2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

I didn't see Elon confirm that the base model would have more range than the Bolt, though I expect it will.

I concede Elon didn't say that. I stand by my expectation that Elon is not prepared to leave available any arguments that Bolt > 3 in any measurable way.

As much as I think HUD is cool, at this point I'm sure the simplest is the closest to truth, Elon says there is only 1 screen, wanted to keep the car simple, I'm going to take what he said at face value, expect 1 center touchscreen and done.

HUD was always a fantasy creation by overenthusiastic fans and was never derived from anything Tesla said.

I suspect you are correct.

Then in hindsight we will wonder what the hell the "like a spaceship" comment was about.

Believe what you want. Personally, and I know I'm not alone, speed on the center horizontally oriented display is simply not good enough. I will be VERY disappointed if that turns out to be the final configuration, to the point where it will dramatically increase the likelihood I choose to buy a used S over a new 3. There are very few cars with center gauge clusters which turned out to be popular. I believe it would be a catastrophic mistake which would cripple demand to do that to the 3, and I have a difficult time believing Tesla would make that mistake.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I suspect you are correct.

Then in hindsight we will wonder what the hell the "like a spaceship" comment was about.

Maybe it's along the line of autonomous driving. Samething that Jonas was talking about yesterday: when the M3 comes out, it will be revolutionary in terms of safety, not because there are new seatbelts or inertia dampers or stasis field that keep you safe. The autonomous safety feature with hidden sensors and invisible SW, is what make the difference.

 

[austinEV]

HUD was always a fantasy creation by overenthusiastic fans and was never derived from anything Tesla said.

Not really. We were fixing a pretty glaring omission in the prototype cars. And the test drivers were pretty coy. And Elon said that the interior isn't finished, wait for the final it will "feel like a spaceship".

If in the end he just meant one center touchscreen and everything else ultra minimal, it would all be very odd in hindsight.

Link for completeness: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[MitchJi]

This make sense to me:
2022: The Year Electric Vehicles Leave Gas Cars in the Dust | ARK


The automotive industry is approaching a profound inflection point: by 2022 the demand for electric vehicles1 (EVs) will begin to outpace that for gasoline powered cars. As the cost of lithium-ion cells falls faster than most analysts have anticipated and the cost to manufacture traditional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) powertrains increases, ARK Invest’s analysis suggests that 200-mile range EVs will be cheaper to the consumer than the majority of ICE vehicles within five to seven years. If 200-mile range EVs accommodate the travel needs of 80% of Americans, then current forecasts significantly understate the demand for EVs in 2020.

Accounting for roughly 20% of the total cost, battery costs are critical to future EV adoption. As lithium-ion battery prices decline during the next few years, ICE powertrains, which also account for roughly 20% of the cost of those vehicles, will rise primarily because of stricter efficiency and emission regulations. Currently, EVs sell at a premium to comparable ICE vehicles, but ARK anticipates that a 200-mile range EV with the same amenities as today’s best-selling ToyotaTMCamry will sell at a lower price point in 2022, as shown below.2
<Snip>
In a supply-constrained market, the winners are likely to be auto manufacturers with EV manufacturing and design expertise, battery manufacturers able to capitalize on the opportunity, and consumers benefiting from better performing cars at lower price points. Needless to say, oil and oil service firms will be vulnerable to a substantial and prolonged decline in global oil demand.

Tesla checks both boxes big time!

 

[JRP3]

Everyone knows spaceship = HUD

 

[Ulmo]

Not really. We were fixing a pretty glaring omission in the prototype cars. And the test drivers were pretty coy. And Elon said that the interior isn't finished, wait for the final it will "feel like a spaceship".

If in the end he just meant one center touchscreen and everything else ultra minimal, it would all be very odd in hindsight.

