2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Reciprocity]

I have to eat my words, they are publishing pricing. Very much inline with my expectations of the price. I can only use my recent experience as an example. I am currently getting Solar quotes and I received one so far. $36,000 for about 13 megawatts of total production per year. I just checked the Tesla site for the price of solar roof for my house and its $55,000. I dont know how many watts, but the quote claims it will require 60% solar tile coverage to meet my needs. I am assuming all net metering and other programs would be the same. If I needed a roof, it would not hesitate, but my roof still has about 12 years of life.

Also verified that the feel the federal tax incentives will be 30% of the entire cost and not just the solar portion. That is huge as it magnifies the value you get. I feel like this roof would add $55k to the value of the home because of the lifetime protection it would provide to the home. You would need to replace the solar tiles at some point, but who knows how long they will last.

I pray for hail. Large, baseball sized hail. /haildance

Edit: No such luck for me (All hail reports near Chicago, Illinois in 2017)

 

[Mike Smith]

Queue Ford to buy a solar roofing startup for $1B to 'keep one foot in the future'.

 

[electracity]

Also verified that the feel the federal tax incentives will be 30% of the entire cost and not just the solar portion.

Which is horrible public policy.

 

[electracity]

Queue Ford to buy a solar roofing startup for $1B to 'keep one foot in the future'.

(runs out to garage to start solar roof company)

 

[MP3Mike]

Also verified that the feel the federal tax incentives will be 30% of the entire cost and not just the solar portion.

Tesla specifically says that the 30% would only be for the solar portion. (Why would they give you a 30% credit on something not solar?)

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla specifically says that the 30% would only be for the solar portion. (Why would they give you a 30% credit on something not solar?)

/shrug my math is awesome. Ok, its not the full roof, but its not only 60% of the roof. I guess it makes sense if the solar shingles are much more expensive then the non solar shingles. Obviously there are other solar specific components required, so I guess it makes sense.

 

[erthquake]

I have to eat my words, they are publishing pricing. Very much inline with my expectations of the price. I can only use my recent experience as an example. I am currently getting Solar quotes and I received one so far. $36,000 for about 13 megawatts of total production per year. I just checked the Tesla site for the price of solar roof for my house and its $55,000. I dont know how many watts, but the quote claims it will require 60% solar tile coverage to meet my needs. I am assuming all net metering and other programs would be the same. If I needed a roof, it would not hesitate, but my roof still has about 12 years of life.

Also verified that the feel the federal tax incentives will be 30% of the entire cost and not just the solar portion. That is huge as it magnifies the value you get. I feel like this roof would add $55k to the value of the home because of the lifetime protection it would provide to the home. You would need to replace the solar tiles at some point, but who knows how long they will last.

I pray for hail. Large, baseball sized hail. /haildance

Edit: No such luck for me (All hail reports near Chicago, Illinois in 2017)

If you want hail, try moving to Shortsville

 

[everman]

Cross posting in this thread (as it's a little more appropriate...)

Order placed before the tweet went live. Was refreshing the page all morning. Ordered for a large roof with two powerwall 2s order for Colorado Springs. Hoping I'm near the top of the list and can get it installed this summer. I've already got a totaled roof and have deposited the insurance money! Just need a roof to buy!

It was cool how it tapped in to the Google Project Sunroof database to pull annual sunlight hours and estimated exposed roof square footage.

Project Sunroof

 

[Reciprocity]

Cross posting in this thread (as it's a little more appropriate...)

Order placed before the tweet went live. Was refreshing the page all morning. Ordered for a large roof with two powerwall 2s order for Colorado Springs. Hoping I'm near the top of the list and can get it installed this summer. I've already got a totaled roof and have deposited the insurance money! Just need a roof to buy!

It was cool how it tapped in to the Google Project Sunroof database to pull annual sunlight hours and estimated exposed roof square footage.

Project Sunroof

My address does not show up in that project. Big whole around where I live.

 

[RobStark]

How quickly do you expect Gigafactory 2 to ramp up to 100,000 roofs per year?

My estimate 2019 at the earliest, 2020 more likely.

12-18 months.

The machines are already there. They just need process optimization. This isn't a Model X.

Then in 18 months they can pull the trigger on the clause with the State of New York that allows them to double size and capacity at the expense of the State of New York.

 

[MP3Mike]

/shrug my math is awesome. Ok, its not the full roof, but its not only 60% of the roof.

What are you shrugging about? It isn't 60% of the total cost, it is 60% of the cost of the solar portion; which costs ~3.8 times as much as the non-solar portion.

