2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[RobStark]

Ruh-Roh: New Texas Wind Energy Storage System Should Make Coal Nervous (And Natural Gas, Too)

That could make lithium-ion battery stakeholders nervous, too. According to Apex, the cost advantages of CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) over large scale Li-ion arrays are significant:

Cost of storage for CAES is $18/kWh, versus $435/kWh for a lithium-ion battery.

CAES operating life of more than 30 years is three times that of a lithium-ion battery, resulting in dramatically lower annualized costs.

One additional advantage is that CAES is essentially an underground operation. Apex anticipates that surface “disturbance” can be kept as low as 10 acres for a 317 megawatt CAES system.

Apex points out that the basic technology has a long track record of reliability, although according to the company there are only two CAES plants currently in operation, one in Huntorf, Germany and the McIntosh plant in Alabama.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

I thought this was an interesting article. The CAES in Alabama has been in operation since 1981. If it is proven tech and dirt cheap why is their only one such operation in the US and only two in the world?

 

[ggr]

Quick question: I think Tesla management has always talked about battery costs in terms of pack costs, and even disparaged others who cite cell costs alone as "battery costs." Thus when Straubel said at the Edison Electric Institute talk (

see minute 36) that he would be "disappointed if their battery costs were not below $100 KWh by 2020", I assume he was referring to pack costs, not cells cost alone. However, he was not explicit about pack costs vs. cells costs in that particular comment. Does any one else have a link that clearly indicates they prefer to talk about pack costs and not cell costs? Or, even better a comment that explicitly shows they are aiming to get below $100 KWh for their pack costs by 2020.

Or, am I mistaken. Was Straubel actually referring to cell costs there?

Any thoughts appreciated.

Actually, Tesla folk are very careful to say "cell" when they mean cell, and "battery" for the big storage unit thingy with cells, internal controller, cooling etc built in (but not necessarily the inverter and external control). When they say "battery" they mean what you are calling the "pack".

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm only one opinion, and I'll probably be disliked for this post, but I think Level 5 is a long way off. Years. Level 4 is probably some years away. I've been in software dev for over 20 years and I don't think this is an easy problem, at all. There are a huge number of edge cases that, due to safety, must be accounted for before true FSD is ready.

I'd like to be wrong.

Couldn't edge cases be flagged for manual correction as they happen? Won't prevent that accident but future ones? Also, if this is true machine or deep learning, won't central processing computer(s) pick them up if the driver is successful in executing the proper maneuver? Of course if that maneuver kills 5 pedestrians we're back to a problem already discussed by many here that makes your case for concern.

On the other hand, probably always there will be some edge cases neither anticipated nor learned in time to prevent tragedy. They have not happened in this world-line yet. Así es la vida.

Edit: Uncertainty is always the price for freedom. It wouldn't be possible otherwise. That may also just be a consequence of Heisenberg's great equation and perhaps its explanation aside from the observer/object hypothesis. (I'm sure some quantum magician said this before.)

Re-edit: God, I can't let this go! The more the degrees of freedom the more difficult is uncertainty. Even with infinite degrees of freedom in the quantum world, there are only proximate solutions in the "real" world.

 

[Dennisj00]

Southern Company building the future of energy with new battery storage research demonstration

ATLANTA, July 12, 2017 /PRNewswire/

Located in Pensacola, Florida, at Gulf Power's Douglas L. McCrary Training and Storm Center, the new research project will test and evaluate a 250 kilowatt/1 megawatt-hour Tesla Powerpack lithium-ion industrial energy storage system over a two-year period. Insights gained from the demonstration are expected to accelerate the development of battery storage technology across the Southern Company system


Glad to know interesting things happening now in Florida as well. Till like last Nov, SolarCity did not even have a presence there - due to all the lobbying from Utilities etc.

@ValueAnalyst this is a great example of utility slowness. Let's study this problem for two years and then see what the decision looks like then . . . I think in 3-5 years they'll be behind the eight ball.

Just like the ice mfgs.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Ruh-Roh: New Texas Wind Energy Storage System Should Make Coal Nervous (And Natural Gas, Too)

That could make lithium-ion battery stakeholders nervous, too. According to Apex, the cost advantages of CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) over large scale Li-ion arrays are significant:

Cost of storage for CAES is $18/kWh, versus $435/kWh for a lithium-ion battery.

CAES operating life of more than 30 years is three times that of a lithium-ion battery, resulting in dramatically lower annualized costs.

One additional advantage is that CAES is essentially an underground operation. Apex anticipates that surface “disturbance” can be kept as low as 10 acres for a 317 megawatt CAES system.

Apex points out that the basic technology has a long track record of reliability, although according to the company there are only two CAES plants currently in operation, one in Huntorf, Germany and the McIntosh plant in Alabama.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

I thought this was an interesting article. The CAES in Alabama has been in operation since 1981. If it is proven tech and dirt cheap why is their only one such operation in the US and only two in the world?

