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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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My wife loves ours as well, but I cant pry her minivan out of her hands for the kids. She likes taking the model X shopping. The looks I get at the Wholefoods parking lot. Dont tell my wife.
One of my little kiddos revolted and wanted a minivan, but was easily swayed by the music selection available in the MX, however proceed with caution some kids songs cannot be unheard, and may be repeated on a daily basis...
 
The biggest question in average sales price might well be how high the high end goes. if they do it as BMW and Mercedes do, they might well see a much higher price for M3 on average, while many of the aspiration S buyers disappear. The question is whether S will be cannibalized significantly. The recent speculation suggests an effect, but I rather suspect it is a timing influence rather than a real drop. S buyers right ow may be simply waiting for the inevitable next big improvement.

We'll soon know.

The S and X owners are second in line for M3s after employees. It's conceivable that aspirational S owners will trade down for a new vehicle and another $7,500 credit.
 
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My wife loves ours as well, but I cant pry her minivan out of her hands for the kids. She likes taking the model X shopping. The looks I get at the Wholefoods parking lot. Dont tell my wife.

Mine is the opposite. I was able to check my app following her text that she was on the final leg home from work last night. That way I could time dinner. Read my comments just above #20469 ~ we are retired; except she wants to keep working to keep me in the lifestyle I got her accustomed too:) Love that MX:)
 
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A quick look at relative sales volumes for competitive classed vehicles (BMW 3-Series in particular) might be instructive. I haven't looked at that data recently...

Model3_0617_zpstv5dnbho.jpg
 
The S and X owners are second in line for M3s after employees. It's conceivable that aspirational S owners will trade down for a new vehicle and another $7,500 credit.
It is a possibility.

Used Model S seem to sell pretty fast. Although I think Tesla doesn't do much better than break even on them, the important point is that this is more Teslas driving around and more visibility. More free advertising, in other words.
 
The good news for me is that despite major losses in the last 2 weeks I have no margin call and my total position of TSLA shares plus calls is completely intact. I have not sold a single share or call and have zero intentions of selling anything anytime soon
Last 2 weeks change nothing for me because the long-term trend is it still rapidly and steeply up and I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that over a period of time Tesla is going to handily outperform the stock market. In fact I'm looking forward to putting another million dollars in tesla stock over the next 2 to 3 months timeframe and have 100% confidence that I will make a total fortune on my tesla holdings over the next several months to quarters
Short-term matters absolutely nothing to me I don't care for a few millions here or there it's all part of the game
I appreciate confidence, but being 100% confident in something you don't directly control is awfully bold. I'm curious how you can be so certain. Is a fire impossible? Earthquake? Just a plain old freak accident with one of the early 3s in August that makes CNN? I wouldn't argue with you about where the price will be, but being 100% confident seems a bit risky.
 
I know this is something I've mentioned before, but it would affect ASP of Tesla vehicles if they do put it into place, is that eventually EAP and FSD would become a subscription model instead of a purchased in advance feature. I think that in order to promote the affordability of FSD for Model 3 owners, that either a substantial reduction in the pricing for EAP and FSD must occur, or a subscription/rent-to-own option must be available. In either case, I suspect that once Tesla Mobility is up and running, that FSD will be available if you opt-in to Tesla Mobility while it's being rented out. (FSD available to the TM customers even if the owner hasn't purchased it for themself.)

My guess is that it will be free for the Tesla network. Meaning if you put your car into the network, FSD is free for when the car drives itself in that mode. No reason to make it cheap for people. If they want the car to drive them, they will pay for the feature.
 
Historically the market has never been right in advance. Once TE will become an obvious and disproportional success that's when it'll be massively rewarded by the market.

A modest bump from the South Australia deal yesterday. If Tesla is able to pull off an Australian hat trick this year (South Australia plus Victoria 40MW+/100MWh+ and Queensland 100MW/??MWh) perhaps the market may be a bit more responsive.
 
