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You forgot :
- they already had to recall early Model 3 production due to failures in the batteries
Still waiting on someone to pry open a Powerwall 2 and give us a close up look @wk057 -style
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
What Elon actually said was that eventually, something like alien dreadnaught V 3, that humans won't be able to work fast enough to be on the line.
The current line is supposed to be V 0.5 (requires some humans).
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Bad welds. Much different than bad batteries.
Mike Smith
Active Member
If you use number of cars produced as the metric for success of the early Model 3 ramp, then all you are looking at is the current pace of the slowest bottleneck (without knowing how easy it will be to correct), and progress or lack thereof being made everywhere else on the line is ignored. This makes no sense.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ulmo
Active Member
No thanks. I'll also wait for someone else to do it.
Ulmo
Active Member
DuckDuckGo found:
Tesla attempts Model 3 production ramp up after working through early manufacturing problems
That's ~3 and ~2 months ago, respectively. The first batch was less than a month from super-optimistic-unrealistic start of production day, and the second batch less than 2 months from that same unrealistic start of production day.
We are now 100 days since July 1st, the optimistic unrealistic internal production start deadline:
Tesla sets July 1st 2017 as deadline for Model 3 parts with suppliers and internally
My view is that things are proceeding about right, not too slow and not too fast. Anything else and I'd be wondering who is lying or messing up.
Last edited:
Pomerantz Law Firm investigates claims on behalf of investors of Tesla. Something about the model 3 line not being active when Elon said it was.
SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Tesla, Inc. - TSLA
SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Tesla, Inc. - TSLA
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I believe that a lot of us would benefit from a market through understanding of battery technology. I think the following post from an ebike forum in 2007 does an excellent job of explaining the basics (c-rate etc.). Note: NMC and NCA had not been invented yet. Also the 26650 cells Gary was using had less than half the energy density of Tesla's current 2170 cells.
Endless-sphere.com • View topic - The care and feeding of a123-based packs...
I decided to start this thread to share my experiences with a123-based packs, in terms of what is really required to get the most out of the cells, how to make packs, how to charge/balance them and how to protect them in use.
The a123-M1 cells were developed by an MIT-spinoff called a123Systems. They use the same LiFePO4 chemistry as many of the emerging Chinese variants, which is inherently much safer than any of the Cobalt /or Maganese-based Lithium cells. What sets the a123-M1 cells apart is their proprietary use of nanotechnology in the electrode design. This allows these cells to be discharged at very high rates, and also allows them to be charged at very high rates as well, mainly due to a very high "C" rating, and low internal resistance. They are also extremely safe. Unlike othre chemistries, these will not explode if you over-charge or over discharge the cells.
Each cell has a totally usable capacity of 2.3Ah, a nominal voltage of 3.3V per cell and a fully-charged voltage of 3.65V per cell. They are rated for 30C continuous discharge (70A) and over 50C (120A) for up to 10 second "bursts". Most of the Chinese LiFe cells have max discharge rates around 2-3C. What that means is that in order to pull 40-50A out of them, you need packs that are 20Ah, or better. With a123 cells, you could easily pull 40-50A out of a "single-p" 2.3Ah pack. In practical terms, though, you won't get much range on 2.3Ah, but the point is that it doesn't have to be 20Ah. I think 90% of the users out there don't need more than 10Ah, 90% of the time.
When using a123 cells paralleled together, in order to get higher capacities, this also raises the "C" rating even further. In a 4p/9.2Ah configuration, the continuous discharge rating goes up to 280A and the burst current rating to a whopping 480A.
This flattens out the discharge "curve" even more. The power delivered is very consistant, all the way up to the end of the capacity, and then it drops off quickly. With every other type of battery I've tried, you can "feel" the performance under load drop as you get closer to the end of the capacity. With these, the power pretty much feels the same 10 seconds from the end as it does in the beginning. If the cells in the pack are well balanced, power at the end will drop so fast, you will think you blew a fuse. Therein lies the only real "weakness" with using a123 cells in an EV application. The only way I'v found to kill these things is by over-discharging. This, of course, is applicable to all Lithium-based batteries, but it is actually easier to do with a123-based packs, due to the fact you don't get any notice that the end of capacity is near.
You can get bare a123-M1 cells directly from the manufacturer in development kits, but these are quite expensive at about $18 a cell. Many in the RC world, including myself, have tried to get a123Systems to sell us bare cells at some sort of reasonable price, but to no avail. The best I was able to do was to get them down to about $12 a cell, but that was for a quantity of 50,000. These cells were originally developed for Black and Decker's DeWalt brand pro line of 36V power tools. DeWalt bought 10 million a123-M1 cells last year, so even if you added up the total potential number of cells used in the RC and ebike/scooter applications, it would be a statistically miniscule portion of DeWalt's production run.
DeWalt uses 10 M1 cells in each 36V power pack. I'm not sure why they call them 36V because the nominal voltage per cell is 3.3V. The only time this pack is anywhere close to 36V is fresh off the charger. Anyway, DeWalt sells these packs retail at about $160 each. They also include them, however, as part of combo packages where they will have a couple of power tools and maybe a light, along with two of these packs and a charger, at quite a cost savings over the individually priced items. There are a number of ebay power tool dealers who will break these combo packs apart and sell the pieces separately, including the packs. What this means is that you can buy these 10-cell DeWalt packs off eBay for about $90-$100, shipped. That makes the per cell cost of about $10, much more reasonable. To find these , just do a search on eBay for DeWalt 36V DC9360 and you should get a list of what's currently available.
