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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Realistically, like many Californians most Tesla Fremont employees would need to commute.
Walking or biking to work from a nice neighborhood is for the privileged few.
Oakland CA $500k average home price or Tracy CA $410k average home price.
More than doable for skilled Tesla Fremont employees.
Housing prices in California must be a trip. A number of years ago my wife looked into some jobs in SoCal and they told her she'd have an hour+ commute because we wouldn't be able to live near the hospital she'd be working at. I don't remember where it was but that was crazy. And she's a cardiologist so it's not like she'd be making minimum wage.
Buy high and sell low. That is the mantra of this fourm.
The irony is, that without the disagree and agree buttons, the opinions her would be close to accurate.
Seems like an ideal time to sell and buy back at 180. But the stock will never hit 180 again, right? No chance it could hit 160 by spring? There is nothing that could make TSLA worth less than Ford in market cap.
The irony is, that without the disagree and agree buttons, the opinions her would be close to accurate.
Seems like an ideal time to sell and buy back at 180. But the stock will never hit 180 again, right? No chance it could hit 160 by spring? There is nothing that could make TSLA worth less than Ford in market cap.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Back in 2013 as the stock shot up from $30 to $78, I sold a few options and switched to puts, thinking it'll likely go back down again. I cave and sold those puts at $92, a loss.... Good thing I held onto the majority of my calls. Lesson learned, better to hold onto this train then play the "in-n-out" game. Had I listened to some "rational" thinkers on this board, I would've never been this rich.
That thinking assumes that everything that has happened,, was guaranteed to happen.
The odds of Tesla making good on that stock bet in 2013 were probably 4 to 1. It took a whole lot of luck, a whole bunch of different people and a whole lot of macro forces to make that bet pay off.
The odds of TSLA stock taking off today, compared to settling into a more reasonable level is probably 4 to 1.
Assuming that because they had done it before, means they will do it again is the "hot hands fallacy". Not a good gambling strategy and definitely not a god investing strategy
Oh no I agree the forces that be are irrationally bullish right now. I'll be back in at a later time expecting another larger dip. How low will it go? 180? 205? 220? No one knows, maybe it will never go below 260 again? I love tesla but at this moment I don't agree with the current valuation. Maybe I'm wrong but I'm going to stick to what I believe.
Yuri_G
Member
Put your money where your keyboard is and sell your shares/short the stock. Should be a slam dunk.
Krugerrand
Meow
If God were investing for me I would need no better strategy.
Doesn't God help those who help themselves?
Note the closing paragraph in a post written nearly four years ago after I had been with TMC for a week: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
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Yeah, what's happened is that super-restrictive zoning has meant that nobody's allowed to build tall buildings. As the population grows massively, you can see the results -- housing prices are through the roof.
Legalize skyscrapers and townhouses everywhere and the pressure would be off in about 5 years.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Your post was one that I remembered till this day, and took as good balanced advice. I remembered you stating that you knew some of the greatest "short term" players in the market, but in the end, their best short term trades nearly equaled to amateur "long-term" holders. This really hit home for me, why should I bother stressing over when to buy/sell/rebuy when my gains long-term will be equally successful as the "pros" who trade on the daily, short-term? It's just not worth my time and stress... after having been here for several years, I can attest that the long-term hold strategy is more my style and has paid off handsomely. While I look back at more seasoned traders such as "sleepyhead" who obviously is no longer here, what a bummer.
Thanks Curt and others for your advice, it changed my life in ways I never imagined.
stock is undervalued. it's moving out of the level of being undervalued (over 25%) which I recommend buying. now I advise holding. I surely agree there will be selloffs in the future. I just don't know if it will be from here to $230, or $190, or from $360 to $310.
what to do? for me, hold core position. if the next sell off is to $220, I start picking up trading shares there (continuing to buy in increments spread over the next potential ~25% of continuing selloff, with some dry powder for buying if an off the charts event like the '08 financial crisis happens) and sell them when the stock price moves back in the direction of fair value. if the next sell off is $360 to $310, I'm not sitting here thinking, "why did I ever get rid of my core position, it pains me to even look at the stock." (fwiw, do I buy trading shares at $310? if $310 is more than 30% below fair value when it happens yes, if not (as is the case today), no).
