersection by itself. It has to know that the intersection is there, and only knowing that it can then try to identify stop signs/traffic signals status. Obviously, Tesla can't trust its software to even detect intersections, so it has to use the shortcut.

This is...not entirely accurate.

Tesla can see intersections just fine (green has posted plenty of evidence of this)

The problem is it can't see through a tree that has overgrown a stop sign. So the map is there as an additional check on it.

Likewise, it can't see over a hill to know there's a light 50 feet after you crest the hill- so the map is there as an additional check on it.

Folks have confirmed the car will SEE AND STOP at unmapped signs- so it's not using the maps as the only check.


Likewise, the car can only see roughly 250 meters ahead. That's far too short to know what lane to be in to follow say a highway split coming in a mile if you're on the far other lane of a crowded highway.


some of this stuff is info a human would just "remember" and some of it is stuff a human would... use a map (or GPS or whatever) to know. So the car uses maps for this stuff. (and some of it, like a hidden stop sign, is stuff the human might just miss and the car won't)

Likewise, if you want to car to drive you someplace more than 250 meters away (range of vision) it has to know how to get there which again means it needs maps.



That's not a shortcut- there's no amount of "perfect vision driving" that fixes things you can't physically see in time (or at all).

 

[SergeyUser]

That's not a shortcut- there's no amount of "perfect vision driving" that fixes things you can't physically see in time (or at all).

Roads are designed for someone who can read signs and be warned about what you need to know (including intersections). Even if there are trees, other cars, etc. You can still drive, as a human.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Level 5 autonomy.

They’re gonna need ‘4.5’!!!
4 = geofenced suburbia
5 = anything a human can do (including driving around a fallen tree off road from an unlisted 4WD track in the middle of nowhere, through mud, rocks, on the precipice of a cliff, etc, etc)
‘4.5’ = anywhere & anything a human can do, but not off road

4 is 3 years away
‘4.5’ is 10 years away
5 is 30 years away

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Saw first hand the troubles Tesla are going to have at intersections for ‘4.5’ autonomy

Came to a country road T intersection today. 100km/hr (65mph) limit. Tree obstructed my view of orthogonal approaching traffic. Had to inch forward ever so marginally INTO the intersection to be able to see before making the turn.
Autopilot side cameras sit back several inches from where the driver’s eyeballs are. If that was autonomous, the car would be well into the adjacent road to allow the camera to see cars. It’s a problem!!

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

They only have option to upgrade for free, refund or a lawsuit.

That would potentially cost Tesla billion$ - they would have to refund the cost of the entire car

 

[run-the-joules]

I no longer believe Tesla is going to get anywhere close to what they promised early FSD buyers in a timeframe where the cars are still worth having around. Maybe 15 years or so.

I would love to be wrong but I think the legal system is going to be the only way most people get a resolution.