I think,
-A battery reacts in milliseconds to/from the grid. Very little energy is lost.
-Compressed air system reacts slowly. Energy is lost in the process.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@ValueAnalyst this is a great example of utility slowness. Let's study this problem for two years and then see what the decision looks like then . . . I think in 3-5 years they'll be behind the eight ball.

Just like the ice mfgs.

Funny, I was just reading the same article.

I look forward to the day 1 MWh deals are too small for an article.

 

[techmaven]

Ruh-Roh: New Texas Wind Energy Storage System Should Make Coal Nervous (And Natural Gas, Too)

I thought this was an interesting article. The CAES in Alabama has been in operation since 1981. If it is proven tech and dirt cheap why is their only one such operation in the US and only two in the world?

I really, really, really want compressed air energy storage to work. It's not easy.

#1: Efficiency. The current efficiency according to them is ~42%. They hope to utilize the heat to get efficiency to 70%. That's terrible.

#2: LCOS analysis not given. They provided the data for the cost of installation, which has that dramatic $435/kWh versus $18/kWh comparison. But at 85-90% efficiency versus ~42% efficiency, the LCOS likely doesn't work for compressed air.

#3: Compressor and turbine breakdown: the full on costs of maintenance are not cheap.

#4: Geological concerns: there may be few places where this is cost effective and large caverns under significant pressure may cause non-trivial issues.

Would love to see this work, like pumped water storage. Efficient and reliable compression is still the #1 issue. But there are reasons why these technologies haven't taken off yet. I really wanted flywheel energy storage to be reality too... but that also has a lot of problems in real world applications. Most of the systems supply a vast amount of power for a very short period of time. Think about powering a large data center for about 10-30 seconds, enough time for other generation sources to kick in. The failure modes however... whew. If the spinning goes bad, it can be a very tragic day for anyone nearby.

 

[RobStark]

I think,
-A battery reacts in milliseconds to/from the grid. Very little energy is lost.
-Compressed air system reacts slowly. Energy is lost in the process.

More energy is lost but still claiming cost of $18 kWh.

It reacts quicker than combined cycle gas plant, so quick enough. The world has been able to get by without BES energy leveling services.

The bigger point is if it is $18 per kWh why haven't there been more built? These kinds of projects always triple in price, at the very least, after all is said and done.

And their quoting $435 per kWh for lithium-ion was true about three years ago. While Tesla should get it under $100 soon.

 

[mongo]

Ruh-Roh: New Texas Wind Energy Storage System Should Make Coal Nervous (And Natural Gas, Too)

That could make lithium-ion battery stakeholders nervous, too. According to Apex, the cost advantages of CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) over large scale Li-ion arrays are significant:

Cost of storage for CAES is $18/kWh, versus $435/kWh for a lithium-ion battery.

CAES operating life of more than 30 years is three times that of a lithium-ion battery, resulting in dramatically lower annualized costs.

One additional advantage is that CAES is essentially an underground operation. Apex anticipates that surface “disturbance” can be kept as low as 10 acres for a 317 megawatt CAES system.

Apex points out that the basic technology has a long track record of reliability, although according to the company there are only two CAES plants currently in operation, one in Huntorf, Germany and the McIntosh plant in Alabama.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

I thought this was an interesting article. The CAES in Alabama has been in operation since 1981. If it is proven tech and dirt cheap why is their only one such operation in the US and only two in the world?

Read the article, but puzzled: One quote of strangeness :"Compressed air has both a price and operational advantage over batteries. Salt caverns are cheaper than lithium-ion batteries, and the system can fill the cavern with air while generating electricity. You can’t charge and discharge a battery at the same time."

Why would you use electricity to fill the cavern at the same time that you need to generate electricity from the air in the cavern? They are correct that you can't charge and drain a battery simultaneously, that's because the electrons are too smart to waste energy going though an electrochemical reaction twice when they can just go to a load.

I didn't see an efficiency number for the plant, I suppose if the volume to surface area ratio is low, the temperature rise from compression will not be totally lost. Although, with the natural gas heating stage, is this more of a time delay electric supercharged natural gas plant?

Lastly, this only works where there is a cavern of sufficient tightness and size, battery storage can go almost anywhere...

 

[FredTMC]

Ruh-Roh: New Texas Wind Energy Storage System Should Make Coal Nervous (And Natural Gas, Too)

That could make lithium-ion battery stakeholders nervous, too. According to Apex, the cost advantages of CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) over large scale Li-ion arrays are significant:

Cost of storage for CAES is $18/kWh, versus $435/kWh for a lithium-ion battery.

CAES operating life of more than 30 years is three times that of a lithium-ion battery, resulting in dramatically lower annualized costs.

One additional advantage is that CAES is essentially an underground operation. Apex anticipates that surface “disturbance” can be kept as low as 10 acres for a 317 megawatt CAES system.

