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I always read leasing hurts bottom line. But look at their quarterly letter, auto leasing gross margin is: 102/208 = ~50%. While auto sales margin is <19%. Can anyone enlighten me here?

How many MS were sold on a much lower ASP? How many 3s in China are not sold? Yes, you can repeat thousand times, because you are selectively blind to the facts. Panasonic was a problem at a time. But why tesla did not push them harder? Because the order rate was not increased on the pace if...

If tesla is really immune of FUD, the lead time for you to buy any low trim m3 should be at least 3 months, even if you are at US. Look at the value they are offering: cheaper than bmw 3 series, better performance, better infotainment, better TCO, better almost everything. But bmw 3's US sales...

I am convinced Tesla needs to make the service 20% gross margin to actually improve the service quality. The reason is quite simple: as a cash starved company, internal resources including human resources are tightly controlled by the finance department. Since the service department is a loss...

Sometimes I feel CEOs of some huge corporations are even more stupid than politicians. Yes, most politicians have no understanding of technical details. But they still need to read tea leaves, i.e. the will of lobbyists and eventually voters. But huge corporations executive suite only need to...

In his model, tesla would always pull forward demand because he refuses to recognize the real growth curve of the EV adoption. Right, in 2021, tesla would be pulling forward the 2025 demand. Maybe stock analysts became politicians. They just say things to cover his base/ass. Because their...

The GF1 can't do 10k/w or panasonic can't do 10k/w is a Failure, at least on the standard we should hold tesla. But everyone fails sometime. Let's focus on moving forward.

It's gonna be beginning of July. End of the quarter, everyone is trying to help delivery again I suppose.

If FSD and robotaxi comes to life in four years, the new car sale in big cities gonna collapse even quicker. I was talking about a lower growth projection of tesla sales. fsd and robotaxi would be <50% likelihood and 10* value creation for tsla in three years while the market value it almost $0...

yes, people will keep cheap ICE for a while because it is mostly paid off. But between buying a 4 year $20k m3 and a new civic, more and more people will buy the EV because it runs much cheaper. This way, even the cheap ICE OEM will feel the pain, given time.

You are myopic in this sense. In my wildest picture, musk industries will produce an Army of AI controlled robots that automatically mine and colonize the entire solar system. That is value of multiple of $100T, not valuation.

Why do you think he cherry picked the facts that look bad to tesla while ignored the good ones? I am not sure he is that blind. I'd rather suspect his motivation.

I think tsla could create a JV with panasonic in the short term to attack the cell scarcity problem. Panasonic's current equipment can be counted as a minority stake in the JV so their investment will be compensated. And in the long term, tsla can buy out the JV when cash on hand is not a problem.

Yes, only saving $2000 CAD a year. Keeping an ICE costs $2000 CAD more. It is almost like people pay extra to get the privilege to pollute?

I meant raising price for the new production. When I said limited production, it is limited at 10k/y. After first batch being sold out, they can consider raising price.

Sorry I misspoke. What I meant is they have limited capacity every year. IIRC elon said he expected roadster 2 sales <10k/y. So the designed production capacity would be less than 10k/y, at least in the first couple years.

To maximize the psychological superiority of EV, tesla should raise the roaster 2 price at least $3000 dollars every month once it's sold out. It is a limited production anyway, why not make it an appreciating asset.

This is exactly why tsla needs to make service a profit center, 20% GM like the manufacturing counterpart. Now it is a vicious circle, negative service margin --> lower priority/resource for service department --> slower service --> less service volume --> more negative service margin...

Your cash generation theory is valid. But I have several concerns/questions. 1. Yes, the model 3 program is profitable if you only look at the manufacturing part. But tsla has 4b+/y of sga+research needs to be paid for by major programs. S3X are the only programs pulling their weight, all the...

Exactly. The real tesla buyers average age is close to 50. How many of them watch youtube on a regular basis? All the enthusiasm within teens are great but it takes at least 5-10 years to translate into real sales. Tesla needs to directly target the decision makers in the household with the...

But tesla does not qualify for it?

Charging is a legit barrier especially for street parking people. But the least we can do is to ask people to just lease the ICE. So they can reevaluate in 3 years and not stuck with possible collapsing resale value.

It is unbelievable at this stage tesla still does not consider charge higher delivery fees for the remote markets. Customers understand the extra fees due to higher delivery cost. I have to say somebody with better financial/accounting background in tesla should stand up to Elon. Please give up...

I am not sure. I think the current slower pace in China sales is mainly the result of imported tax etc and lack of government subsidies. Since china produced SR will avoid both, even with the same internal revenue per car for tsla, the MSRP for consumers would be much lower.

I had similar view on 5 year long term. But now I realize a company's development is path dependent. Without short term step achievement, 5 year long term results will be realized, maybe, in 10 years and 70% of the time.