I've done this with Tesla since getting in in 2012, as I did it for the other individual stock I've owned this century, Celgene. I've never lost money in over 50 trades with Tesla with this strategy. "Worst" that's happened was having to sit with trading shares for about 8 months when I bought around $225 in April of last year, and only recently sold those trading shares. I'd tell you the stats on my Celgene trading, but no one would believe me. MOST IMPORTANTLY, I held my core shares every day from buying Celgene in 1999 to the day I got out in 2007, and TSLA core shares every day since accumulating core position in 2012. none of the days each of these stocks has jumped 5-10%, or month's they've jumped 20-30% was I ever one share short of my full core position.
the key to this strategy is finding a stock that you gives you an ability to model a range of fair value years ahead with a very very high level of confidence that is trading below fair value (fwiw, this is significantly easier to do with Tesla than it was with Celgene). there are only two stocks I've found this to be the case for me. as it turns out, that number has been more than enough.
I started buying TSLA in 2012. Over the last four years if there is anything I could have done better? I would have never, ever tried the buy and sell approach. I am in a very good position with TSLA today thanks to my early TSLA purchases. But had I not done any of the the buy/sell/buy technique, I would be in an even better place today.
fwiw, I just did some napkin math.
Jose Moran mentioned 5,000 coworkers. (assuming that is an accurate count of factory workers for last year's production level) if each received $10,000 more per year, that comes to $50 million per year. $50 million divided by ~80K vehicles produced last year is $700.
If I'm not missing something here... a quite meaningful increase for those working at the plant would be a rather negligible increase in S/X pricing. I know not everyone would agree, but, I think demand for the 3 will be far more than supply for a very very long time, so it too would seem able to absorb such a price increase (actually perhaps half the increase given Tesla's move to automation).
It would seem there's room for very meaningful wage increases without hurting Tesla's growth or profitability.
one final point... comparisons with other U.S. automakers seem to have an extremely large flaw. for virtually all working at the Fremont factory, there tenure with Tesla is under 5 years, and for most, under 3 years. Ford and GM have employees with over 3 decades of tenure, and, the average tenure is probably about 5-10 times that of the average person working at the Fremont factory. offsetting this somewhat, consideration of the cost of living in CA vs. Michigan is a fair point.
Jose Moran mentioned 5,000 coworkers. (assuming that is an accurate count of factory workers for last year's production level) if each received $10,000 more per year, that comes to $50 million per year. $50 million divided by ~80K vehicles produced last year is $700.
If I'm not missing something here... a quite meaningful increase for those working at the plant would be a rather negligible increase in S/X pricing. I know not everyone would agree, but, I think demand for the 3 will be far more than supply for a very very long time, so it too would seem able to absorb such a price increase (actually perhaps half the increase given Tesla's move to automation).
It would seem there's room for very meaningful wage increases without hurting Tesla's growth or profitability.
one final point... comparisons with other U.S. automakers seem to have an extremely large flaw. for virtually all working at the Fremont factory, there tenure with Tesla is under 5 years, and for most, under 3 years. Ford and GM have employees with over 3 decades of tenure, and, the average tenure is probably about 5-10 times that of the average person working at the Fremont factory. offsetting this somewhat, consideration of the cost of living in CA vs. Michigan is a fair point.
3Victoria
Active Member
And just for context, I include this post from a forum member of that time,which I saw appeared in the same thread, not too far before Curt's post in 2013:
"Sold half of my position today at $39.30. Hoping for a dip to get back in. I have no crystal ball but as many of you have pointed out, I think a dip back to ~$35 is more likely than breaking $40 at this point."
Mike Smith
Active Member
Must watch: (very interesting insider info regarding model 3 starting at 2:55).
Also, read the top comment.
Also, read the top comment.
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