Building, charging and balancing packs...
Inside the DeWalt packs the 10 cells are connected together in series via welded tabs. The 10-cell bundle is held in place with a pair of molded plastic end caps that also contain some springloaded wires that are used for individual cell moitoring and balancing. There is an embedded battery management system (BMS) that is part of the top half of the case. In order to get at the cells you need to use a Torx T-10 security tool to remove 7 screws that hold the top half of the case to the bottom portion.
<Snip> <snip>
If anyone has an questions please let me know.
Endless-sphere.com • View topic - The care and feeding of a123-based packs...
I decided to start this thread to share my experiences with a123-based packs, in terms of what is really required to get the most out of the cells, how to make packs, how to charge/balance them and how to protect them in use.
The a123-M1 cells were developed by an MIT-spinoff called a123Systems. They use the same LiFePO4 chemistry as many of the emerging Chinese variants, which is inherently much safer than any of the Cobalt /or Maganese-based Lithium cells. What sets the a123-M1 cells apart is their proprietary use of nanotechnology in the electrode design. This allows these cells to be discharged at very high rates, and also allows them to be charged at very high rates as well, mainly due to a very high "C" rating, and low internal resistance. They are also extremely safe. Unlike othre chemistries, these will not explode if you over-charge or over discharge the cells.
Each cell has a totally usable capacity of 2.3Ah, a nominal voltage of 3.3V per cell and a fully-charged voltage of 3.65V per cell. They are rated for 30C continuous discharge (70A) and over 50C (120A) for up to 10 second "bursts". Most of the Chinese LiFe cells have max discharge rates around 2-3C. What that means is that in order to pull 40-50A out of them, you need packs that are 20Ah, or better. With a123 cells, you could easily pull 40-50A out of a "single-p" 2.3Ah pack. In practical terms, though, you won't get much range on 2.3Ah, but the point is that it doesn't have to be 20Ah. I think 90% of the users out there don't need more than 10Ah, 90% of the time.
When using a123 cells paralleled together, in order to get higher capacities, this also raises the "C" rating even further. In a 4p/9.2Ah configuration, the continuous discharge rating goes up to 280A and the burst current rating to a whopping 480A.
You can get bare a123-M1 cells directly from the manufacturer in development kits, but these are quite expensive at about $18 a cell. Many in the RC world, including myself, have tried to get a123Systems to sell us bare cells at some sort of reasonable price, but to no avail. The best I was able to do was to get them down to about $12 a cell, but that was for a quantity of 50,000. These cells were originally developed for Black and Decker's DeWalt brand pro line of 36V power tools. DeWalt bought 10 million a123-M1 cells last year, so even if you added up the total potential number of cells used in the RC and ebike/scooter applications, it would be a statistically miniscule portion of DeWalt's production run.
DeWalt uses 10 M1 cells in each 36V power pack. I'm not sure why they call them 36V because the nominal voltage per cell is 3.3V. The only time this pack is anywhere close to 36V is fresh off the charger. Anyway, DeWalt sells these packs retail at about $160 each. They also include them, however, as part of combo packages where they will have a couple of power tools and maybe a light, along with two of these packs and a charger, at quite a cost savings over the individually priced items. There are a number of ebay power tool dealers who will break these combo packs apart and sell the pieces separately, including the packs. What this means is that you can buy these 10-cell DeWalt packs off eBay for about $90-$100, shipped. That makes the per cell cost of about $10, much more reasonable. To find these , just do a search on eBay for DeWalt 36V DC9360 and you should get a list of what's currently available.
Building, charging and balancing packs...
Inside the DeWalt packs the 10 cells are connected together in series via welded tabs. The 10-cell bundle is held in place with a pair of molded plastic end caps that also contain some springloaded wires that are used for individual cell moitoring and balancing. There is an embedded battery management system (BMS) that is part of the top half of the case. In order to get at the cells you need to use a Torx T-10 security tool to remove 7 screws that hold the top half of the case to the bottom portion.
<Snip> <snip>
If anyone has an questions please let me know.
Ulmo
Active Member
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion shows that they have already made hundreds of Model 3's. The notion Tesla isn't using the production line, the very thing Tesla wants to make work fast for the entire existence of the company, is just retarded. Of course, while Tesla debugs particular steps, anything is possible for certain little tests and refinements, but overall, obviously, the production line is being used. How could it not be? The very idea that it isn't being used is a criminal lie type of fear uncertainty and doubt, and that makes Pomegranate law firm a bunch of criminals.
bdy0627
Active Member
It sure would be fun to file a class action lawsuit AGAINST Pomegranate on behalf of investors for stock manipulation with outrageous claims. Might be a few short term option traders interested in seeing Pomegranate in court on the other side of the room.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Morgan Stanley Keeps Their Hold Rating on Tesla Motors - Analyst Ratings
Price target raised $62. This will be big news tomorrow. Adam Jonas is the most widely followed Tesla analyst.
Price target raised $62. This will be big news tomorrow. Adam Jonas is the most widely followed Tesla analyst.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Even if this turns out true, $340 is a good buying opportunity, because (per my estimate) the stock is priced for 100k to 150k Model 3's in 2018.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Update: Tesla says that they are installing more systems, but the installations are still only for company employees – much like Model 3 deliveries. A ramp up is expected later this year.
As the EPA is gutted and Clean Power regulation is reversed
For those too young to recall where we’ve been
Vintage photos taken by the EPA reveal what America looked like before pollution was regulated
For those too young to recall where we’ve been
Vintage photos taken by the EPA reveal what America looked like before pollution was regulated
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