Total roof: 1,875 sqft.
Solar portion: 1,125 sqft * $42 = $47,250 - 30% credit ($14,175)
Non-solar portion: 750 sqft * $11 = $8,250

Total roof cost: $55,500

 

[racer26]

I have to eat my words, they are publishing pricing. Very much inline with my expectations of the price. I can only use my recent experience as an example. I am currently getting Solar quotes and I received one so far. $36,000 for about 13 megawatts of total production per year. I just checked the Tesla site for the price of solar roof for my house and its $55,000. I dont know how many watts, but the quote claims it will require 60% solar tile coverage to meet my needs. I am assuming all net metering and other programs would be the same. If I needed a roof, it would not hesitate, but my roof still has about 12 years of life.

Also verified that the feel the federal tax incentives will be 30% of the entire cost and not just the solar portion. That is huge as it magnifies the value you get. I feel like this roof would add $55k to the value of the home because of the lifetime protection it would provide to the home. You would need to replace the solar tiles at some point, but who knows how long they will last.

I pray for hail. Large, baseball sized hail. /haildance

Edit: No such luck for me (All hail reports near Chicago, Illinois in 2017)

30% ITC only on the active portion of the roof plus the powerwall. Play with the numbers in the calculator to see for yourself. inactive tiles are $11/sqft, active are $42/sqft

I worked out an estimated production from 1000sqft of active roof in Philadelphia, PA to be 8850kWh/yr

 

[everman]

I've finally caught up with this thread and I'm surprised no one has mentioned the insurance factors. I see two:
1) Your (my) asphalt roof is pummeled with hail. I get a check for the value of asphalt. I put that towards a solar roof, making it effectively a discounted upgrade
2) You call up the insurance company for inspection and they discover you've installed a bullet proof roof. Your rates drop significantly.

Folks may be enticed to upgrade once they have a hail damaged asphalt roof, check in hand and find themselves out roof shopping. Any insurance wonks out there who can estimate a potential homeowners insurance discount for a hail proof roof?

 

[Reciprocity]

What are you shrugging about? It isn't 60% of the total cost, it is 60% of the cost of the solar portion; which costs ~3.8 times as much as the non-solar portion.

Total roof: 1,875 sqft.
Solar portion: 1,125 sqft * $42 = $47,250 - 30% credit ($14,175)
Non-solar portion: 750 sqft * $11 = $8,250

Total roof cost: $55,500

I figured it out.. im just slow.. thanks for pointing it out just how slow I am.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If they're going to go for profitability over quantity of installs, like they are with their grid-scale products, I would guess cost will be somewhat on high end of traditional roofing materials. I did a quick check on tile roof costs for So Cal. Tiles only cost for a 2400 square foot roof ranges between $8-$11.50/sq. ft. Full install costs including removal of the old roof would be about $12-$18/sq. ft.

If Tesla prices their roof less than this, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Edit: Just figuring consumer cost. No idea on production cost.

I was expecting in this range as well.

 

[Tempus]

I've finally caught up with this thread and I'm surprised no one has mentioned the insurance factors. I see two:
1) Your (my) asphalt roof is pummeled with hail. I get a check for the value of asphalt. I put that towards a solar roof, making it effectively a discounted upgrade
2) You call up the insurance company for inspection and they discover you've installed a bullet proof roof. Your rates drop significantly.

Folks may be enticed to upgrade once they have a hail damaged asphalt roof, check in hand and find themselves out roof shopping. Any insurance wonks out there who can estimate a potential homeowners insurance discount for a hail proof roof?

I'm totally praying for hail. It probably doesn't make sense for me to tear out my perfectly good roof, but if the insurance company would pay for an asphault-equivalent, i'd happily pay the difference for a solar roof, even without taking into consideration potential rate drops.

 

[Hogfighter]

I completely see customers that will only buy the non-solar tiles for their whole roof, just for the warranty.

 

[Reciprocity]

If they're going to go for profitability over quantity of installs, like they are with their grid-scale products, I would guess cost will be somewhat on high end of traditional roofing materials. I did a quick check on tile roof costs for So Cal. Tiles only cost for a 2400 square foot roof ranges between $8-$11.50/sq. ft. Full install costs including removal of the old roof would be about $12-$18/sq. ft.

If Tesla prices their roof less than this, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Edit: Just figuring consumer cost. No idea on production cost.

Bloomburg is showing $42/sq. ft. for active tiles and $11 for inactive, installed. If you figure 40% active, $23.4 /sq ft. at 40% active. Obviously that changes depending on how much solar roof you need to be active. Makes we think there is a market for even the inactive tiles.

Tesla’s Solar Roof Pricing Is Cheap Enough to Catch Fire

 

[pz1975]

Do you think anybody will ask for an install of a roof with only non-solar tiles? It would still look nice, be very durable and would be quite inexpensive. I doubt Tesla would go for it as there will probably be some minimum solar component needed.

 

[DaveT]

Anybody besides me not very excited that Tesla is getting into the roof business?