Will Tesla Buildup Superchargers to Accommodate Anticipated Demand from Ford, GM, Rivian, and whoever else, Adopting NACS circa 2024/2025?

[Rocky_H]

This is literally the same question as this existing large thread:

Will Tesla Buildup Superchargers to Accommodate Anticipated Demand from Ford, GM, Rivian, and whoever else, Adopting NACS circa 2024/2025?

With the recent news of Ford, GM, Rivian - and presumably others - moving to adopt Tesla's NACS plug and therefore be able to use the SuperCharger network (that is presumably v3 SuperChargers) starting circa 2024/2025, what's your best guess as to what impacts, if any, this will have on Tesla...

teslamotorsclub.com

I'm going to ask for a merge.

 

[rstx]

The "Group of 7" have committed to building 30k DC fast chargers that will have both J3400 and CCS. The first site is supposed to be online next summer. Mercedes is building another 2500 chargers at 400 sites. Surprised it took them so long.
Mercedes-Benz EV Charging Stations

 

[Spaghett]

And now Toyota/Lexus are on NACS (thought I can't seem to find any announcement from them, only Tesla):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715095472933876212

 

[Rocky_H]

I guess that means Toyota should start...you know...actually MAKING some electric cars then.

 

[Richbot]

details

 

[RayK]

And now Toyota/Lexus are on NACS (thought I can't seem to find any announcement from them, only Tesla):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715095472933876212

View attachment 983580

Toyota Adopts the North American Charging Standard to Expand Customer Charging Options - Toyota USA Newsroom

PLANO, Texas (Oct. 19, 2023) – Toyota Motor North America, Inc. (TMNA) today announced it has reached an agreement with Tesla, Inc. to adopt the North American Charging Standard (NACS) on its battery electric vehicles (BEVs) beginning in 2025. In […]

pressroom.toyota.com

 

[cmy4x4]

Posted in another thread (thanks @reddy) spotted on I-40 in Amarillo where there are already 20 SC stalls and 24 more coming at the new Buc-ees.

 

[TespaceX]

They better build out more, and faster.

Recently, I've been having to wait every time I go to a supercharger near me during the day. Not a single time I went was there already an empty charging spot. And, this is without any magic docks or anything anywhere. Ridiculous.

 

[E90alex]

They better build out more, and faster.

Recently, I've been having to wait every time I go to a supercharger near me during the day. Not a single time I went was there already an empty charging spot. And, this is without any magic docks or anything anywhere. Ridiculous.

Ridiculous is all the people that live locally relying on supercharging instead of at home or work charging. Those are the people causing supercharger backups. The supercharger network was supposed to ease long distance travel, not to replace home/work charging.

 

[TespaceX]

Ridiculous is all the people that live locally relying on supercharging instead of at home or work charging. Those are the people causing supercharger backups. The supercharger network was supposed to ease long distance travel, not to replace home/work charging.

Well, that is not Tesla's plan for a looooong time now. All the superchargers near me (and there are 9 stations within a 15-mile radius) are all located within a shopping center or mall. Obviously, not meant for travelers.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Well, that is not Tesla's plan for a looooong time now. All the superchargers near me (and there are 9 stations within a 15-mile radius) are all located within a shopping center or mall. Obviously, not meant for travelers.

Just because it's at a shopping center doesn't mean it's not meant for travellers. A shopping center, especially near a highway exit allows amenities for people to use while it's charging. It also are one of the few locations that tend to naturally have high power already wired in.

For example in the SF Bay Area there are plenty of stations at shopping centers, but many of them are right off the highway, so perfect for travellers.

 

[RayK]

Ridiculous is all the people that live locally relying on supercharging instead of at home or work charging. Those are the people causing supercharger backups. The supercharger network was supposed to ease long distance travel, not to replace home/work charging.

Well, that is not Tesla's plan for a looooong time now. All the superchargers near me (and there are 9 stations within a 15-mile radius) are all located within a shopping center or mall. Obviously, not meant for travelers.

