jelloslug
Active Member
This seems to be advice that should have been given a few months ago, not at the cusp of the volume ramp up.
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I think we are reading the same leaks, but our takeaways are slightly different.
I'd hope, but not think that is happening in the base case. Some of this may only be possible to debug with burst runs and I am not sure they even have enough stuff to work with for burst runs at 2k a week.
Again, I hope something like this happens, but not expecting that. My baseline is probably at 1K a week in mid January, 2K by late Feb, almost reaching 4k by end March. Please keep in mind I am talking about burst speeds possible and this is exclusive of line down time, for setting up to the next target. Some time in late Q1, burst speeds stop mattering less than down time and we need to start talking about monthly rates. There is also the tradeoff between QC done on the line and the speed of the line. I am not sure where Tesla wants to set the knob. Tesla is in the right position to make this tradeoff and I trust Elon to get this balance right. (Despite all the leaks saying Tesla is dropping the ball on QC)
Yes, little point in stress testing with burst runs for a full week, at this stage. 15 minutes to an hour should be plenty, and risks less discards.
(Not that I know anything, mind!)
The Q3 letter said they were doing burst runs and some sections were at 1,000 per week, others at 500 but increasing.
bdy0627
Active Member
Is this a bear trap, or what?! One quote says it all:
"Much of the short selling stems from doubts that Tesla will be able to bring its mid-priced Model 3 to full production, having delivered far fewer sedans than expected in 2017."
It boggles the mind that people are actually betting their own money (or others' money) on the notion that Tesla will not be able to bring the Model 3 to full production. I totally get betting on the timing execution but this makes no sense to me. One thing is for sure: we will find out just how well this works out for them in the coming months.
pz1975
Active Member
There is a 6 in the closing prIce.
Aliens.
Aliens.
jhm
Well-Known Member
The three long bear runs for Tesla lasted only about 6 to 7 months from peak to trough. Not sure if we should count mid-June or mid-September as the peak, but using the latter suggests that the run should bottom out by mid-April. Hopefully, it won't take that long to bottom out, but it is nice to think that it will be done by mid-April. This timing would also coincide with Q1 conference call. So if Q1 posts good results, we could be set up for some really spectacular share price appreciation to follow.
I bought my first shares in mid-March 2013 at $53. Q1 results posted a GAAP profit as Model S production was past the awkward early stage. The stock price soared. Will this dynamic could play out again next year?
I bought my first shares in mid-March 2013 at $53. Q1 results posted a GAAP profit as Model S production was past the awkward early stage. The stock price soared. Will this dynamic could play out again next year?
Almost certainly it will, if the news is un-expected as Neroden speculates we could see a bit of a short squeeze. Personally I expect to hear good news prior to the Q1 conferance call. I doubt the rise, based on ramp up information, that is released during the conference call will cause anything spectacular, as that news would be anticipated by the market at that point.
They have bet the same thing on every model that Tesla has made. They will lose, yet again. What's that definition of insanity again?
Lots of ignorant people who are afraid of change willing to bet hard-earned money on it. Same goes for bulls expecting the best. There is only one guaranteed winner, the house. I can't imagine how much money these companies make off people trading on the stock market. Clearly the FUDsters are running very low on material and are resorting to a silly bet against production. As if THIS, out of all else, will be the downfall of Elon. That's just silly. Silly!
Tesla has only delivered 345 Model 3 last month. It is beyond pathetic. You know what that means= Stock go downnnnnnn
They are still fixing the robot arm that fell off at the time when it was producing batteries.
They are still fixing the robot arm that fell off at the time when it was producing batteries.
Remember when Elon promised 5k model3/week?? Those figures are drastically reduced down to, I say,about 50/wk at best.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Model 3 VIN 1910 spotted:
Highest production VIN in the wild
Highest production VIN in the wild
Ignoring that for last month Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard reported 345 per month already, which averages to 87 per week, likely faster now. Remember exponential rampup once the breakthrough happens. We will see the 5k/week, but probably in a month rather than in a week. I don't doubt they can make them that fast, but the next interesting thing to learn and develop is the capability to deliver them to end-customers at that rate, too.
With VIN 1910 on delivery soon, it would be produced one or two weeks ago. Quality check has been done after production and takes some time. My guess is that they now produce M3's in VIN range 2000-2500.
I am more optimistic at this moment than others here on this page.
I think first non employees will get their VIN numbers end next week. (expect close to VIN 3000)
Next week I also expect a new VIN range reservation done by Tesla. Current range is up to close 3700.
Lets wait and see if I am right
I am more optimistic at this moment than others here on this page.
I think first non employees will get their VIN numbers end next week. (expect close to VIN 3000)
Next week I also expect a new VIN range reservation done by Tesla. Current range is up to close 3700.
Lets wait and see if I am right
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