75KWh MS soon?

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I just noticed the Model X70D now is the X75D with a small price increase. Could the S70D soon be upgraded to S75D?

Here is my take:
1) Tesla is already putting the 75KWh battery in new new Model S 70/D models, but software limiting it to 70KWh for now. Once the software is finalized, they will start selling the S70/D as S75/D and of course increase the price. Current S70/D owners will never see the full 75KWh but just have a slight better pack than the older S70/D owners.

2) Tesla is trying to sell up all the left over 70KWh batteries and once they are out, they will phase the 70KWh battery out just like the transition from 85KWh battery to 90KWh battery.

What do you think?

I'll add a third.

3) No changes to the packs. Tesla will make a 70KWh pack for the model and a 75KWh pack for the Model X.

 

[sandpiper]

They're probably ramping up a new production line that produces the cells that are going into 75s. The don't yet have the capacity to feed the S line, and so it goes to the X first.

Once they get the line up to speed, the new cell will go into the S-75, X95 or 100 and S95 or 100.

 

[AWDtsla]

Maybe as well just change the number from 70 to 75 and call it a day, given what the usable capacities of 85 and 90 are.

I wouldn't bank on the Model X numbers until somebody has hard data on what pack was actually delivered.

 

[xG35]

Lets say 2016 forecast was 85,000 cars..
Lets say 60,000, Model S... that 165 per day rolling off the assembly belt..

If there is 7 days of inventory at any time, there will be 1150 of them... Just in time delivery will probably put them at max 2 weeks of inventory... So it is happening when the facelift shifts.. or it is not happening at all.

 

[wdolson]

It looks to me they are face-lifting the Model S in stages as they run out of older parts. In March they debuts new standard wheels, in April it was several changes, all things the Model X has, they upgraded the X70D to 75 the same day, and there were rumors other changes merging the S and X that weren't in the April changes. I think it's quite possible we'll get some more changes in May as more of the old parts get low. I expect the S70 will become the S75 at that point.

 

[GSP]

Since the first 75 kWh packs will be delivered in the Model X this summer, I do not expect to see the Model S upgraded to 75 kWh until later in the year. Perhaps next year, if 75 kWh supplies are limited to the X until the gigafactory ramps up production.

Whatever the timing is, Tesla might introduce the 100 kWh pack at the same time.

GSP

 

[MostlyStock]

The 75 kWh pack is likely a 70 kWh pack that uses the cells from the 90 kWh pack. The Model S 70 doesn't need the additional range of a 75 kWh pack unlike the base Model X. If Tesla charges an additional $3000 for the 75 kWh pack like the Model X that would likely hurt Model S sales in two different ways. Some potential 90D buyers would just order a 75D (less money for Tesla). Also assuming they dropped the 70 kWh pack at the same time some buyers might just wait for the Model 3 due to the extra cost. The best evidence is that wk057 found the v7.1 (2.16.17) Model S firmware removed the 75D badge. Seeing how they left the 100D badge I think the 75 kWh pack isn't coming soon for the Model S.

Firmware v7.1 (2.16.17) - Some Notes | wk057's SkieNET

 

[Uncle Paul]

Tesla is constantly improving their cars.

Model X weighs more than the S, and going to a slightly larger capacity battery will bring more parity to their ranges.

Model 70 X has experienced some delays, and giving early orders a nice, unexpected bonus. Raising the prices on new orders will give value to the earlier orders and encourage them to wait a little longer for their cars.

If they have limited supplies of the 75 battery pack, it makes more sense to put it into the X's first.

 

[WATTS-UP]

I'm waiting for the 125KVA pack. picking up 5 or 10 miles per pack update doesn't help me. Double the range, and i'll get in line for a battery replacement.

 

[30seconds]

Since the first 75 kWh packs will be delivered in the Model X this summer, I do not expect to see the Model S upgraded to 75 kWh until later in the year. Perhaps next year, if 75 kWh supplies are limited to the X until the gigafactory ramps up production.

Whatever the timing is, Tesla might introduce the 100 kWh pack at the same time.

GSP

It took the a few years to go from 85 to 90. What is advantage of adding the 100 so soon?

 

[GSP]

....... What is advantage of adding the 100 so soon?

If Telsa releases the 100 kWh at the same time as they replace the 70 with 75 kWh, then there still will be a meaningful range increase for owners that buy the big battery model. Otherwise, the 75 starts to look more attractive for the price than its bigger brother.

Who knows what Tesla will do? The above was just my line of reasoning.

GSP

 

[WATTS-UP]

When the 125K battery is finally out any ideas on cost with or without core.

 

[valkeriefire]

I don't think you'll see a 125kw battery for at least 3 years. Probably longer. Tesla stated 5% battery improvements per year, so if a 100kw comes out later this year (which may not happen) you're looking at 4-5 more years to get to a 125kw.