The Urban Superchargers that I frequent (infrequently), when the two ChargePoint stations are busy and I really need a charge, is also located on the edge of what would be considered a strip mall (Princeton Plaza). Next to an Outdoor Supply Hardware store, a liquor store and a Hallmark store, these are in no way intended to be used by "travelers". Several miles off the main highway that passes through the area and further than the two other Supercharger sites, one of which has 250kW chargers (Westfield Oakridge Mall), as well as many Destination chargers for the shoppers at the mall. The other site is located at the outer edge of a Bass Pro Shop and is populated by about 20 Urban Superchargers. I doubt that many travelers would choose this site, but there are food and bathrooms nearby so maybe.

I choose not to have home charging at this point in time simply because it's cheaper for me to use the ChargePoint stations and even the Urban Supercharger, rather than the >$0.33/kWh that Plunder Gouge and Extort charges. We don't have the cheap power like you guys in the PNW. And now that I'm retired, I don't have the free charging that I used to get at work.

 

[E90alex]

Well, that is not Tesla's plan for a looooong time now. All the superchargers near me (and there are 9 stations within a 15-mile radius) are all located within a shopping center or mall. Obviously, not meant for travelers.

People need amenities when charging. As mentioned, most are near freeways for easy access.

It’s a catch 22. More superchargers enable more people without home charging to buy the cars, but more people buying cars without home charging requires more superchargers.

You can’t complain about all these local people charging everyday clogging up the superchargers if you’re one of them yourself doing the same thing.

Relying on DCFC is just not sustainable for mass EV adoption if no one has home charging. DCFC is still too slow vs pumping gas and we would need exponentially more chargers which costs a lot of money and takes up a lot of space.

Cities and businesses need to massively build out more L2 charging wherever people are going to park for hours like parking garages, street parking meters, on street power poles, need to require multi unit housing to install charging etc.

 

[Tony8489]

I choose not to have home charging at this point in time simply because it's cheaper for me to use the ChargePoint stations and even the Urban Supercharger, rather than the >$0.33/kWh that Plunder Gouge and Extort charges.

In urban areas most superchargers are time of use. In San Jose even the urban SCs are 46 cents/kWh between noon and 8PM and the faster ones 56 cents/kWh. Off peak the range is 23-35 cents/kWh.

I have one of the last Model S with free supercharging. The proliferation of new v3 superchargers in SoCal has induced me to charge locally more frequently. Before 2023 it was rarely worth my time due to there being fewer of them and their being 72kW or frequently paired 150kW. I have solar net metering with a municipal utility averaging 16 cents/kWh so I would never use local SCs if not for it being free. But when I charge now at v3s in those afternoon hours I do not understand why there are so many Model 3s and Ys there paying 50+ cents/kWh.

My personal experience described above leads me to believe that Tesla is building out superchargers faster in the last couple of years relative to cars on the road than in the previous 5 years I've been an owner. But that's in the urban areas like SoCal where most of us owners live. On our recent Southwest road trip to Mesa Verde, the only nearby supercharger was an antique 4 stall 120kW at Farmington, NM and even that one is 96 miles from Mesa Verde.

With the other manufacturers adopting NACS, some future Tesla SCs will be subsidized, so I'm confident the overall buildout with keep pace with growth in eligible EV sales from all manufacturers. One of the other threads suggested that the southern Colorado supercharger desert will be filled by state/federal subsidized superchargers within a couple of years.

 

[RayK]

In urban areas most superchargers are time of use. In San Jose even the urban SCs are 46 cents/kWh between noon and 8PM and the faster ones 56 cents/kWh. Off peak the range is 23-35 cents/kWh.

I don't know if you read my post on Page 1 of this thread but I charge at a ChargePoint CHAdeMO station near my house for $0.19/kWh. So this beats the lowest (Urban) Supercharger in the area. Of course it cost me $500 for the CHAdeMO adapter many years ago but I'm getting my money's worth out of it. When I do have to use a Supercharger around town, I almost always pay peak rates since that's when I need the charge. I don't plan on my charging to take place during off-peak hours simply because my Supercharger visits are only because the ChargePoint stations are being used and I don't want to, or can't, wait.

I have one of the last Model S with free supercharging. The proliferation of new v3 superchargers in SoCal has induced me to charge locally more frequently. Before 2023 it was rarely worth my time due to there being fewer of them and their being 72kW or frequently paired 150kW. I have solar net metering with a municipal utility averaging 16 cents/kWh so I would never use local SCs if not for it being free. But when I charge now at v3s in those afternoon hours I do not understand why there are so many Model 3s and Ys there paying 50+ cents/kWh.

