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I mean... I always figured most of those ridiculous concept cars didn't actually function, and were basically rolling sculptures.
Yeah me too. Another 404 from Electrek
404, page not found
This happens about 5% of the time I try to log-on click electrek stories.
A closer number, based on your own sources but with better assumptions would be
Total installed TE up to end of 2016: 300-398 MWh
Total COGS for TE during same period of time: $111.3M (2016) + $ 12.3M (2015) + $4.0M (2014) = $127.6M
So cost for TE on average over the three years was between $321/kWh and $425/kWh
Needless to say, TE is not having great margins even without discounts to large scale products. But let's find out at exactly what price was TE being sold at
Total revenue from TE up to end of 2016: $181.4M (total revenue for SCTY and TE in 2016) - $84.1M (revenue of SCTY in 2016) + $14.5M (TE in 2015) + $4.2M (TE in 2014) = $116M
So ASP for TE over the three years was between $291/kWh and $387/kWh.
This translates into a gross margin of around -9%.
From the passages quoted by JBRR above we know that cost of TE revenue in 2016 was $99M.
Also wrong. The correct number is $178.3M (total COGS for SCTY and TE) - $67M (COGS of SCTY) = $111.3M
On October 27 Tesla indicated that to that date they installed 300MWh of TE. In the Q4 shareholder letter they shared that total TE installations were 98MWh. So we can assume that total installed capacity of TE in 2016 was between 300 and 398MWh.
This is just wrong. "To date" means from at least 2015 when they revealed TE and very much likely to include installed capacity before as they showcased several industrial cases of TE as pilot projects.
They are right there sitting on page 44 and 45 in the recent 10-K.Also, am not sure where are you getting TE COGS for 2015 and 2014. As far as I recall they did not disclose this information until relatively recently.
I suggest you read what I posted one more time. As stated the TE revenue was calculated for 2016, namely: (total 2016 increase in COGS) - (SCTY increase in COGS) = $166M - $67M = $99M.
I don't understand why it is wrong to include 2014 and 2015 TE installation. That's basically what "to date" means. Using that $430/kWh, those two years had 38 MWh. More maybe included if Tesla was giving sample tests or deep discounts to those who used them basically as beta testers. And in fact those two years were the years when TE actually had positive margins btw.No, it is not wrong. It is wrong to include 2014 and 2015 in the calculation because it was very low volume production of initial iteration of TE products which has no bearing on gross margins going forward.
I'm not contending this point. As I was using it as well.The upper boundary for TE sales in 2016 is obviously 300MWh + 98MWh = 398MWh
For the PPA, I admit I am not very familiar with this so maybe you can help me with a few questions.You are making fundamental mistake in your calculation.
Google cache of VW article on Electrek
I don't disagree with anything you said. In fact, I whole-heartedly agree. The S is a wonderful vehicle. Even as a style of vehicle that people aren't currently buying, the S has sold amazingly well. And it did so without ANY funky gimmicks. Just regular ole doors. And why wouldn't it? It's a great looking car that does what a sedan is suppose to do - and has all the advantages of being electric.
The X on the other hand, is a TOTALLY different animal. It is WAY overpriced due to the FWDs and other things Musk put on it that will not increase sales even one car (those who don't want FWDs and can't afford the $100k price tag will be FAR greater than those who buy the X because of those doors). It is a warranty nightmare which is overburdening the service centers and killing Tesla's reputation for good customer service. Musk said the sales of the X and the S would be about 50-50 - even with the higher price of the X, because more people wanted an SUV. Boy was he wrong!
This is the golden age of the SUV. Tesla should be selling twice as many (thus having a massive back-log), with a much higher gross margin. Instead, they are barely selling. People are begging Tesla to take them back (just go read the X forum). And lately, the Tesla For Sale page is filling up with X's for sale.
Oh, and did I mention that the X was delayed almost 2 years due to those doors that are now costing Tesla millions in warranty repairs and lemon buy-backs?
It's an incredibly wasted opportunity and a terrible blunder in the life of Tesla. But, it's NOT too late. Fix the damn car and use the same model as the S - sexy car that is dependable and does what it is suppose to do (the current X's seat don't even fold down!!), and be an EV to boot!
It's that simple.
There needs to be a "I don't like this post, because I don't WANT it to be true, but it is" button. Everyone clicking the disagree button, but not a single person saying which part they disagree with. You can't disagree with the entire post because most of it is facts.