Link for completeness: Elon Musk on Twitter

Model X interior design was described as "like a spaceship" by some, so I just assumed it was related to any Model 3 spaceship comment. I'm particularly keen on this relationship of description, because I like posh luxury interiors as opposed to the spartan "minimalist" interiors Elon Musk has been described to prefer. Thus, when I heard the "like a spaceship" comment about the Model X interior look, I readied myself for the "like a spaceship" descriptions from people about the Model 3 interior.

I never watched the moon launch, because I wasn't born yet. I grew up during the Space Shuttle era, so I thought of interiors more like First Class seats on an airline. I grew up reading about what I decided in my own imagination was the posh interior of the ship with the Improbability Drive in Douglas Adams books, and then of course Star Trek, The Next Generation, which was just futuristic but still comfortable. When I saw people use "like a spaceship" to mean cold, uncomfortable, and spartan, I realized that I had to re-evaluate my assumptions and see that description as not helpful to meaning anything that I like. So, perhaps I was less susceptible to "spaceship" meaning something fantastic.

Now that I'm watching The Expanse and Dark Matter TV shows, I can point to yet another set of extremes to look at. Dark Matter is all about very posh interiors compared to The Expanse, but rather harsh and dangerously minimal compared to The Next Generation. The Expanse is more realistic with a lot of gritty interiors (including many that are "less than spartan" and some that are -- well, tolerable with lots of displays). I think it's valid to use today's fantasy TV shows as a gauge for how we design our terrestrial car interiors in terms of art comparisons, because they are all our current imagination and materials. For instance, I think both The Expanse and Dark Matter are overly outdated thinking for their respective eras: I think by then, we'll be mostly energy beings and robots floating through the solar system in computers in various levels of virtual realities and constructs. We'll come look at nature on Earth for beauty, or the solar system. Ships will carry supplies for computers to interconnect our minds across communications links in space. Humans won't ride them so much as beam their thoughts through communications channels made possible by the supplies ships bring and materials manufactured from materials in space. Of course, some beings will partially inhabit ships as computer programs. Our view would be out on space as well as in the mechanics and logic hardware of the ships, through the many on-board sensors. This notion of "space-age interior" is completely subjective when I look at it in the comparison from my point of view and what people have been using it to mean.

 

[austinEV]

Everyone knows spaceship = HUD

Spaceship=regular car-center cluster?

I mean the dragon capsule probably does not have a center cluster with a speedo, so maybe that is literally what he meant... "Its like a model S but even CLEANER".

Dragon interior, conspicuous lack of cluster

 

[JRP3]

Dragon interior, conspicuous lack of cluster

Conspicuous lack of image

 

[JBRR]

HUD was always a fantasy creation by overenthusiastic fans and was never derived from anything Tesla said.

Tesla hires an augmented reality/HUD expert for its Autopilot program what is this guy doing all day at tesla I wonder?

@16:00 some good nuggets here too.

 

[racer26]

Those of you who own AP-equipped S's and X's know.

When operating your car on AP, how much attention are you paying to the binnacle display seeing what the car sees (and therefore inferring what you expect its going to do)? What if that display was on the center display instead of the binnacle one? How safe do you think operating it would be? I know from my test drive, that I wouldn't be comfortable running AP if I couldn't see the visualization of what the car is thinking, and I think putting that on a center display would make monitoring it very difficult.

 

[MitchJi]

Not really. We were fixing a pretty glaring omission in the prototype cars. And the test drivers were pretty coy. And Elon said that the interior isn't finished, wait for the final it will "feel like a spaceship".

If in the end he just meant one center touchscreen and everything else ultra minimal, it would all be very odd in hindsight.

I'm confident that if there's a hud, that it'll be introduced on the MS-MX first.

IMO no M3 reveal part 3 means no hud.

 

[Ulmo]

Tesla hires an augmented reality/HUD expert for its Autopilot program what is this guy doing all day at tesla I wonder?

@16:00 some good nuggets here too.

I want this.

I haven't seen them say they'll do it.

