2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Any basis for that number? SpaceX has had one on pad failure which has been resolved. The big unknown is the interaction of 27 engines firing at once. Computer monitoring will allow shutdown if the vibration gets too high during static testing.

The concern isn't just RUD during launch, but more importantly during max-q (maximum aerodynamic pressure), which is about 1 minute into the flight. That's when the stresses on the rocket are greatest.

 

[dc_h]

2 things:
first off can we end this f’ing rocket discussion. There’s a spacex thread;
Second, the vin’s and reported orders for this weekend and next week are increasing rapidly. Seems like Tesla intends on delivering as many or more of the seen cars in Fremont over the next week as possible. Seems like 1500 is likely now and maybe more.

 

[ruralectric]

Well, regardless of how yall feel about it, here's a link with a few more shots of the Roadster.

Here's Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster ready for its Mars-bound voyage

Personally, I think it's f*n awesome.

 

[Mike Smith]

2 things:
first off can we end this f’ing rocket discussion. There’s a spacex thread;
Second, the vin’s and reported orders for this weekend and next week are increasing rapidly. Seems like Tesla intends on delivering as many or more of the seen cars in Fremont over the next week as possible. Seems like 1500 is likely now and maybe more.

Don't forget they announce the number of cars produced as well - that will be the more important (and impressive) number for Model 3.

 

[Mike Smith]

I'm seeing lots of reports of new invitations to configure, so there's definitely a new batch of invites going out. Three straight weeks of batches of 5,000 invites. I'm guessing by next week for sure they'll be producing at least 2,000/wk run rate (if not now). I say 5,000+ Model 3s produced in Q4, and I don't think the market is expecting that at all.

 

[geneclean55]

How do we know it is 5000 invites per batch?

 

[Mike Smith]

How do we know it is 5000 invites per batch?

Is Tesla Model 3 Production Gliding Into 5,000 Cars A Week? | CleanTechnica
'There have now been multiple claims that Tesla staff members are telling Tesla customers that Tesla is sending out Model 3 configuration invites to batches of 5,000 at a time.'

 

[MP3Mike]

Not to rain on everyone's parade, but this this has a greater then 50% chance of uncontrolled rapid disassembly on the launch pad.

That would be RUD: "Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly".

 

[MP3Mike]

Is Tesla Model 3 Production Gliding Into 5,000 Cars A Week? | CleanTechnica
'There have now been multiple claims that Tesla staff members are telling Tesla customers that Tesla is sending out Model 3 configuration invites to batches of 5,000 at a time.'

But even so the take rate is going to be less than 100%. The take rate is probably closer to 50%, so that would put the build rate at close to ~2,500/week.

My plan is to wait for AWD, but I may not end up having the fortitude to delay pulling the trigger.

 

[ggr]

The first Roadster and Elon's personal car not valuable or important?

It's not the first one; he is keeping VP1, which is black. This was his "daily driver" roadster. I believe it's VIN 1010.

 

[Mike Smith]

But even so the take rate is going to be less than 100%. The take rate is probably closer to 50%, so that would put the build rate at close to ~2,500/week.

My plan is to wait for AWD, but I may not end up having the fortitude to delay pulling the trigger.

In my original post I suggested 2,000, but I was trying to be conservative. I agree it could be 2,500

 

[SunCatcher]

Speaking of SpaceX...

Spectacular evening view of Iridium launch from Southern California this evening!

Hopefully the 2018 launch of TSLA SP, following M3 ramp, will be equally phantasmagoric.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Speaking of SpaceX...

Spectacular evening view of Iridium launch from Southern California this evening!

Hopefully the 2018 launch of TSLA SP, following M3 ramp, will be equally phantasmagoric.

This video so much better than the official SpaceX one. All you see is black background and white cone. Lol.

Anyone know Why didn’t they recover the first stage?

 

[skitown]

This video so much better than the official SpaceX one. All you see is black background and white cone. Lol.

Anyone know Why didn’t they recover the first stage?

Check out this thread for discussion/theories as to why... SpaceX F9 - 5th Reuse - Iridium Next 31-40 - SLC-4E

 

[sundaymorning]

Invites are definitely going out, see attachment.

 

[Reciprocity]

Any basis for that number? SpaceX has had one on pad failure which has been resolved. The big unknown is the interaction of 27 engines firing at once. Computer monitoring will allow shutdown if the vibration gets too high during static testing.

Elon musk is my source. We are Twitter friends. Like best Twitter friends really. He sent me his cell phone number yesterday.

 

[Zaxxon]

Any basis for that number? SpaceX has had one on pad failure which has been resolved. The big unknown is the interaction of 27 engines firing at once. Computer monitoring will allow shutdown if the vibration gets too high during static testing.

I don't have a link handy at 2 am, but Elon said something along the lines of the initial launch would be a success if it makes it off the pad. They are definitely keeping expectations low for the debut launch.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In my original post I suggested 2,000, but I was trying to be conservative. I agree it could be 2,500

It's not there yet. we haven't seen enough registrations or vin sightings for 2,5k per week. Last i checked the registrations were around 4k and vin sightings were mid 2ks.

Can't wait to get to 2.5kpw but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.

 

[Gerardf]

I am puzzled by all the PR around next gen solid state cells. Companies like Toyota and Bosch in formal announcements are more or less implying they are betting their future existence on solid state cells, and to be waiting for that to be mass production ready.

Are the ICE companies only buying time ? Or is there a real breakthrough and feel they should not invest in current li-ion production as it might be obsolete by the time their Li-ion GigaFactories are ready ?

At the same time we see unexpected, even puzzling, specifications from Tesla on the Semi and the new Roadster.

Note that everybody (except Tesla) seems to be pointing to a 2020-2022 timeframe, and I bet that is a somewhat optimistic timeline compared to their internal number.

I was extremely sceptical, we heard about so many breakthroughs, but now I slowly start to warm up to the idea that chances are that there is really something going on. What would this mean for Tesla ?

IMHO such breakthrough being real will not hurt Tesla, but is a BIG opportunity. Not only it would mean total game over for ICE (if not already), but it already seems to result in the others to delaying their plans until 2022 thus giving Tesla even 5 more years to grow > 50% / year and become comparable in size to the big ICE companies before 2022.

And in case the Semi and roadster are indeed already early prototypes using a new technology, well, that would be total disaster for big ICE.

Actually that could be dangerous to some economies, as this could result in a very sudden massive buyers strike delaying purchase of ICE cars waiting for new tech BEV’s. It will not be that dramatic for Li-ion based BEV’s, as these can relatively easy be upgraded by a battery exchange. But Tesla will not be able to scale up fast enough.

In that case I hope there is some secret masterplan ready to build for many Giga- car/battery factories using the money that will be thrown to Tesla to build BEV’s at ludicrous speed.

Edit: maybe this deserves its own investment thread.

 

[avoigt]

Something to enjoy...