jelloslug
Active Member
This seems to be advice that should have been given a few months ago, not at the cusp of the volume ramp up.
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This seems to be advice that should have been given a few months ago, not at the cusp of the volume ramp up.
I think we are reading the same leaks, but our takeaways are slightly different.Based on all the leaks I've read, I believe that they are dealing with the pack bottleneck in the short run by manually assembling that stage of pack construction, using a lot of employees and a lot of money. This is while they are building the new automated line for that section of pack production.
I'd hope, but not think that is happening in the base case. Some of this may only be possible to debug with burst runs and I am not sure they even have enough stuff to work with for burst runs at 2k a week.I do, however, think they have probably worked out a bunch of the other bottlenecks *while they are waiting to finish the new automated line*. This probably means fewer line shutdowns for debugging in *other* parts of the production line.
Again, I hope something like this happens, but not expecting that. My baseline is probably at 1K a week in mid January, 2K by late Feb, almost reaching 4k by end March. Please keep in mind I am talking about burst speeds possible and this is exclusive of line down time, for setting up to the next target. Some time in late Q1, burst speeds stop mattering less than down time and we need to start talking about monthly rates. There is also the tradeoff between QC done on the line and the speed of the line. I am not sure where Tesla wants to set the knob. Tesla is in the right position to make this tradeoff and I trust Elon to get this balance right. (Despite all the leaks saying Tesla is dropping the ball on QC)This may lead to a rather sudden and unexpected-to-Wall-Street announcement. Shortly after the pack bottleneck is eliminated, we may hear the announcement of a direct jump from whatever number per week they're doing now to, say, 4000 per week, overnight.
Yes, little point in stress testing with burst runs for a full week, at this stage. 15 minutes to an hour should be plenty, and risks less discards.Fair. I suspect they are doing burst runs already.
The Q3 letter said they were doing burst runs and some sections were at 1,000 per week, others at 500 but increasing.Fair. I suspect they are doing burst runs already.
Is this a bear trap, or what?! One quote says it all:
Major support going back to May.Is 306.5 today's max pain? Seems like it's been pegged to it ever since the market has settled.
The three long bear runs for Tesla lasted only about 6 to 7 months from peak to trough. Not sure if we should count mid-June or mid-September as the peak, but using the latter suggests that the run should bottom out by mid-April. Hopefully, it won't take that long to bottom out, but it is nice to think that it will be done by mid-April. This timing would also coincide with Q1 conference call. So if Q1 posts good results, we could be set up for some really spectacular share price appreciation to follow.
I bought my first shares in mid-March 2013 at $53. Q1 results posted a GAAP profit as Model S production was past the awkward early stage. The stock price soared. Will this dynamic could play out again next year?
They have bet the same thing on every model that Tesla has made. They will lose, yet again. What's that definition of insanity again?Is this a bear trap, or what?! One quote says it all:
"Much of the short selling stems from doubts that Tesla will be able to bring its mid-priced Model 3 to full production, having delivered far fewer sedans than expected in 2017."
It boggles the mind that people are actually betting their own money (or others' money) on the notion that Tesla will not be able to bring the Model 3 to full production. I totally get betting on the timing execution but this makes no sense to me. One thing is for sure: we will find out just how well this works out for them in the coming months.
Is this a bear trap, or what?! One quote says it all:
"Much of the short selling stems from doubts that Tesla will be able to bring its mid-priced Model 3 to full production, having delivered far fewer sedans than expected in 2017."
It boggles the mind that people are actually betting their own money (or others' money) on the notion that Tesla will not be able to bring the Model 3 to full production. I totally get betting on the timing execution but this makes no sense to me. One thing is for sure: we will find out just how well this works out for them in the coming months.
Remember when Elon promised 5k model3/week?? Those figures are drastically reduced down to, I say,about 50/wk at best.