Andrej Karpathy is leaving Tesla. Bad news for FSD ?

[Dilly]

We’ll, it’s unlikely to be good news!

Tesla loses its head of AI and vision Andrej Karpathy – a big loss for the Autopilot team — Electrek

Andrej Karpathy, senior director in charge of AI and computer vision at Tesla, announced that he is leaving the automaker. It is a big loss for Tesla’s Autopilot team and self-driving effort.

apple.news

 

[UkNorthampton]

Jim Keller doesn't stick around - he moves to next interesting project when bulk of work is complete. Seems common to highly curious & capable people. "Plants" (ideas) rather than "Completer/Finishers"

Karpathy's longest stint was Tesla, seems to be leaving on amicable terms, might be back (Arnie's voice).

 

[NewbieT]

Hasn’t he baiscally been on leave I.e. out of the loop for quite a while (March)?

 

[UkNorthampton]

I think this post is useful...

"Doesn't prove FSD is near or far" is probably the right conclusion, just a 35 year old, nice, rich, clever, curious person

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Yahoo just now in the premarket: These are the first "editor picked" news-articles you will see under the autoplaying videos.. actual news (kaparthy leaving, kansas panasonic plant, etc.) are 1 page further scrolling down .. Nothing to see here. No agenda .. move along. Edit: so much FUD...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[hgmichna]

One possible interpretation is that Karpathy has followed a certain development path, but lately noticed that it is not going to work as hoped. Perhaps he realized that full self-driving will take another 5 years or more, too far outside earlier in-house predictions and too far outside Elon Musks expectations.

We may never know.

 

[Jason71]

Does this mean my M3 won't be earning me money as a robo taxi by 2020 anymore?

 

[prabhu]

Nothing worse would happen to Tesla, even if they lose Elon Musk. People who think this is absurd should look at how Apple survived without Steve Jobs. Sometimes, a business built on solid principles can outlive the people.

 

[KennethS]

Does this mean my M3 won't be earning me money as a robo taxi by 2020 anymore?

Yours doesn't?

 

[bro1999]

Does this mean my M3 won't be earning me money as a robo taxi by 2020 anymore?

Still waiting to see a demo of the fully autonomous coast to coast drive Elon said would happen by the end of 2017.

 

[DM206433]

Nothing worse would happen to Tesla, even if they lose Elon Musk. People who think this is absurd should look at how Apple survived without Steve Jobs. Sometimes, a business built on solid principles can outlive the people.

In some ways I think Tesla would improve without Musk.

 

[Zilla91]

I, as someone who knows very little about AI, would have as much chance of making FSD a reality as him because it’s vapourware, so it makes no real difference if he’s there or not.

 

[strider]

Nothing worse would happen to Tesla, even if they lose Elon Musk. People who think this is absurd should look at how Apple survived without Steve Jobs. Sometimes, a business built on solid principles can outlive the people.

Apple has certainly survived with highly effective management. But they have not created a single all-new/revolutionary product since Steve died. One could give them half a point for the Apple Watch but it's pretty obvious (tiny iPhone on your wrist) and the project was likely started by Jobs before he died.

I think Tesla will follow the same path if/when Musk leaves. They will be a company that provides good products for their customers and good value for shareholders. As @whatstevedid says, many things will likely improve w/o Musk. Bringing in a management team with actual manufacturing experience will improve things like communication, parts availability, logistics, etc.

But the outside the box innovation will end, as it has at Apple.

 

[DeejUK]

With a very limited understanding of things, I don't think it's going to make much difference. The evidence we've seen over the last few years gives me little confidence that FSD is going to be achieved any time soon, regardless of which AI superstars they get involved.

Going off topic, I do wonder whether Elon has fallen into a trap that he can't get out of. Make bold claims (eg Model 3), have some success. Make bolder claims (FSD, Semi, Roadster, Cybertruck, distributed power supplier...), get lots of investment, see share price soar. Bolder claims fail to materialise, and if he admits that, then the share price will tank and morale will worsen, causing an exodus and making a downward spiral. So he falls back on what's worked thus far, making even bolder claims (humanoid AI-driven robots, Neuralink codswallop like "we can talk without words") and trying to distract attention away from the failures. Kinda like an addicted gambler in out of their depth: "if this next bet comes off, we'll be clear!"

 

[Casss]

Apple has certainly survived with highly effective management. But they have not created a single all-new/revolutionary product since Steve died. One could give them half a point for the Apple Watch but it's pretty obvious (tiny iPhone on your wrist) and the project was likely started by Jobs before he died.