The S and X owners are second in line for M3s after employees. It's conceivable that aspirational S owners will trade down for a new vehicle and another $7,500 credit.

I conducted a survey here and I did not find that to be the case. Though a larger percentage of current owners where undecided, like 30%. Most of current owners wanted another Tesla. But that 30% undecided was/is a big number. If 30 percent of current owners have a reservation and half of my undecided choose to trade down that is 200,000 x 30% = 60,000 x 15% = 9000 cars world wide. That is really nothing in the greater scheme of things. With nearly 300 sales/service centers worldwide, that is only 30 each that will come in over the next 12 months. Its a drop in the proverbial bucket.

Poll: Model S/X owners with Model 3 Reservation
 
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Tesla just updated their production and delivery guidance from Monday. Added additional detail on vehicles in transit.

UPDATE - Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries


PALO ALTO, Calif., July 07, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- UPDATE: In response to questions we have received about the number of customer vehicles in transit at the end of Q2, we are updating our Q2 delivery release to provide this information. This information will continue to be included in all future quarters.

In addition to Q2 deliveries, about 3,500 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q3 2017.

Tesla (Nasdaq:TSLA) delivered just over 22,000 vehicles in Q2, of which just over 12,000 were Model S and just over 10,000 were Model X. This represents a 53% increase over Q2 2016. Total vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2017 were approximately 47,100.

The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history.

Provided global economic conditions do not worsen considerably, we are confident that combined deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of 2017 will likely exceed deliveries in the first half of 2017.

Q2 production totaled 25,708 vehicles, bringing first half 2017 production to 51,126.

We always want our customers to experience the newest versions of Model S and X while their cars are in service, so we added fully loaded, newly built cars to our service loaner fleet. We always want the service loaner Tesla to be *better* than the customer car being serviced. The customer should never suffer for something that is our fault.

We also finally added a sufficient number of Model X cars to our test drive and display fleet because our stores had been operating with far short of what was needed and, in some cases, none at all. There appears to be substantial untapped sales potential for Model X. It should also be noted that production quality and field reliability of the Model X, for which Tesla has been fairly criticized, have improved dramatically. It is now rare for a newly produced Model X to have initial quality problems.

The first certified production Model 3 that meets all regulatory requirements will be completed this week, with a handover of ~30customer cars at our Fremont factory on July 28. More details to follow soon.

Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
 
Yes. But those are the kind of jokes kids like.

I resemble that.

Edit: Since I am a panentheist I've always thought the big bang was a divine orgasm. But now with advances in string theory associated with the multiverse idea, perhaps the origin is just a consequence of what might be called the divine alimentary system. Dante was right in his title, it's all part of a divine comedy. But we digress.
 
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It looks like delivery efficiency is improving: In-transit:
3Q16 5,500
4Q16 6,450
1Q17 4,650
2Q17 3,550

more then likely depends on where they are being delivered. With production back loaded in the quarter, its hard to deliver cars to China and other far flung locations when the car comes off the line a week before the end of the quarter. I know the last 2 quarters before Q22017 was a big push in China/HK.
 
The bear raid bounced off technical resistance at a point where several technical analysts said it was likely to. The bear raiders have therefore lost the support of the momentum bots. I think they're losing the support of the newsbots. I suspect they're still trying to drive it down further but they've lost control. I'm seeing articles by swing traders calling for people to buy TSLA now.

It'll be really interesting when we see updated institutional holding numbers -- I think those are only released quarterly and we won't see them until November 15th -- I wouldn't be surprised at all if we have institutional accumulation this week. Incidentally I think we find out Q2 institutional changes on August 15th. (I'm having trouble understanding the rules for passive institutional holders who are *aren''t* US banks or investment firms, like Tencent. I think they might not be required to report until next January or if they go up to 10%, but someone who understands the rules should weigh in; they might be required to report if they go up to 6%, I just can't make out the meaning of the regulations.)
 
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