2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Papafox]

You have to give the shorts credit for persistence. At 9:55am we saw 20,000 shares sold in one minute and a $2 drop to the SP. Let's hope volume stays high enough today to counter the mischief. Large volume buying at close yesterday and at open today is a positive sign for longs.

 

[racer26]

You have to give the shorts credit for persistence. At 9:55am we saw 20,000 shares sold in one minute and a $2 drop to the SP. Let's hope volume stays high enough today to counter the mischief. Large volume buying at close yesterday and at open today is a positive sign for longs.

I did my share, picking up 12 more October 20 365 calls. Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be a mistake.

 

[Richgoogol]

It seems like it doesn't take much effort to make the SP drop

 

[Lessmog]

It seems like it doesn't take much effort to make the SP drop

Sorry I can't contribute now. Similar situation to TT007, in that I'm broke. Bought two (2) shares yesterday. Wish there more similarities, but there you go.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think shorts know the pain that will be coming within a quarter and are trying to get one last low to exit. That's a good sign for longs IMHO.

 

[Richgoogol]

Sorry I can't contribute now. Similar situation to TT007, in that I'm broke. Bought two (2) shares yesterday. Wish there more similarities, but there you go.

Same here. I am literally all in at the moment. Wish I had sold some shares last week at ATH to buy the dip here.

 

[Richgoogol]

When would they release the delivery report? This weekend?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I really do not have a clue what TSLA will do on Monday, but inspired by my good guesswork on Friday, I am going to opine nevertheless.

I think that we have a pretty well established (pink) symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, so I continue to look on SP movements in this context. We had a clear failed breakout, thwarted by the bear attack which brought us right to the upper support line of the symmetrical triangle which on Friday, coincidentally, met up with the support line of the extension of the regression channel TSLA followed 8/21 - 9/11 (light blue). This, BTW, was the basis of my successful call on Friday.

So I think that Monday TSLA will test the support line of the pink triangle again. If this support line stands, I think that TSLA will go into the (brown) wedge, eventually successfully testing $390-ies, most likely coincidental with some good news - either Q3 deliveries (just to make sure I do not believe that we can make a call on that - so just hypothetical), or Semi event, or ER call.

If TSLA is not able to hold the (pink) triangle support line on Monday, I think that SMA(100) might not offer much support either, and the bottom line of the pink triangle will quickly come into play...

***Not an advice from the low ranking member of the Asylum for delusional***

View attachment 249770

We've got a fight on our hands: either TSLA pushed back into the pink triangle, with potential to break down from there, or into a brown wedge, with a likely eventual break out to ATH...

 

[zdriver]

You have to give the shorts credit for persistence. At 9:55am we saw 20,000 shares sold in one minute and a $2 drop to the SP. Let's hope volume stays high enough today to counter the mischief. Large volume buying at close yesterday and at open today is a positive sign for longs.

Actually, looks like that was simply downward momentum initiated from a dark pool dump at 9:53am. Doesn't take much in these thin conditions. Looks like just another day of very few buyers showing up, so drifting down we go...

 

[Lessmog]

We've got a fight on our hands: either TSLA pushed back into the pink triangle, with potential to break down from there, or into a brown wedge, with a likely eventual break out to ATH...

Rated R or even X^ , but given a choice between a pink triangle and a brown wedge ... say no more.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Rated R or even X^ , but given a choice between a pink triangle and a brown wedge ... say no more.

Whatever Tesla stock does today, you can console yourself knowing that you won the Internet for today my friend!

 

[D-egg-O]

When would they release the delivery report? This weekend?

No later than 3 days after end of quarter.

 

[ggies07]

2. Potential acceleration of addressable market through word-of-mouth advertising. Tesla experienced a similar phenomenon with the Model S. If your neighbor gets a Model 3, you may want to drive it. Assuming your neighbor lets you drive it, you may decide want one. In that case, you won’t need to visit a Tesla store. With a 3 to 5x multiplication of the car population, the Tesla store will effectively come to you.

He's got a point here. I've said this elsewhere, but I will be the first one in my neighborhood (homes 250k-600k) to get an electric car (Tesla to be exact) and will give a test ride to every single neighbor if they want.

 

[bdy0627]

The bears are doing a delayed morning attack, allowing a tentative rally to develop at the open. Once it is attacked, due to iffy sentiment right now, confidence in the rally drops and longs/traders get out, which emboldens the bears.. The 100 DMA has held in the past by close. The one potentially important difference we have to consider this time is the weekly chart is no longer bullish. It has been bullish during the previous dips when the 100 DMA held. This difference will raise the interest of bears and scare bulls, which may be why buying pressure is not there. Ultimately, we won't know until the close. Remember that there have been several dips in the past where intraday things looked very ugly, like the stock was going to close down 10 to 15 points, only to rally back by close. The PM response today will be the key. If the stock does close red today, it will likely result in further drop toward the lower trendline, meaning about 10 to 15 points.

 

[bonaire]

Elon and Deepak seemed very confident of 25% GMs for the Model 3 a few months after Tesla reaches a 5K per week production rate.

But yeah I agree that many analysts are not including that in their models yet. I view that as a good thing since it is an indication of upside potential since the market is not pricing it in.

I presume they feel that "everyone will buy the higher-priced options like FSD, AWD, glass roof and more" making typical price assumption be in the $50k range. Base $35k cars will be in demand by people who do not feel those are useful options. Maybe the consumer community wants to be driven-around and will pay $6k or more perhaps to get it done - but there comes a point where people will choose lower cost over this add-on convenience feature. it's a bear case but also how many buyers of consumer level cars today buy the "safety" features on Hondas, Fords and GMs? Maybe 5%-10%?

 

[bdy0627]

Pretty much following macros

 

[bdy0627]

The big red hourly candle at the open on July 10th that defined the bottom of that dip dropped the stock over 9 points but the next candle was a big green candle with even higher volume bringing the stock back up 9 points.We are not seeing that today and macros are clearly not helping.

 

[bdy0627]

Where did everyone go??? It's pretty quiet in here.

 

[Richgoogol]

I'm searching around the house for loose change so I can buy a few more shares...

 

[aznt1217]

Where did everyone go??? It's pretty quiet in here.

Licking our wounds, hiding in a bunker, whatever your mind imagines.