2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

Elon:

Yeah, probably a year from now. S will still win on acceleration though, due to having more space for a larger battery.

I didn't think that it's valid to assume that a comparison with that MS-MX has anything to do with M3 launch options.

You should have @AlMc teach you how to copy and paste .

Did you not read the context of the tweet Elon was replying to? It makes it pretty obvious.

 

[austinEV]

Or Elon is playing coy.

A HUD that can display speed, SOC and some basic AP info would be pretty simple.

I stand by my prediction that it will have a HUD, and that it will be introduced on the S/X first. This is entirely consistent with their design concepts: make a car that is as simple as possible mechanically, include big screens and computers and make as much as possible a "software problem". By including a HUD, just a display after all, they can do cool augmented reality stuff. This will be MORE important, not less for a self-driving car. You will want to know what it is keying off of and what it is missing.

Also pretty obvious that the front passenger is holding a laptop.

Yeah, it is showing what the HUD would show

Not exactly. Movies of hud on YouTube showing similar functionality. You touch the air.


Which tweet do you think means that?

Not sure what he is referring to here, but sounds good:

No one currently touches the model S/X cluster display. the middle display just needs to be touch screen.

 

[sub]

I want AWD and P (assuming price isn't outrageous like 80k) and biggest battery. I won't throw a temper tantrum though like the entitled members on TMC I've seen do so in the past. I'll just wait or buy an S/X instead.

 

[theschnell]

The question is how preemptive Elon is being with these tweets. Does he not like what he sees in forward indicators, or is he just being preemptive of what could be a potential problem?

Many in the M3 queue probably want AWD and the bigger battery. It is not a small thing to choose to disappoint thousands.

His tweets could also mean that they are behind on M3 launch goals. That they are simplifying to catch up.

I feel like Elon rarely does something for no reason. I think forward indicators of S and X a little weak, and he's hoping to bolster sales. Just my take. Again could be totally bogus. I've been wrong before...

 

[MitchJi]

Just think though - once dual motor Ps are shipping out after the initial kinks are worked out, margins are going to EXPLODE. I think there will be pent up demand for the higher versions and they could spend a couple quarters - again, post-initial production issues - building nothing but maxed out 3s (and still S/X of course). Let's just say I'll be increasing my TSLA holdings in the quarter when the high dollar 3s start shipping in volume.

IMO poor strategy. Waiting too long. The SP will explode before that. When they hit volume production.

 

[DurandalAI]

The tweet about not having dual motor or performance at the beginning goes along with what I was anticipating to simplify initial production. (Did not post about that on here, but on Electrek.) I'm more interested in dual motor than I am in performance, due to the better winter handling and slightly improved range, but mostly because I don't like RWD cars. I'm familiar with the performance characteristics of FWD and AWD, and prefer those if I can get.

However, from an investment point of view, I think this is a better plan, it simplifies things, it will allow faster production ramp-up. If the number of options available are limited, it should help production and inventory management.

 

[MitchJi]

No one currently touches the model S/X cluster display. the middle display just needs to be touch screen.

I don't understand why you quoted my post. I don't see a contradiction.

 

[30seconds]

don't forget that initial orders are going to tesla and space-x employees. given a modest production ramp that may take up most of this year so the dual motor variants may be available "soon" after production opening to non-employees

 

[theschnell]

I should state that I'm very happy with the concept of simplified initial production. I think that is definitely the way to go for faster production ramp.

I just think in general S sales are at risk for being taken by people waiting for M3, and that's why the timing of this announcement is now so as to let people know that if they want advanced features, buy an S today...

 

[esk8mw]

IMO poor strategy. Waiting too long. The SP will explode before that. When they hit volume production.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all in on shares already (have never sold a single share). I was referring to a short-term options play for the ER covering the first quarter high-margin 3s are available. I think the impact will be surprising to WS.

 

[electracity]

He said AWD in 6-9 months. So in Elon time early 2019, assuming they do not make a lot of cars this year.

That will disappoint a lot of M3 reservation holders, which is perhaps not a problem.

