If Tesla can capture 0.75% of the 2017 Global Car Market in 2020, or just 2.9% of the 2017 US Car Market and 0% of the 2017 World Car Market in 2020, they will sell approximately 500,00 cars a year.
500,000 cars x $60,000 ASP = $30 Billion. If after all expenses and yada yada yada is taken into account, Tesla GAAP profits are equal to what GM makes on each car (WHICH IS A LOW-BALL BECAUSE GM IS STILL USING A DEALERSHIP MODEL), you'll have a company looking like this:
5+ years of at least 50% revenue growth, with high-end products sustaining 20%-25% margins, lower-end products sustaining 10%-15% margins, resulting in profits of approximately $3 Billion.
There are very few companies in this world that have billions of dollars of revenue and are growing that revenue at a rate of at least 50% a year, every year, with plans to grow up to 100% a year if all goes as planned.
If you apply a multiple of 30 to a company like that, which is low if you've followed markets over the years, you'd come to a $90 Billion valuation.
Tesla would still not be as valuable as GM and its dealerships. Not even close. Those dealerships aren't paying those $75,000 a year salesman with fun-coupons. And there are THOUSANDS of GM dealerships.
So, when it doubt, math and logic.
Stocks go up and down and change all the time. Simple math today is simple math tomorrow.
