2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[jhm]

The long range Model 3 is the most affordable car for the range. $44k for 310 miles is $142/mile.

Standard Model 3 is at $159/mile while Model S 75 and 100D come in at $279/mile and $291/mile.

So clearly the Model 3 is a huge leap forward for an affordable EV with ample range.

 

[bdy0627]

My feeling of just watching the event was I wanted to cancel my reservation and get a CPO S.

Until you read the Motor Trend review....Now you want a model 3 again, don't you???

 

[Snapdragon III]

Motortrend

Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 First Drive Review - Motor Trend

I can't think of a way that that review could have been any better. I am super excited to get one!

 

[techmaven]

Car and Driver:

Tesla Model 3 Features, Pricing—and a First Drive!

ArsTechnica article is up:

Pared-down electric experience: Driving one of the first Model 3s off the line

The Verge:

Tesla Model 3 first drive: this is the car that Elon Musk promised

Also, from the Motor Trend article:

Interior air (from subtle vents) is aimed by moving spots around on the display, even dividing the airflow to send it past each ear. There’s a wallet-able security card that plugs in, acting as a valet key.

and:

It’ll take a lot more miles than this to decide if the single off-center screen completely substitutes for a conventionally located gauge cluster, but I’m already adapting to it. At least I can always see the mph display near my right hand position (upper left corner of the screen) versus it being often half-hidden behind spokes.

 

[bdy0627]

With my investor hat on I'm worried about production hell for the rest of this year and maybe Q 1 2018

That is a painful Model X reminder. Hopefully, very different this time around. I expect it will be.

 

[bdy0627]

1. You can order/buy a Model S today, rather than wait for a couple of years for a Model 3.
2. There will be sales to those who can afford an S/X but have held off due to concerns about Tesla's future viability if Model 3 failed or flopped

In a couple of years, particularly once FSD is available, I will be looking to sell my model S and upgrade. It will almost certainly be a model 3 for me at that point. But, that far out, Tesla will be rolling in a big big way and will not be dependent on model S/X like they have been.

 

[Reciprocity]

220 x 237 = ~50KWh pack. If you compare that to the bolt, 60KWh pack and $2000 more for the base model, it means Tesla is going to make money from there base model and the bolt will continue to lose money. 310 x 237 = 74KWh pack. That is if we are to believe the source code from the site that was exposed. Both would be astoundingly positive if true. The cost for the base model 3 pack would be considerably cheaper, say 20-30% cheaper then the bolt. At $44k they are getting a fair premium for the incredible range. And let's not forget at 237Wh/mi the bigger battery will charge 20+% faster then the model S in term of miles of range. For most long trips, it would make the model 3 completive with the S100D even with less total range because it's that much more efficient. To put that into context, both cars hit a Supercharger at 20%. The model 3 will be at 80% in say 20 minutes and the S would only be at 60%. That night only be a few miles advantage for the 3 but it might be enough to allow it to leave 10 minutes early.

Can't wait for the 375D with about 325 miles of range and even more efficiency in long range drives.

Edit: blown away by the 310.. assumed 285 for single motor and just under 300 for duel. Didn't care much about the base model3 range. But did care about the base models battery size. So I'm very happy if it's going to be 50, for cost savings.

 

[22522]

That is a painful Model X reminder. Hopefully, very different this time around. I expect it will be.

I think Elon has anniversary pain from the model X ramp as well.

The way this works is: all the fanfare and context is the same as last time, so your body triggers off the context, even though one small fact is different - this car is designed to be manufactured.

 

[Crowded Mind]

There seems to be a change in how they are describing full self driving for the model 3.

“In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. This feature is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary by jurisdiction.”

There is no mention of model 3 being able to drive somewhere without a driver in the drivers seat, and there is a subtle implication that someone will need to be in the drivers seat. This is bothersome to me. I know we don't have all the details, but subtle wording like this has been very important in the past with Tesla.