Sounds like could be next version model S & X.

 

[racer26]

Another data point: Elon just tweeted that he thinks AWD Model 3 gets out the door soon enough to catch the $7500 tax credit. That windows it down to a likely launch by the end of 1Q18.

 

[Starno]

I think we'll still be able to get a 35K Model 3 totally fine, whom you can enjoy.

Because a 40k cars isn't a mass market car tbh

 

[austinEV]

Conspicuous lack of image

Sorry:

I'm confident that if there's a hud, that it'll be introduced on the MS-MX first.

IMO no reveal part 3 means no hud.

Agree, for everything to make sense it has to be in that order. However, disagree with your second sentence. The delaying the part 3 leaves as much room as possible for that transition.

Here are the many pieces:

1) The stated, and proven principle that the M3 will not get any feature the MS/X don't also get first.
2) The S/X interior is essentially unchanged for 5 years.
3) They hired that interior guy.
4) M3 will "feel like a spaceship".
5) M3 interior reveal that was promised, is either cancelled or pushed back as far as possible. Why bother if it is the same as the prototypes? New steering wheel or trim is hardly worthy of keeping a lid on.
6) Panasonic is promoting their HUD solution, which dovetails very nicely with self-driving. Really, everyone should watch this video. Tesla and Panasonic are about twinned at this point.
7) The center display on the model S/X shows the driver quite a lot about what the EAP/FSD is sensing and thinking. That info is critical for deciding if the car is doing the right thing. Currently the driver is supposed to be monitoring the situation and the EAP... by taking his/her eyes off the road and looking at the cluster. Totally better, safer if it is projected on the windshield
8) M3 will have the same EAP/FSD HW suite.... except the dash info? That makes no sense, unless you accept that Tesla is SOO confident that that info will not be required that they are designing it out.

To me this all points to this succession:

1) MS/X gets an interior update, in the same sense that the exterior got a refresh.
2) That refresh gets a HUD, which goes hand-in-hand with self driving EAP/FSD. Simple features at first with more to come later.
3) M3 is revealed to have the same sort of HUD.

Tesla loves throwing in hardware way ahead of the need for it, to prevent having to disappoint early adopters. By cramming in the HUD's they are entirely free to do whatever they want/need to do for years. I find this analogous to launching the model S in 2012 with just a giant touchscreen and a second dash screen. At the point they made that decision they didn't need to have any control or display decisions finalized. It was just a "software problem". They are STILL optimizing those cars with SW updates. By adding a HUD to the whole lineup they are future proofing.

 

[dalalsid]

Sorry:
View attachment 219628



Agree, for everything to make sense it has to be in that order. However, disagree with your second sentence. The delaying the part 3 leaves as much room as possible for that transition.

Here are the many pieces:

1) The stated, and proven principle that the M3 will not get any feature the MS/X don't also get first.
2) The S/X interior is essentially unchanged for 5 years.
3) They hired that interior guy.
4) M3 will "feel like a spaceship".
5) M3 interior reveal that was promised, is either cancelled or pushed back as far as possible. Why bother if it is the same as the prototypes? New steering wheel or trim is hardly worthy of keeping a lid on.
6) Panasonic is promoting their HUD solution, which dovetails very nicely with self-driving. Really, everyone should watch this video. Tesla and Panasonic are about twinned at this point.
7) The center display on the model S/X shows the driver quite a lot about what the EAP/FSD is sensing and thinking. That info is critical for deciding if the car is doing the right thing. Currently the driver is supposed to be monitoring the situation and the EAP... by taking his/her eyes off the road and looking at the cluster. Totally better, safer if it is projected on the windshield
8) M3 will have the same EAP/FSD HW suite.... except the dash info? That makes no sense, unless you accept that Tesla is SOO confident that that info will not be required that they are designing it out.

