2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ValueAnalyst]

Model3 offers day one advantage vs. 3 series et. al.

Edit: S&X also for that matter.

S/X/3 are comparably priced to ICE, but in these segments, purchase price comprises the majority of TCO. Fuel cost is secondary consideration.

In the Class 8 market, fuel/maintenance/driver cost is the vast majority of 10-year TCO, so Tesla Semi absolutely dominates ICE.

 

[neroden]

this whole time people have been comparing Tesla to Apple... what if Tesla is Blackberry...

Myusername: In that case, somewhere around 2022 or later, maybe we sell our Tesla stock. Blackberry was a highly profitable stock trade from 2003 to 2007, you know? It's obvious there is no "Tesla killer" in the *near* future. You can be sure we'll keep our eyes on it for the *far* future.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Myusername: In that case, somewhere around 2022 or later, maybe we sell our Tesla stock. Blackberry was a highly profitable stock trade from 2003 to 2007, you know? It's obvious there is no "Tesla killer" in the *near* future. You can be sure we'll keep our eyes on it for the *far* future.

If history repeats itself, in 2021 Tesla will have the next round of jaw dropping product coming (for real), and everyone will have forgotten how many plug-in models that VW/Ford/BMW/MBZ promised in 2017 to bring to market by 2020.

 

[neroden]

Until they aren't. In the same way that steam ships were the most efficient ways to deliver people across an ocean, or horses were the quickest way in to town.

Handwaving. Show me the technology, as Musk says about supposedly disruptive battery designs (which are more likely to eventuate).

Trains (coupled vehicles on tracks) are the most efficient period, and it is based on physics first principles, and I've explained it before so I won't explain it again. And, yes, you can packet-switch them at a car level, and it's already done routinely in Europe (sigh). More importantly, they're packet-switched at an *individual person* level, which you CANNOT do with privately owned cars (the cars always end up in the wrong place).

Maybe someday sensor electronics will be cheap and reliable enough that "virtual coupling" will be cheaper than mechanical coupling. We're not even close.

I should make it clear that US trains are ripe for disruption, full of "worst practices"; Tesla could replace and undercut the entire US train industry at all levels with best-practices trains (fully automatic operation, fully automatic coupling, mass produced, battery-powered) which would be much cheaper than existing US trains -- if they don't fool around with reinventing-the-wheel silliness. Hopefully they will.

is the analogy perfect? No.

It's a truly crap analogy for your intention, actually -- used correctly, the analogy demonstrates the superiority of trains. Hilarious.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Handwaving. Show me the technology, as Musk says about supposedly disruptive battery designs (which are more likely to eventuate).

Trains (coupled vehicles on tracks) are the most efficient period, and it is based on physics first principles, and I've explained it before so I won't explain it again. And, yes, you can packet-switch them at a car level, and it's already done routinely in Europe (sigh). More importantly, they're packet-switched at an *individual person* level, which you CANNOT do with privately owned cars (the cars always end up in the wrong place).

Maybe someday sensor electronics will be cheap and reliable enough that "virtual coupling" will be cheaper than mechanical coupling. We're not even close.

I should make it clear that US trains are ripe for disruption, full of "worst practices"; Tesla could replace and undercut the entire US train industry at all levels with best-practices trains which would be much cheaper than existing US trains -- if they don't fool around with reinventing-the-wheel silliness. Hopefully they will.

It's a truly crap analogy for your intention, actually -- used correctly, the analogy demonstrates the superiority of trains. Hilarious.

Here is a mental model I've been playing with, comparing transportation to auto-assembly:

The speed of trains is throttled by human getting themselves on and off the train. The loading/unloading of passengers happens in 1-D, everyone queue up in the isle and wait for the person in front of them to move. The faster the train goes, the more time the train spend relatively at the station, waiting to the loading/unloading. This to me is your manual "packet switching".

Now imagine a human is put into a pod with safety strap, then a robot can load this pod into a carrier, at the "strobe light" speed that Elon described in terms of car assembly line. Then imagine this loading/unloading happen in 3-D, like Alien Dreadnought. Now you've automated the "packet switching".

Of course this kind of approach doesn't necessarily require a car, pods can be loaded into trains just the same. But add another level, what if the pods are themselves mobile, and can be used to complete last-mile movement for smaller # of people to and from the trains? One problem with trains is that most people don't always go to exactly the same place. A smaller pods solves that.

Then extending on that, if the pods are themselves mobile, then why wait to load them onto trains at all? What if you treat the whole track as the train, and the "automated packet switching" isn't happening in terms of putting pods onto stationary trains, but in terms of shoving the pods down the track and "multiplex" them at "strobe light" speed?

 

[scaesare]

Handwaving. Show me the technology, as Musk says about supposedly disruptive battery designs (which are more likely to eventuate).