I also have solar on my roof with PG&E NEM, installed back in Nov. 2010. It's a small system, about 3.2kW (lower now that there are two dead microinverters) and was put in place way before I ever thought of owning an EV. If I can, I might try upgrading the system to use panels that are now a lot more efficient than what's currently up there, but that's an expense I have to think really hard about (now retired, but wife still working a part-time job, and with both kids out of the house).

edit: Just went out to the car and checked the rates for the Urban Supercharger I use. Currently off-peak is $0.23. Peak is only $0.28, so still cheaper than my home's off-peak pricing. If you want to verify my numbers, this is the Blossom Hill Road Supercharger located in the Princeton Plaza here in San Jose.

 

[EbS-P]

People need amenities when charging. As mentioned, most are near freeways for easy access.

It’s a catch 22. More superchargers enable more people without home charging to buy the cars, but more people buying cars without home charging requires more superchargers.

You can’t complain about all these local people charging everyday clogging up the superchargers if you’re one of them yourself doing the same thing.

Relying on DCFC is just not sustainable for mass EV adoption if no one has home charging. DCFC is still too slow vs pumping gas and we would need exponentially more chargers which costs a lot of money and takes up a lot of space.

Cities and businesses need to massively build out more L2 charging wherever people are going to park for hours like parking garages, street parking meters, on street power poles, need to require multi unit housing to install charging etc.

As an experiment I have been supercharging almost exclusively for the last 3 months. I have a December 16’ MX with free supercharging. The SC is near a gym we frequent at least 5 times a week. It’s really not been a big deal. Except for two long trips that I needed 90% soc for. Exclusively SCing has required very little planning and not been an inconvenience at all in-fact one month i charged 599 kWh. I have home charging and I figure it costs me $399 a year to charge at home.

So I think DC fast charging is probably the only why for those that live in really high density housing. No way there will be money for every parking spot to have L2 charging available until we change building code. Free work charging will be nonexistent the overwhelming majority of the population.

Tesla will continue to win bids for charger installations. They have the economic scale factor and an established supply chain. Good luck to anyone who want to compete. I foresee some anti monopoly cases in the future.

 

[SO16]

They better build out more, and faster.

Recently, I've been having to wait every time I go to a supercharger near me during the day. Not a single time I went was there already an empty charging spot. And, this is without any magic docks or anything anywhere. Ridiculous.

Thy do need to build more in areas like you describe but the problem isn’t that horrible. The vast majority of locations I stop at when traveling from Nova Scotia to FL to Montana to Michigan, are rarely even 1/3 full.

 

[E90alex]

As an experiment I have been supercharging almost exclusively for the last 3 months. I have a December 16’ MX with free supercharging. The SC is near a gym we frequent at least 5 times a week. It’s really not been a big deal. Except for two long trips that I needed 90% soc for. Exclusively SCing has required very little planning and not been an inconvenience at all in-fact one month i charged 599 kWh. I have home charging and I figure it costs me $399 a year to charge at home.

So I think DC fast charging is probably the only why for those that live in really high density housing. No way there will be money for every parking spot to have L2 charging available until we change building code. Free work charging will be nonexistent the overwhelming majority of the population.

Tesla will continue to win bids for charger installations. They have the economic scale factor and an established supply chain. Good luck to anyone who want to compete. I foresee some anti monopoly cases in the future.

It just so happens it works for your specific situation. Free supercharging gives you more incentive to use it. Old MX with slower fast charging takes longer to charge, giving you time to get a quick workout in.

Someone who doesn’t frequent the gyms or other businesses near their local supercharger would have to go out of their way to use one. Usually supercharging is fast enough that you can’t really go to a sit down restaurant nearby so people have to sit and wait if they don’t use the nearby businesses.

599kWh of charging would be near or over $300 in many places.

 

[vickh]

I guess that means Toyota should start...you know...actually MAKING some electric cars then.

They will be used to charge hydrogen generators

Shame that co. that pioneered hybrids can't even do PHEVs right.

 

[vickh]

They better build out more, and faster.

Recently, I've been having to wait every time I go to a supercharger near me during the day. Not a single time I went was there already an empty charging spot. And, this is without any magic docks or anything anywhere. Ridiculous.

magic docks?