To me this all points to this succession:

1) MS/X gets an interior update, in the same sense that the exterior got a refresh.
2) That refresh gets a HUD, which goes hand-in-hand with self driving EAP/FSD. Simple features at first with more to come later.
3) M3 is revealed to have the same sort of HUD.

Tesla loves throwing in hardware way ahead of the need for it, to prevent having to disappoint early adopters. By cramming in the HUD's they are entirely free to do whatever they want/need to do for years. I find this analogous to launching the model S in 2012 with just a giant touchscreen and a second dash screen. At the point they made that decision they didn't need to have any control or display decisions finalized. It was just a "software problem". They are STILL optimizing those cars with SW updates. By adding a HUD to the whole lineup they are future proofing.

Or you wear something like this while driving:
Vuzix | View The Future

 

[racer26]

Or you wear something like this while driving:
Vuzix | View The Future

Never going to happen. Its not user-friendly enough. People (like me) with glasses can't use it.

 

[racer26]

Sorry:
View attachment 219628



Agree, for everything to make sense it has to be in that order. However, disagree with your second sentence. The delaying the part 3 leaves as much room as possible for that transition.

Here are the many pieces:

1) The stated, and proven principle that the M3 will not get any feature the MS/X don't also get first.
2) The S/X interior is essentially unchanged for 5 years.
3) They hired that interior guy.
4) M3 will "feel like a spaceship".
5) M3 interior reveal that was promised, is either cancelled or pushed back as far as possible. Why bother if it is the same as the prototypes? New steering wheel or trim is hardly worthy of keeping a lid on.
6) Panasonic is promoting their HUD solution, which dovetails very nicely with self-driving. Really, everyone should watch this video. Tesla and Panasonic are about twinned at this point.
7) The center display on the model S/X shows the driver quite a lot about what the EAP/FSD is sensing and thinking. That info is critical for deciding if the car is doing the right thing. Currently the driver is supposed to be monitoring the situation and the EAP... by taking his/her eyes off the road and looking at the cluster. Totally better, safer if it is projected on the windshield
8) M3 will have the same EAP/FSD HW suite.... except the dash info? That makes no sense, unless you accept that Tesla is SOO confident that that info will not be required that they are designing it out.

To me this all points to this succession:

1) MS/X gets an interior update, in the same sense that the exterior got a refresh.
2) That refresh gets a HUD, which goes hand-in-hand with self driving EAP/FSD. Simple features at first with more to come later.
3) M3 is revealed to have the same sort of HUD.

Tesla loves throwing in hardware way ahead of the need for it, to prevent having to disappoint early adopters. By cramming in the HUD's they are entirely free to do whatever they want/need to do for years. I find this analogous to launching the model S in 2012 with just a giant touchscreen and a second dash screen. At the point they made that decision they didn't need to have any control or display decisions finalized. It was just a "software problem". They are STILL optimizing those cars with SW updates. By adding a HUD to the whole lineup they are future proofing.

Do any forum members have a car in their hands produced since the shutdown yet?

What if the shutdown introduced it in the S/X, but its not going to start operating until 8.1 drops?

 

[Ulmo]

Do any forum members have a car in their hands produced since the shutdown yet?

What if the shutdown introduced it in the S/X, but its not going to start operating until 8.1 drops?

My murky memory has some people with post-shutdown cars quoting no HUD outlets. I saw either here or on YouTube's, most likely from the 100D threads.

Shutdown on Feb 28: Post shutdown builds

This vehicle which went into production post-shutdown of February: If given choice: AP1 or AP2 HW with SW to come?

Shows up as "March 8, 2017" in Model S Order & Delivery 2017

Here: Has anyone received a 100D? and 4:06 timepoint in:

 

[dalalsid]

Never going to happen. Its not user-friendly enough. People (like me) with glasses can't use it.

I know, was just kidding. I dont even wear sun glasses. I would never want to put on some stupid AR goggles just for driving. Maybe I'd try it once for experimentation but dont see that as practical