Apex points out that the basic technology has a long track record of reliability, although according to the company there are only two CAES plants currently in operation, one in Huntorf, Germany and the McIntosh plant in Alabama.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

I thought this was an interesting article. The CAES in Alabama has been in operation since 1981. If it is proven tech and dirt cheap why is their only one such operation in the US and only two in the world?

I didn't read the whole article. I'm guessing the efficiency is low to compress the air.

 

[STARR X]

@ValueAnalyst this is a great example of utility slowness. Let's study this problem for two years and then see what the decision looks like then . . . I think in 3-5 years they'll be behind the eight ball.

Just like the ice mfgs.

Southern Company is wasting their time on building nuclear in Georgia (which is behind schedule and billions over budget) and 'clean coal' in Mississippi (which is now being converted to natural gas) They should be embracing solar & batteries.

 

[mongo]

More energy is lost but still claiming cost of $18 kWh.

It reacts quicker than combined cycle gas plant, so quick enough. The world has been able to get by without BES energy leveling services.

The bigger point is if it is $18 per kWh why haven't there been more built? These kinds of projects always triple in price, at the very least, after all is said and done.

And their quoting $435 per kWh for lithium-ion was true about three years ago. While Tesla should get it under $100 soon.

The cost per capacity of $18/kWh doesn't say anything about the cost for output power after constuction.
If the the efficiency number is 42% as stated in a post above, that means a product cost factor of 2.38 time the initial power cost (with 0 operation/ installation cost included). Or 1 kWh out requires 2.38 kWh in. It works if power is close to free when storing or say a third the price, but for areas without a large surplus, it is not as economical as an 85% efficient battery system with a 1.17x cost factor.

 

[RobStark]

Lastly, this only works where there is a cavern of sufficient tightness and size, battery storage can go almost anywhere...

Apparently there are at least 400 or so very good candidates for CAES.

 

[RobStark]

The cost per capacity of $18/kWh doesn't say anything about the cost for output power after constuction.
If the the efficiency number is 42% as stated in a post above, that means a product cost factor of 2.38 time the initial power cost (with 0 operation/ installation cost included). Or 1 kWh out requires 2.38 kWh in. It works if power is close to free when storing or say a third the price, but for areas without a large surplus, it is not as economical as an 85% efficient battery system with a 1.17x cost factor.

They are talking about Texas wind which can be priced below zero overnight.

In the future they are talking about further projects in Wind Alley.

And maybe next to curtailed utility scale solar farms.

But techmaven made some good points about why these are not common place now.

 

[techmaven]

According to Lazard's LCOS 2.0 study, compressed air storage is very cheap. But it isn't easy technology to get nailed down. It really only works at utility scale and with specific geological formations. But I do hope they sort out the issues and we see more of it.

https://www.lazard.com/media/438042/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-v20.pdf

With lithium ion storage costs dropping, that study's $440-$1045 assumption on installed per kWh costs is out of date. So the LCOS may be 30-40% lower than that report which then makes it directly cost competitive with compressed air storage. But if they can fix some of the efficiency issues, then compressed air is still in the mix.

 

[mongo]

Apparently there are at least 400 or so very good candidates for CAES.

Although.. Tesla's largest battery install in the lower 48/ (world based on press release) is located where a natural gas storage facility failed...

 

[RobStark]

Although.. Tesla's largest battery install in the lower 48/ (world based on press release) is located where a natural gas storage facility failed...

Leaks of natural gas made people sick.

Leaks for CAES only makes it less efficient.

Residents in Aliso Canyon CA (where the natural gas leak happened) don't want the return of natural gas storage and will fight it fiercely.

But it can be fixed.

 

[larmor]

What is the market thinking regarding to all the SCs going up and 50k-100k M3s in the next year-- where is the power coming from? What is the market play here?

 

[erthquake]

According to Lazard's LCOS 2.0 study, compressed air storage is very cheap. But it isn't easy technology to get nailed down. It really only works at utility scale and with specific geological formations. But I do hope they sort out the issues and we see more of it.

https://www.lazard.com/media/438042/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-v20.pdf

With lithium ion storage costs dropping, that study's $440-$1045 assumption on installed per kWh costs is out of date. So the LCOS may be 30-40% lower than that report which then makes it directly cost competitive with compressed air storage. But if they can fix some of the efficiency issues, then compressed air is still in the mix.

I suspect there's a high level of risk involved in any one installation. If the geology doesn't behave under load as expected, even by a little bit, then the reduced efficiency might render the plant economically unviable. Think of it like drilling an oil well. Seismic imaging techniques are always improving, but there's always a risk of spending a lot of money to drill a well that doesn't produce and justify the investment. I'd think compressed air would be similar, but on a larger scale.

 

[techmaven]

Leaks of natural gas made people sick.

Leaks for CAES only makes it less efficient.

Residents in Aliso Canyon CA (where the natural gas leak happened) don't want the return of natural gas storage and will fight it fiercely.

But it can be fixed.

Oh, I found a more illustrative resource:

http://www.bine.info/fileadmin/content/Publikationen/Englische_Infos/projekt_0507_engl_internetx.pdf