 

[schonelucht]

210 x 237 = 50KWh pack. If you compare that to the bolt, 60KWh pack and $2000 more for the base model, it means Tesla is going to make money from there base model and the bolt will continue to lose money. 310 x 237 = 74KWh pack. That is if we are to believe the source code from the site that was exposed. Both would be astoundingly positive if true.

Pack cost of $100/kWh once the Gigafactory is up to speed means GM on the battery upgrade alone is worth $6500 or roughly 15% on expected ASP. If 2/3 of the buyers go for the larger battery it contributes 10% of overall GM. Then there is EAP, likely $3000 GM or 7% of ASP and with an 80% uptake we are looking at another 5,6% overall GM. Other options may account for a few more percent. Tesla is still projecting 20% GM for 2018 on the model 3. Either that's too low or the base model will barely contribute to GM itself.

 

[techmaven]

Pack cost of $100/kWh once the Gigafactory is up to speed means GM on the battery upgrade alone is worth $6500 or roughly 15% on expected ASP. If 2/3 of the buyers go for the larger battery it contributes 10% of overall GM. Then there is EAP, likely $3000 GM or 7% of ASP and with an 80% uptake we are looking at another 5,6% overall GM. Other options may account for a few more percent. Tesla is still projecting 20% GM for 2018 on the model 3. Either that's too low or the base model will barely contribute to GM itself.

Just wanted to note that the long range version has a longer battery warranty (125k versus 100k miles) and a higher speed charger (32A versus 40A) and likely a bigger inverter (5.1 sec 0-60 versus 5.6).

 

[Yuri_G]

The CEO then went on to say the net reservation number was currently "over half a million."

First confirmation of over 500k Model 3 reservations from the Ars article?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Elon's "$42k ASP" is ridiculously low. And this is before dual motors and performance versions are out. As a customer, I'm disappointed in that, but as a shareholder it is likely good news. Maybe he was referring to $42k as the ASP for only the RWD standard pack size or something.

 

[sub]

I figured 50-55k for what I want, looks like 59k. I can live with that. Glad the higher optioned cars are going first, may move me up in line (reserved at store before reveal).

 

[myusername]

i went out for some drinks tonight... came back... decided to spin up the "reveal" videos... and so far... about 15 minutes in... i think i might hang myself with my own vomit. this is ridiculous.

 

[RobStark]

Are Europeans happy with the width at 72.8"?

4.5 " or 11.43 cm narrower than the Model S. I was guessing 3" narrower.

It seems a big gripe from Europeans was that Tesla vehicles were just too wide for European roads.

A 2017 BMW 3 Series is 71.3" and a 2017 BMW 5 Series is 73.5".

 

[Snapdragon III]

If Elon confirmed that they had over 500k reservations, and that if you order a 3 now, you will get it around the end of next year. Doesn't that imply that they are planning on hitting 10k a week much earlier in 2018 than is generally assumed? I haven't modeled it out or anything, but my wild guess is they would have to hit 10k/week around the end of Q1 to be able to hit over 500k cumulative by the end of 2018. Am I missing something?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Elon's "$42k ASP" is ridiculously low. And this is before dual motors and performance versions are out. As a customer, I'm disappointed in that, but as a shareholder it is likely good news. Maybe he was referring to $42k as the ASP for only the RWD standard pack size or something.

Yeah, this is looking good for shareholders.

Margins should be pretty awesome, at least through 2018. At that point they could redo the pricing to make it more affordable.

 

[tinm]

Just wanted to note that the long range version has a longer battery warranty (125k versus 100k miles) and a higher speed charger (32A versus 40A) and likely a bigger inverter (5.1 sec 0-60 versus 5.6).

Still consider this battery warranty a shocker. It's like they have nowhere near the level of confidence in the 3 battery that they have in the S/X battery. Why?

 

[RobStark]

Still consider this battery warranty a shocker. It's like they have nowhere near the level of confidence in the 3 battery that they have in the S/X battery. Why?

They no longer feel they have unproven technology from an unproven company that requires much more warranty than the competition. Just needs to be competitive.