I think Tesla will follow the same path if/when Musk leaves. They will be a company that provides good products for their customers and good value for shareholders. As @whatstevedid says, many things will likely improve w/o Musk. Bringing in a management team with actual manufacturing experience will improve things like communication, parts availability, logistics, etc.

But the outside the box innovation will end, as it has at Apple.

Agree completely, this is a valid concern because it spells turbulence if it isn't course-corrected.

It's Jobs who identified two main archetypes for dominating tech businesses:

• Product first (Apple)
• Marketing / "bean counting" first (as he called it I believe) (IBM)

When the business pivots to the latter, either by board direction or 'product-first brain drain', the rest of the brilliant product innovators either get pushed out or put their feet up and semi-retire.

So for those who are invested in Tesla financially or their product mission, it's a valid concern.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Nothing worse would happen to Tesla, even if they lose Elon Musk. People who think this is absurd should look at how Apple survived without Steve Jobs. Sometimes, a business built on solid principles can outlive the people.

Actually Apple very nearly died the first time Jobs left (in the 1980's). The company floundered without his innovation and leadership, and they were forced to invite him back to save the thing, which he did by rapidly bringing out the iMac, followed by iPod, iPad, and iPhone.

Much more recently, after being sick for a decade, Jobs finally did die... and with a decade of advance planning Apple has managed to continue with financial success, but really hasn't made anything new. Today's iPhone is almost indistinguishable from the one being made 6 years ago. Same with the macs - everything is just a bit thinner, a bit faster, a bit more screen resolution.

 

[Casss]

Actually Apple very nearly died the first time Jobs left (in the 1980's). The company floundered without his innovation and leadership, and they were forced to invite him back to save the thing, which he did by rapidly bringing out the iMac, followed by iPod, iPad, and iPhone.

Much more recently, after being sick for a decade, Jobs finally did die... and with a decade of advance planning Apple has managed to continue with financial success, but really hasn't made anything new. Today's iPhone is almost indistinguishable from the one being made 6 years ago. Same with the macs - everything is just a bit thinner, a bit faster, a bit more screen resolution.

Apple Watch.

But Ives is gone now too and he is the one who executed on Jobs' vision.

 

[Kenners]

We’ll, it’s unlikely to be good news!

Tesla loses its head of AI and vision Andrej Karpathy – a big loss for the Autopilot team — Electrek

Andrej Karpathy, senior director in charge of AI and computer vision at Tesla, announced that he is leaving the automaker. It is a big loss for Tesla’s Autopilot team and self-driving effort.

apple.news

Can’t be any worse than the current status of complete waste of money!

 

[Durzel]

It's tough to argue that Apple hasn't been wildly successful in terms of profits under Cook, though. Nowhere near as innovative, sure, but the markets were more than happy when Cook took over (in spite of people pronoucing Apple as being doomed post-Steve) as he was seen as a safe pair of hands as Apple's prime bean counter.

Relative to Tesla, however, Apple have very much leant into their whole ecosystem of connected products. Even if you're a bit annoyed that you don't have the customisation that you get with Android, the fact your Apple Watch, iPhone and MacBook Pro all play together nicely probably tips it.

Tesla don't really have that. All they have in terms of the brand is whatever residual goodwill and aspirational value it has, and Musk himself. I don't see a "Cook takes over and makes the company even more profitable" situation occuring with Tesla.

I guess the question then becomes how much of TSLA share price is baked in expectations of the autonomous future and Musk's Tony Stark like persona, vs actual profitability and future prospects? I actually think Tesla is really vulnerable here. They have a superior battery & motor efficiency technology, and the UX is slick, but other manufacturers build cars a lot better, with more features - particularly ones that customers take for granted nowadays (e.g. automatic headlights, matrix lights, etc). I think it'll probably take only a couple more iterations of Ioniqs and Polestars etc for them to be superior in all other respects than simply the residual brand value. Even Tesla's autonomous features aren't particularly revolutionary anymore (particularly in Europe).

 

[Bouba]

Karpathy was already on sabbatical....I am sure he is now a rich man, assuming he got some stock options, and not everyone is motivated by money once they have a lot. It probably has nothing to do with FSD, regardless if he sees it as a success or failure.
Once his batteries are restored he might be open to job offers but FSD will continue to develop...exciting some and bitterly upsetting others

 

[Dilly]

I think we would all agree that, if every AP drive was the quietly uneventful drive it should be, we would all be happy bunnies.
If that worked, Tesla might just focus on what lesser aids could be added.