Clearly you are missing (ignoring?) the future disruptive technologies aspect of my post.

Hint: read the paragraph that started with: "Do all of the necessary components for a fully distributed "packetized" human transportation system exist today? No."

Trains (coupled vehicles on tracks) are the most efficient period, and it is based on physics first principles, and I've explained it before so I won't explain it again.

On the contrary. I've read your posts on trains vs. Hyperloop, the issues with tunnel boring, etc... and just about all of them are based on the premise of what's possibile with current approaches... and very little (if any) is based on first principles/physiscs applications.

And, yes, you can packet-switch them at a car level, and it's already done routinely in Europe (sigh). More importantly, they're packet-switched at an *individual person* level, which you CANNOT do with privately owned cars (the cars always end up in the wrong place).

And there may be a role for train cars loaded with individual car pods. But to ignore the time/effort required to recouple a train car vs the potential for an automated system to steer individual car sleds at high speed is to ignore the entire point I'm making.[/quote]

Maybe someday sensor electronics will be cheap and reliable enough that "virtual coupling" will be cheaper than mechanical coupling. We're not even close.

Ah... we are finally getting to the crux of the matter: the need to look at what may be possible, not what today is possible. And the resultant danger in stating absolutes such as "You can't get the volume of people-moving without trains. They are the high-volume solution."

And some of those future possibilities may be much sooner or more rapid than you think. Ask those buggy whip folks.

I should make it clear that US trains are ripe for disruption, full of "worst practices"; Tesla could replace and undercut the entire US train industry at all levels with best-practices trains (fully automatic operation, fully automatic coupling, mass produced, battery-powered) which would be much cheaper than existing US trains -- if they don't fool around with reinventing-the-wheel silliness. Hopefully they will.

​

There's very likely room for more efficient trains int he ultimate solution. That doesn't mean there's not also other solutions.. or that hey may be different parts of an overall puzzle.

(more of your favorite analogy: even when packet switching happened within the core, a number of the existing circuit-switched lines remained... heck many homes still have copper pairs today)

They are the high-volume solution.It's a truly crap analogy for your intention, actually -- used correctly, the analogy demonstrates the superiority of trains. Hilarious.

​

I'm glad to see the holidays have made your normally cheery disposition even moreso.

Given your apparent lack of understanding of the scope and future aspect of what I'm proposing, and instead intentness on only considering today's technology, I can understand why you that way. That's why I'm trying to help you to expand your horizons.

(ON EDIT: Just saw the subsequent moderator post. No more responses from me here on this unless it gets carved off to a new thread)

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:
There is enough interest in trains that you are welcome to create your own thread devoted exclusively to that discussion. Every time the t-word is brought up here it instantly derails all investment-thread connection.
Therefore, either switch tracks and create such a specific thread, or each further post will be shunted either to Snippy...or simply deleted.

 

[aubreymcfato]

And we have a new record!
223 (and counting!) cars sold today in Norway. Best day ever.
Tesla Registration Stats

 

[DragonWatch]

This car by NIO, similar to attacks on Tesla Semi, lack specifics NIO: This Chinese startup's electric SUV is a lot cheaper than Tesla's Also, the design is lacking in aerodynamics 101:-( The cost of sending a van because you ran out of gas (electricity) would exceed the wtfo meter:-( Are these cars compatible with Tesla SCs? Where are you going to charge them? Same boat GM and the rest of them are in. . . Cool design, but lacks ~ everything else.

 

[SteveG3]

talk about a headline falsehood/not matching the content of the article

Tesla was under SEC investigation for 3 years over Model 3 sales

hmm... Model 3 wasn’t even for sale 3 years ago.

“article” is just a vehicle to repeat this speculation (sincere or not) again,

“Yet Probes Reporter says the SEC blocked it from accessing other records on Tesla on law enforcement grounds, which it says suggests "there is at least one other unresolved SEC probe" into Tesla.”

 

[22522]

MODERATOR:
There is enough interest in trains that you are welcome to create your own thread devoted exclusively to that discussion. Every time the t-word is brought up here it instantly derails all investment-thread connection.
Therefore, either switch tracks and create such a specific thread, or each further post will be shunted either to Snippy...or simply deleted.

Specific thread created, with simple minded statement of differentiation being the termination and loading at the city/congested end of the route.

MODERATOR: Link here - Trains, Tesla and People Moving for Workday Commutes

 

[Lessmog]

Not trying to be snippy, but I know there are members in WA state who may be affected by the "recent traffic accident" on the new line between Tacoma and Olympia, where derailed rolling stock dropped onto I-5 killing multiple persons.

Hope everyone here is OK, OK?

 

[Ugliest1]

I disagree that whoever you’re talking to is an engineer. No engineers I know would bet against Elon.