Please read before using "a million times". This was the first april selling m3 in Europe. There were 10k+ inventory+intransit m3. Where are they?!

This is something I think tesla is too naive. Most of the other cars manufacturers started to produce 2019 model in the middle of 2018, if not earlier. The only reason they started producing after July is because they are way behind the schedule. If tesla plays with the "industry stardards", no...

Could anyone helps me I see contradictory information on Europe delivery. The published April delivery #s in Europe are not that good. I imagine there are 5k+ inventory m3 in Europe. But not like US, there are no inventory m3 to shop from online. So which scenario is more likely: 1. Inventory...

No need to apologize even if I could claim "I said so". But that is not the point because EVnow and I am not professional financial people and we do not see the numbers they can see inside tesla. On Dec 20, can we see the number of inventory cars like they do? It's like watching sports. We know...

Actually i still did not make myself clear. Q1 was bad not because of low delivery like some people focused on, but the combination low delivery, no production growth and low ASP/margin of 3 and low delivery, low production and low ASP/margin of S/X. For 3, delivery was not a major problem, the...

Now I think delivery Wave was actually a scapegoat for bad Q1. On the contrary, the real reason was not able to achieve the wave in Q1 end. The root cause, of course, was bad planning. As we can see, so many inventory m3 were unable to be delivered in Europe and China. In a sense, if tsla's...

You people still do not get it. High margin/ high cash flow now is the optimal to achieve the long term mission of Tesla. It’s like cell phone in the early 90s, you had to sell it expensive to accumulate more capex for the later generation.

Exactly, this is why i like the interface of slack.

This is the part I do not understand. Why tsla does not offer c I think we all miscalculate the consumer awareness development curve. The reason it is not 10k-15k stable demand is not because consumers have absolutely better options but most of them simply do not understand tesla.

This is not necessarily the case. The offer is not unlimited amount and i guess some investors even do not have chance to participate. On the other hand, shorts can participate and use the new ammo to dump in the open market.

That's exactly the problem. I know they have this "policy", for idealism reasons i guess. But for your mission, you can't afford too much other idealism.

It's simply not enough. Supposedly, Europe would have larger demand for m3 than US. But by your calculation(iirc), the unit revenue for same trim in Europe is less than US. How does that pricing make sense? Again, the local price should be determined according to the local competition. Due to...

People always looking at percentage margin and thinks tsla is doing fine. The original plan was, keeps 20% margin, drops asp and INCREASE production substantially. But tsla did first two without the last one. The first two leads to lower unit dollar margin. But without substantial production...

I don't understand his logic here. In my impression, FCA deal was not included in q1 financial. Am I wrong?

In 10Q: The in-process research and development (“IPR&D”), which we acquired from SolarCity, is accounted for as an indefinite-lived asset until the completion or abandonment of the associated research and development efforts. If the research and development efforts are successfully completed...

It's all about capital efficiency. If the shares added to buy out solar city was all cash in bank and no debt assumed, there would be no more capital raise for tsla, almost forever. $2.6B stocks +3B debt, for $750m "cash flow"(no GF2 idling cost was included) 10 quarter, 5.5% fake yearly return...

Maximizing short term cash flow/margin is for the sake of the mission. In any time frame, their last q strategy was suboptimal.

Q1 is apparently a bad q exacerbated by poor planning/pricing. Blaming is pointless. But we can surely improve from what went wrong. I think Elon is more of an engineer than an operation guy. So he should delegate more planning power to the operation executives. Even a special team should be...

tesla should only honor $35k m3 to reservation holders. That kept the promise and warms the first adopters' heart.

That would be a model 2's mission, starting $25k, without ap/fsd hw, that simply sells 5M units/year by fuel savings.

Your idea enlightened me. Say an average full time uber driver drives 50k miles, assuming 30mpg and $3.9 gas in california, That is $6.5k/y gas with potentially $5k/y gas savings for drivers. Even with a driver, tsla network easily beats uber and lyft in terms of cost, safety, comfort and class.

powerwall is 14kwh and $6700 . It is 75kwh for a long range m3. 75/14*6700 = $35892. I wound not say 4* higher?

These rooting for tsla's bankruptcy are exactly the people who rooted for the freedom of the tobacco companies to kill people. Very soon, you can brag before your brother because V8, afterall, is so 20th century artifact.

Everytime I see a Norway sales #, I am curious what Norway pension fund is doing. They have $1T to invest and i heard they got rid of some oil holdings recently. Tesla is an energy play, a high tech play and can be put into other categories as well. 5% of tsla is only a little bit more than $2B...

If tesla knows what they want and can get it without the resource limitation other than time, the SP would be at least >$600.