 

[Bgarret]

don't forget that initial orders are going to tesla and space-x employees. given a modest production ramp that may take up most of this year so the dual motor variants may be available "soon" after production opening to non-employees

I was thinking the same thing...if 6-9 months is from today and they are able to nail the most optimistic delivery schedule Elon gave to suppliers (from earnings transcript):

"So, when we place parts orders with our suppliers, we've told them 1,000 a week in July, 2,000 a week in August, and 4,000 a week in September. These are parts orders. Then the parts need to arrive. They need to be turned into a car. And the car needs to be delivered to customers."

At best, that is 4k produced in July, 8k produced in August and 16k produced in September, but most likely a month later. I'm guessing there are tens of thousands of West Coast single motor orders along with the pipeline for Stores and Test Drives. Elon just tweeted to anyone not and employee or a California Model S/X owner wanting dual motors that they are going to burn through the overhang of initial deliveries and by the time they would have gotten to the rest of us, more options will be available. Wouldn't worry too much.

 

[Waiting4M3]

You guys probably already know, I'm guessing non-D-P version of M3 will have between 210-249 mi of range, based on Elon's statement that MS will have more range, and MS60 (210 mi) is gone and MS75 (249 mi) is still available.

 

[Paracelsus]

Before it became more clear that we are likely about to see a 'share price launch' with the Model 3 launch, I was very disappointed that our reservation number for a Model 3 was about 140,000 and that they were going to push back the production of the AWD and P versions (as understandable as it was to do so). We would like both options in Northern Idaho with all the range we could possibly get due to the lack of charging stations in this part of the country, which would have likely pushed our reservation time even further back on the 'news' announced today. But given that the Yuuuuge & Bigly potential for the share price launch well before the likelihood that we would see our fully equipped Model 3, we are once again full of excitement today because it is increasingly clear that we will simply upgrade our Model 3 reservation for a new Model X when shares lift off, and pay cash for it instead from our long-position. It is a no-brainer for us. I love when Elon's 3-D chess game results in us being able to successfully play our life planning in 3D chess as well. Who would ever go back to playing 1D chess or checkers after following the Tesla car/solar/battery story?

 

[Waiting4M3]

I was thinking the same thing...if 6-9 months is from today and they are able to nail the most optimistic delivery schedule Elon gave to suppliers (from earnings transcript):

"So, when we place parts orders with our suppliers, we've told them 1,000 a week in July, 2,000 a week in August, and 4,000 a week in September. These are parts orders. Then the parts need to arrive. They need to be turned into a car. And the car needs to be delivered to customers."

At best, that is 4k produced in July, 8k produced in August and 16k produced in September, but most likely a month later. I'm guessing there are tens of thousands of West Coast single motor orders along with the pipeline for Stores and Test Drives. Elon just tweeted to anyone not and employee or a California Model S/X owner wanting dual motors that they are going to burn through the overhang of initial deliveries and by the time they would have gotten to the rest of us, more options will be available. Wouldn't worry too much.

This also makes some sense from the $7500 incentive point of view. The ones who will be more sensitive to the $7500 pricing difference will be the buyers who can afford the cheaper model, so this way those people get the $7500. Then when the P-D version is ready to roll, the volume will be higher and margin will be better, so they can lower the price to absorb the loss of the incentive.

 

[Leo9]

Elon Musk‏ @elonmusk
@kryniog The shorter wheelbase only allows for a 75 kWh pack in Model 3 at current cell/module energy densities

 

[racer26]

You guys probably already know, I'm guessing non-D-P version of M3 will have between 210-249 mi of range, based on Elon's statement that MS will have more range, and MS60 (210 mi) is gone and MS75 (249 mi) is still available.

I predict that the base Model 3 will roll with between 238 and 249 mi of EPA rated range. Less than a base S, but more than a Bolt.

 

[racer26]

Elon Musk‏ @elonmusk
@kryniog The shorter wheelbase only allows for a 75 kWh pack in Model 3 at current cell/module energy densities

Would also seem to confirm we will see at least 2 battery options for Model 3. "Less than 60kWh" in the base, and a 75kWh on the high end. Doesn't really leave room for a middle-sized option.

 

[dalalsid]

hmm, that's a lot of detail coming out in quick succession. LAtest one being more range than Bolt. So I'd say 60kWh and 75kWh as the two options

 

[racer26]

hmm, that's a lot of detail coming out in quick succession. LAtest one being more range than Bolt. So I'd say 60kWh and 75kWh as the two options

I'm thinking 55 and 75, actually, with a price differential of around $7500.