I recall a math prof (40 years ago) suddenly stopping in the middle of creating a long and complicated proof on the blackboard, that none of us could understand anyway. Then he turned around and said, “Sometimes, I think about all the engineers I put through my math classes. And now, whenever I come to a bridge, I stop.”

(He said it, I didn’t!)

 

[DragonWatch]

I recall a math prof (40 years ago) suddenly stopping in the middle of creating a long and complicated proof on the blackboard, that none of us could understand anyway. Then he turned around and said, “Sometimes, I think about all the engineers I put through my math classes. And now, whenever I come to a bridge, I stop.”

(He said it, I didn’t!)

Something caused the train to derail:-( My daughter and granddaughter went to Tacoma from Olympia and made their doctors appointment safely. Now they begin the very long alternate route home There are no easy alternative routes because, the accident was just south of Fort Lewis, and Airbase McCord is north of Lewis with a boundary line between them. Then there is Puget Sound on the other side. Any roads to the east of Lewis/McChord are surface two opposing lanes. So no easy way around:-(

This was a new Cascade passenger train/route. The tracks/bridge have been there for years. Cause is still unknown.

 

[bdy0627]

Just checked the Model 3 VIN tracker site and it shows 2,132. Vin-tracker | track Model 3 Vins that are registered
After last week's photos of Model 3 cars stacking up in a few lots, it seems a little quiet since then. I thought we would keep hearing about growing numbers through this week. Has anyone seen other M3 news from the last few days?

 

[dc_h]

Regarding S/X deliveries: At 262 today and 1612 for the month for Norway. Should be record day, month and quarter. Going into Dec' Europe count was 4200, Norway alone puts that over 7200. Only 1800 for the rest of Europe to hit 9000, so 10,000 for Europe seems very possible. If China is still buying cars, the US would only need to sell about 10-12,000 cars to have record deliveries.
Looking forward to seeing some pop on the Model 3 VIN's, if production is truly ramping, cash flow could be much better than expected this quarter -- especially adding the Roadster and Semi deposits.

 

[hobbes]

And we have a new record!
223 (and counting!) cars sold today in Norway. Best day ever.
Tesla Registration Stats

Now 262!!!

 

[jbcarioca]

Until they aren't. In the same way that steam ships were the most efficient ways to deliver people across an ocean, or horses were the quickest way in to town.

Disruptive technologies have a way of changing the landscape.




...
Think about it in terms of something other than the traditional transportation "box". This is a lot like the move from circuit-switched communications infrastructure to packet switched.

...
Do all of the necessary components for a fully distributed "packetized" human transportation system exist today? No. But things like cheaper alternatives to high-speed rail such as hyperloop, advancements in underground boring, BFR-style trips, automated driving/piloting systems and the like, could very well be the initial sparks in developing that sort of infrastructure. This is the same way that the first DARPA IMP packet routers and the initial DAPANET network paved the way for the internet

is the analogy perfect? No. But my point is: never say never. It may not seem possible with what you know today, but try not to let it hamper your view of what may be possible tomorrow. Otherwise we should be talking about who makes the finer buggy whip.

(PS- I fully support this topic being spun off to it's own thread)

A physicist friend of mine has said "it's all about fluid dynamics". Solving the transportation equation can be done with several different models. Trains, planes and busses creat their own queuing and congestion issues. Single occupant cars yet another. There are so many efficiency tradeoffs that accurate and precise evaluation of energy and time use simply are not ever simple.

With clear paradigm movements it seems to me the mix will be dramatically different within the next decade, almost everywhere, but we'll still have a mixture that includes the modes of today. they'll have very different economics.

We are really lucky to be here as this is happening.

Tesla will be one winner. at least I am betting it will be.

 

[DragonWatch]

Regarding S/X deliveries: At 262 today and 1612 for the month for Norway. Should be record day, month and quarter. Going into Dec' Europe count was 4200, Norway alone puts that over 7200. Only 1800 for the rest of Europe to hit 9000, so 10,000 for Europe seems very possible. If China is still buying cars, the US would only need to sell about 10-12,000 cars to have record deliveries.
Looking forward to seeing some pop on the Model 3 VIN's, if production is truly ramping, cash flow could be much better than expected this quarter -- especially adding the Roadster and Semi deposits.

I have been searching the web, especially Tesla, for new or used Ss & Xs for days now and there are literally none available. There were three Friday evening and by this morning there was two, but they are different from the original set. That works if you want an S, but no luck on the X side. Absolutely no used/reconditioned!

I am seeing green, and it is not the forest here in the northwest Anyone care to order an S or X today to see if they can receive it midnight the 31st of December. Put that nice tax incentive in your pocket?

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this afternoon: Tesla Semi test program partner says that performance specs are for real