Elon Musk: "On average, we expect to increase pack capacity by roughly 5% per year." That's very interesting. 100kWh in 2017? | Tesla Motors

 

[WATTS-UP]

That's Ok, I'm not getting rid of my S. It should take at least 5 to 6 years before my battery is at 80%.

 

[wdolson]

There has been talk that when Tesla starts making the new form factor batteries at the GF, they will be able to increase the density of the energy in the pack by about 30% right from the start. That talk was back when the 85 KWH pack was the largest and if true would mean an increase to around 110 KWh. It's possible they didn't get the density they thought they would with the new geometry and are only going to get to about 100 KWh, which will be the new top size.

Improvements in battery chemistry has a lot more to do with the pace of technological advances rather than Tesla marketing. When Tesla came out with the 90KWh pack, Elon Musk predicted they would be increasing battery chemistry about 5% a year, but that was just a straight line prediction based on past advances, but the line is far from straight, the technology advances by fits and starts rather than steady progress.

I suspect Panasonic wants to discontinue production of the old chemistry cells that may be in the 70 KWH pack and both want to standardize on one battery chemistry. There are no plans to build the X 75 until this summer, that may be when they are planning to start production on the new battery geometry at the GF and the 100 may be introduced at that time too.

 

[WATTS-UP]

I think 30% is a bit much within a year or two. Form start of Tesla production and I’ll call that 2010 we have seen an increase in battery size. We could see a 110 battery SOON (Tesla soon). I do believe that Tesla already has the 110/120K battery, they like all auto manufactures hold back a little on new developments and release that product when the time is right.

Tesla can not or should not bring out a 100 or 110 battery anytime soon. It would be smart for them to have say three battery’s. The 70/75 for the 3 the 100/110 for the X and make the top of the line the S with a 125+.

I would like to see Tesla fix some of the production problems, adjustable seat belts, the leak from the sun roof, the wind noise on the drivers side, how about so more sound deadening in the back. General fit and finish is good but can be improved. Less plastic on the inside and out side would be a good start. Leave the nose cone the way it was on the S that is the signature of a TESLA don’t screw with it, it looks great. Stop with the techie stuff and fix the problems that exist.

 

[wdolson]

It may be that Tesla has laboratory quantities of batteries that could make up a 110 KWh battery pack now, but it would be a chemistry that isn't ready for production. Batteries have so many variables that any new battery chemistry requires a lot of testing to make sure a promising new chemistry is going to work. It would be a disaster for Tesla to rush a battery into production that would make a 110 or even 125K battery pack only to discover the battery degrades dramatically after six months of regular use.

That's the case with high silicon Li-ion batteries. The silicon expands a lot when the battery is charged and while it allows the battery to hold a lot more energy than Li-ion chemistries currently in use, it also means the battery rips itself apart from expanding and contracting after a relative handful of charges.

I don't think Tesla is holding back once they determine a battery chemistry is a good match for their application and it's better than what they have. Any delays are the logistics required bringing a new chemistry into full production.

Tesla has set out to destroy all the arguments against electric cars, but the one area where they have been unable to completely destroy the criticisms is surrounding batteries: batteries are much bigger and heavier than gasoline, their energy density is currently about 1/33 gasoline, the range of the best EV in the world (the S90D) is still below almost every ICE out there, they take longer to "fill up" than an ICE, and batteries are still very expensive compared to ICE.

Superchargers have helped weaken some of these arguments, and the energy density is offset a bit by the much higher efficiency, but they are drawbacks a critic can still point to. The faster Tesla can destroy the weaknesses in battery tech the sooner the arguments for ICE will be eliminated. JB Straubel and Elon Musk have both made comments that indicate they are somewhat frustrated with the slow pace of battery evolution. They both accept it and know they need to work around it, but I can tell they are both a little frustrated.

IMO, tThe only way Tesla is holding back on battery tech is being prudent new chemistries are a good thing for their cars and they won't turn into a problem.

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I guess we have the right answer now.

It seems like a mixed of 1) and 2) where tesla is getting rid of the old packs as well as have a few cars with the 75KWh pack but software limiting it to 70KWh.

 

[Lloyd]

Article about 75kWh Model S

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) To Introduce 75kWh Version Of The Model S

 

[Ciaopec]

I just noticed the Model X70D now is the X75D with a small price increase. Could the S70D soon be upgraded to S75D?

Here is my take:
1) Tesla is already putting the 75KWh battery in new new Model S 70/D models, but software limiting it to 70KWh for now. Once the software is finalized, they will start selling the S70/D as S75/D and of course increase the price. Current S70/D owners will never see the full 75KWh but just have a slight better pack than the older S70/D owners.

2) Tesla is trying to sell up all the left over 70KWh batteries and once they are out, they will phase the 70KWh battery out just like the transition from 85KWh battery to 90KWh battery.

What do you think?

I'll add a third.

3) No changes to the packs. Tesla will make a 70KWh pack for the model and a 75KWh pack for the Model X.

Perhaps this answers your question: Tesla’s ‘upgradable’ battery may change the way we buy cars