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Buddyroe
Active Member
I'm starting to think the pundits are right - the more cars Tesla sells, the more they lose. People seem to be happy that revenues increased to record levels. How, exactly is that a good thing if they just keep losing more money as they increase revenue? I guess this explains why they hardly built a supercharger the first quarter - it would have just made this loss even worse.
I'm also realizing that the experts posting here and only experts in their own mind. People that love to hear themselves speak and truly believe they know everything.
So, let's see how many people are going to stand up and say, "I was dead wrong about earnings this time and I have no credibility going forward."
I'm also realizing that the experts posting here and only experts in their own mind. People that love to hear themselves speak and truly believe they know everything.
So, let's see how many people are going to stand up and say, "I was dead wrong about earnings this time and I have no credibility going forward."
We have yet to recognize a significant amount of deferred revenue from future functionalities related to Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability options. There were no ZEV credit sales during the quarter.
They are saving it for next ER with deliveries of Model 3.
They are saving it for next ER with deliveries of Model 3.
snellenr
Member
Yes they coined the term gigafactory so well and now they devalue it by naming a mid size factory like it, not smart.
racer26
Active Member
In fairness, what I said was that if they sold ZEV credits, there was about $140M of money would could have had.
They sold none.
That means they have $140M or so of ZEV credits sitting in the bank, accruing at a rate of around $70M in credits per quarter.
Nice to see Tesla Energy department reporting a GM of ~30% this Q. Hope they can further differentiate storage and solar. But I think the time of negative to near zero GM on storage is behind us for good.
Revenue increased 235% year-over-year this quarter, while operating expenses increased by only 85% year-over-year. This trend will continue, and Tesla will likely be profitable in 2018 as a result. Stop hyperventilating.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
(1) Loss before Income Taxes is 371M. R&D alone was 322M and SG&A grew almost 150M as the company expands its facilities and workforce. If Tesla wasn't committed to order-of-magnitude manufacturing growth on their 3rd Generation platform, they'd be profitable.
(2) I have never claimed to be an expert or know everything. In fact, I have gone to great lengths to tell people to keep their expectations realistic.
(3) Make your own decisions. If you truly believe this company is going nowhere, sell all your shares and move on. With TSLA over 300 for awhile now, my guess is that you've probably made some gains if you hold shares.
Things I like:
-Model 3 still on track for July. Schuler press is in and being tuned. We get more detail in the letter than we've had in the past (IIRC) on specifics: "Model 3 activities related to vehicle development, manufacturing equipment installation and supplier readiness remain on plan to start production in July." Also a specific call-out that the press will not be a hold-up for July.
-Reiterate 5,000/week in 2017 and 10,000/week in 2018 guidance.
-Opening Tesla body shops, and expanding 3rd-party certified body shops.
-Reiterating 2017 doubling of supercharger/destination charger counts. Reiterate 100 new retail/delivery/service locations in 2017.
-Continuing to offer achievable outlook guidance--47k-50k vehicles in 1H, meaning 22k-25k in 2Q.
Things I'm not ecstatic about:
-Bigger-than-expected loss
-Energy generation/storage are both down vs Q4 (150 MW / 60 MWh vs 201 MW / 98 MWh). I understand the logic (choosing higher-margin projects), but this is the opposite of expansion that we're all hoping to see. Further, the big Kauai project isn't actually fully online yet. "Final testing on the KIUC project will be completed very shortly." So of that 60 MWh, at most 8 MWh is fully complete.
-No ZEV revenue, and lower NCI than I believe we had been expecting. Combine those with the small energy #s and we get a bigger-than-expected loss despite the record deliveries.
Things I'm unclear on:
-Why do they list a $26 million warranty reserve hit for the Takata airbag recall? Wouldn't this be on Takata? Or is this just an interim reserve while the replacements are processed before Takata pays up?
All in all, it's a fine report for the long-term in that they are hitting the far-and-away #1 priority of getting Model 3 out in some quantity in July and preparing to quickly ramp it (as opposed to what I'll charitably call 'Model X-ramp it'). But those lottery calls I bought an hour ago? Yeah; they're going to zero.
-Model 3 still on track for July. Schuler press is in and being tuned. We get more detail in the letter than we've had in the past (IIRC) on specifics: "Model 3 activities related to vehicle development, manufacturing equipment installation and supplier readiness remain on plan to start production in July." Also a specific call-out that the press will not be a hold-up for July.
-Reiterate 5,000/week in 2017 and 10,000/week in 2018 guidance.
-Opening Tesla body shops, and expanding 3rd-party certified body shops.
-Reiterating 2017 doubling of supercharger/destination charger counts. Reiterate 100 new retail/delivery/service locations in 2017.
-Continuing to offer achievable outlook guidance--47k-50k vehicles in 1H, meaning 22k-25k in 2Q.
Things I'm not ecstatic about:
-Bigger-than-expected loss
-Energy generation/storage are both down vs Q4 (150 MW / 60 MWh vs 201 MW / 98 MWh). I understand the logic (choosing higher-margin projects), but this is the opposite of expansion that we're all hoping to see. Further, the big Kauai project isn't actually fully online yet. "Final testing on the KIUC project will be completed very shortly." So of that 60 MWh, at most 8 MWh is fully complete.
-No ZEV revenue, and lower NCI than I believe we had been expecting. Combine those with the small energy #s and we get a bigger-than-expected loss despite the record deliveries.
Things I'm unclear on:
-Why do they list a $26 million warranty reserve hit for the Takata airbag recall? Wouldn't this be on Takata? Or is this just an interim reserve while the replacements are processed before Takata pays up?
All in all, it's a fine report for the long-term in that they are hitting the far-and-away #1 priority of getting Model 3 out in some quantity in July and preparing to quickly ramp it (as opposed to what I'll charitably call 'Model X-ramp it'). But those lottery calls I bought an hour ago? Yeah; they're going to zero.
Pundits put all losses in the cars. Ignore that the cars do sell at a profit. They ignore all the capital investment being made to support the new business coming. You cant build 500K Model 3s starting with no investment.
i can't believe stock is not down more, must be as people have said - model 3 being on track trumps everything else.
my estimates were totally off. definitely not 2013 all over again.
my estimates were totally off. definitely not 2013 all over again.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
About Takata, I suspect this is for labor and other costs that Tesla has to front, not just the replacement airbag inflators.
I haven't looked at the Takata situation recently but as of late last year the company was on the verge of collapse and potential buyers were demanding bankruptcy as a condition of any takeover. If that happens, the automakers will likely be liable for much of the replacement costs. The whole mess has been financially punishing for Honda, but it kind of is justice since Honda's cheapness drove them to use Takata airbags in the early 2000's, which in turn lead to the proliferation of Takata's defective products among almost all car makers.
I expect Tesla to incur more Takata recall costs as there are 4.5 years worth of Model S that wil eventually need new inflators.
i can't believe stock is not down more, must be as people have said - model 3 being on track trumps everything else.
my estimates were totally off. definitely not 2013 all over again.
Nonetheless, thank you (and neroden, and others) for putting in the work. It's much appreciated. I followed the discussion and think you did the best you could have given the black box you were dealing with.
Increasing automotive ASP and much higher margins on energy were both very good news.
i updated the table in the 2017q1 thread to show actual results vs. the various analyst estimates. i'm sure tamberrino is somewhere saying "who's the muppet now!!!"
considering results are worse than most analysts estimates on most measures, i'm shocked the stock has not moved much.
considering results are worse than most analysts estimates on most measures, i'm shocked the stock has not moved much.
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