7.5 years from now or 120,000 miles my battery is out of warranty and is dead or serious degraded..

[MXWing]

What happens next?

I tried doing a search on the Model S forums but my Google-fu seems weak and couldn't locate satisfactory responses.

Could you buy a replacement pack AND would it ever make any sense? Tesla prefers a new sale as would anyone else.

We won't know for sure until someone crosses that bridge but I wonder if there is an S owner that could offer guidance in this regard?

Roadster Battery Pack purchases would not be a useful data set as the circulation is practically nil.

My hunch to cover Tesla's overhead, it could be $200/kW + inflation so that would put the cost at $15,000 + inflation despite Tesla being at $100/kW or possibly less at that point.

Assuming the above service is offered?


TLDR - is keeping my Model 3 for 10-15 years an exercise in disillusion?

 

[Electroman]

8 years is too a long a time for this technology and specifically Tesla or anyone to say with any degree of certainty.

Two things I can speculate:

- Batteries prices fall and Tesla still makes compatible batteries to your Model 3 for one of their cars, and it sells you for less than $5K for parts and installation.

- Battery prices fall, but Tesla has moved onto a different chemistry, form factor and does not make or use these batteries anymore in their current lineup, making your cost pretty high at between $10 to $15k or more..

No one knows.. even Elon.

 

[Jedi2155]

AFAIK, Tesla has yet to ever replace a battery outside of warranty or the Roadster pack.

I believe it will start making sense once Tesla starts engineering new packs with larger capacities for older models.

For the original S/X, I believe their warranty will start ending somewhere around late 2020 early 2013. If Tesla is spending significant time on a battery pack refresh, I believe an owner would likely WANT to have the option of replacing it with one these packs where it would make sense.

Additionally for Model 3 owners, the highest mileage I've heard is 50,0000 miles a few weeks ago. At that rate, they would be out of warranty within a the next year or 2 so again targeting the 2020 time frame. I do not believe they'd have a better pack architecture by that point in time so anything changes would likely be just whatever options that are off the shelf which is another LR pack.

For most owners though, at the of 2025, to 2026, we might have more luck with a increased energy capacity pack replacement at the likely cost of $8000-15,000 as you'd suspect.

 

[chronopc]

For most owners though, at the of 2025, to 2026, we might have more luck with a increased energy capacity pack replacement at the likely cost of $8000-15,000 as you'd suspect.

Would love to be able to swap out the battery for one with increase energy capacity. If Tesla can get a handle on production and reduce cost, this would seem like a real possibility.

 

[adaptabl]

You would just scrap the car. The repair cost will exceed the value of the car. Similar to an ICE car needed a new engine outside of warranty.

 

[ℬête Noire]

The 7 years is a lot easier to assess, and I expect a lot safer. If you look at Prius, they've had 3rd party refurb batteries for a while. I expect Tesla will have gotten big enough by then that there will be enough regulatory/consumer pressure to open them up to this.

For those of us that are more likely to mile-out in 2020 or 2021 it is a lot murkier and dicier. Especially given as pointed out above that the Model S owners will not really have blazed a trail through official channels ahead of that.

However there HAVE been Model S (and I assume Model X?) battery pack replacements by self-styled DIY people, including using 3rd party supplied modules to refurb packs. The most famous/infamous of this RichRebuilds. The Model S pack is a lot more primitive in electronics and assembly but Sadow has teamed up with an ex-Tesla service tech to start up an actual Tesla mechanic garage business. And they're pretty adventurous so it is possible they'll be up doing refurbs and pack repairs by 2021, first with salvage and eventually as the rest of the battery industry catches up to the point of Tesla-today with new 3rd party modules.

I haven't given it a lot of thought but I expect a gut-check moment when my odometer rolls over 90,000 miles. I'll need to look around and do a serious assessment at that point. If I need to get out, to get the vehicle to someone that'll put miles on slower but still get a lot of years out of it, or if I'm going to sail into the Land of Dragons.

 

[Revelation]

You would just scrap the car. The repair cost will exceed the value of the car. Similar to an ICE car needed a new engine outside of warranty.

That simply isn't true... Many times engines are rebuilt or replaced in ICE cars instead of scrapping the entire vehicle.

OP; you will be able to replace the battery later on. You will either get one from Tesla or get one second-hand from a salvaged Tesla.

 

[chronopc]

I haven't given it a lot of thought but I expect a gut-check moment when my odometer rolls over 100,000 miles. I'll need to do a serious assessment at that point.

I'm hoping to get 200k out of my LR Model 3, which is only 80k miles out of the battery and powertrain warranty.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I'm hoping to get 200k out of my LR Model 3, which is only 80k miles out of the battery and powertrain warranty.

I was hoping for more than that, even. HOWEVER if I'm traversing that gap coming up to 200K miles during 2021-2022 and there aren't any feasible solutions for battery replacement established that's hanging it out there hardcore pioneering. And pioneers tend to get shot, bit by snakes, and face other unpleasantness.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You would just scrap the car. The repair cost will exceed the value of the car. Similar to an ICE car needed a new engine outside of warranty.

An ICEV that needs a new engine gets a salvage engine.
It's when the ICEV needs a new body that you scrap it and use the engine or engine parts in something else.

 

[chronopc]

I was hoping for more than that, even. HOWEVER if I'm traversing that gap coming up to 200K miles during 2021-2022 and there aren't any feasible solutions for battery replacement established that's hanging it out there hardcore pioneering. And pioneers tend to get shot, bit by snakes, and face other unpleasantness.

I'm hoping for more too. There are S and X that have gone well over 200k miles. So I like my chances.

 

[glide]

You can pay to replace it or buy a new car.

Was this a serious question?

 

[glide]

An ICEV that needs a new engine gets a salvage engine.
It's when the ICEV needs a new body that you scrap it and use the engine or engine parts in something else.

That is completely false. You are not issued a salvage title for replacing an engine.

 

[MXWing]

Aftermarket, but very pricey - and this is before arranging to get my car to North Carolina from CA.

You can pay to replace it or buy a new car.

Was this a serious question?

Yes its a serious question, and what is the cost to replace it? Buying a new car as an alternative is the no *sugar* sherlock, captain obvious response.

 

[Powered By Jay]

OP; you will be able to replace the battery later on. You will either get one from Tesla or get one second-hand from a salvaged Tesla.

Or an aftermarket battery from a third party.
Example: Hybrid Industries Now Offering Third-Party Nissan LEAF Battery Pack Upgrades — 160 Miles Per Charge For $6500

 

[Jedi2155]

I haven't given it a lot of thought but I expect a gut-check moment when my odometer rolls over 90,000 miles. I'll need to look around and do a serious assessment at that point. If I need to get out, to get the vehicle to someone that'll put miles on slower but still get a lot of years out of it, or if I'm going to sail into the Land of Dragons.

So all this talk about battery replacements makes two major assumptions:

1. Your pack has failed and has had serious capacity loss (significantly degraded module affecting pack performance).
2. Your range has dropped below your acceptable criteria.

In most normal conditions neither of the above should occur to any owner by simply hitting 8 years or 200,000 miles. Some type of abuse or defect would have to happen for condition #1 to occur. For condition #2, would you really pay $8-15,000 for 10% more range? for 20%?

I'm privately hoping that I would not NEED a pack replacement for the life of the vehicle unless it was a warrantied replacement near end of warranty period (please?). If the warranty period does end, then I'm likely going to tough out the battery pack wear and tear as I kind of pre-bought into it by buying an LR pack vs. MR etc.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That is completely false. You are not issued a salvage title for replacing an engine.

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't referring to salvage certificate/titles. I mean getting an engine from a car with a wrecked body.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Aftermarket, but very pricey - and this is before arranging to get my car to North Carolina from CA.

View attachment 375250

To get your car to NC? So it is $14K installed?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So all this talk about battery replacements makes two major assumptions:

1. Your pack has failed and has had serious capacity loss (significantly degraded module affecting pack performance).
2. Your range has dropped below your acceptable criteria.

In most normal conditions neither of the above should occur to any owner by simply hitting 8 years or 200,000 miles. Some type of abuse or defect would have to happen for condition #1 to occur. For condition #2, would you really pay $8-15,000 for 10% more range? for 20%?

I'm privately hoping that I would not NEED a pack replacement for the life of the vehicle unless it was a warrantied replacement near end of warranty period (please?). If the warranty period does end, then I'm likely going to tough out the battery pack wear and tear as I kind of pre-bought into it by buying an LR pack vs. MR etc.

The need for a new battery has happened to a good number of Prius owners out of warranty.

I suspect that Tesla will charge you through the nose, just as Toyota does with its hybrid batteries. They don't want to sell you one. They want you to buy a new car.

 

[mspohr]

What happens next?

I tried doing a search on the Model S forums but my Google-fu seems weak and couldn't locate satisfactory responses.

Could you buy a replacement pack AND would it ever make any sense? Tesla prefers a new sale as would anyone else.

We won't know for sure until someone crosses that bridge but I wonder if there is an S owner that could offer guidance in this regard?

Roadster Battery Pack purchases would not be a useful data set as the circulation is practically nil.

My hunch to cover Tesla's overhead, it could be $200/kW + inflation so that would put the cost at $15,000 + inflation despite Tesla being at $100/kW or possibly less at that point.

Assuming the above service is offered?


TLDR - is keeping my Model 3 for 10-15 years an exercise in disillusion?

You can't find information because it doesn't happen. There have been many Model S and X owners who have "crossed that bridge". Model S and Model X batteries have gone hundreds of thousands of miles and have only minimal degradation.

I think there are many more pressing problems to worry about such as climate change. My "guidance" is to relax and enjoy your car... for many years.