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Another of my predictive polls: FSD will or will not be achieved with "vision only". VOTE NOW!

Do you believe Elon is telling the truth when he says FSD will be fully solved with Vision only?

  • Yes, vision only is the way to solve the problem. NO lidar/radar needed. JUST Vision.

    Votes: 64 37.9%
  • No. More than just vision technology will be needed to solve the problem.

    Votes: 105 62.1%

  • Total voters
    169
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Lidar/radar doesn't read speed limit signs like a human can, but a camera should be able to easily. In California, an unposted speed limit means use the "basic speed law" which currently is 55mph or safe for conditions (fog/rain etc). Lacking any other valid source, the driver would have to input it.
And how, exactly do you input it? The “basic speed law” (which is the same in most states) is not followed by the current version. While we have few speed signs around here, the default on my car is either 25 or 35 on 55 mph unposted roads. When traveling out of a small town around here there is a 55 mph sign, which the car recognizes, starts to accelerate, and within 5 seconds returns back to 35. Tesla service says that it is the map data overriding the sign and that the car will always choose the slower speed for “safety”. Not sure how safe it is to travel 20mph slower than a speed limit when all other traffic is at least 5 over. It does piss off not just me, but any drivers behind me as well. Great ad for Tesla. I would imagine that where tesla is popular in California, lots has been done to make it sorta work, but in less populated areas, no luck. That coast to coast trip he used to brag about to sell this will take many weeks.
 
And how, exactly do you input it? The “basic speed law” (which is the same in most states) is not followed by the current version. While we have few speed signs around here, the default on my car is either 25 or 35 on 55 mph unposted roads. When traveling out of a small town around here there is a 55 mph sign, which the car recognizes, starts to accelerate, and within 5 seconds returns back to 35. Tesla service says that it is the map data overriding the sign and that the car will always choose the slower speed for “safety”. Not sure how safe it is to travel 20mph slower than a speed limit when all other traffic is at least 5 over. It does piss off not just me, but any drivers behind me as well. Great ad for Tesla. I would imagine that where tesla is popular in California, lots has been done to make it sorta work, but in less populated areas, no luck. That coast to coast trip he used to brag about to sell this will take many weeks.

Yes, you live in an outlier area, and sorry to say its going to take some time to fill in the gaps.
 
As defined by our lord and savior Elon Musk: La to NYC with zero human input/zero human intervention

Ready, set, vote!
You’re failing to account for the exponential improvement that will be enabled any day now by Dojo and auto-labeling. FSD is nearly there; just one phase of exponential improvement and this trip will be no problem.
 
As defined by our lord and savior Elon Musk: La to NYC with zero human input/zero human intervention

Elon_Musk_Illuminidol_Celebrity_Prayer_Candle_9b280fe3-809f-4173-a196-cdcffd768a0b_grande.jpg


I have these all around my garage
 
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That can definitely be done with HW3. It might even be possible with the current build if try enough times.
Not quite. Even as a contrived stunt they still need to solve the charging. I’ll grant them the robo charging could be solved and allow a human to plug and unplug the supercharger cables For this test. However, current build won’t take you to a specific parking place nor allow driving to start from a parked position. If you kluged that in and picked just the right charger and start finish locations, then maybe with enough tries.
 
Not quite. Even as a contrived stunt they still need to solve the charging. I’ll grant them the robo charging could be solved and allow a human to plug and unplug the supercharger cables For this test. However, current build won’t take you to a specific parking place nor allow driving to start from a parked position. If you kluged that in and picked just the right charger and start finish locations, then maybe with enough tries.
Yeah, I forgot about charging. However Smart Summon might be able to get you into a spot with enough attempts!

But yeah I forgot that the NY to LA prediction was actually summoning across the country.
 
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Remember, L5 means manufacture takes legal responsibility for actions of car, not a human. Zero chances Tesla will take that on with the current vision sensors, as when the car really hurts someone outside the car, and it will, they have to pay. That ain't gonna happen.
 
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i want to vote for a different option: Vision only might be able to solve it, but only with many more cameras of higher resolution and overlapping fields of view to enable direct stereo or trinary distance estimation from parallax.

I think stereo vision plus imaging radar is the best, economical choice.
 
With those limitations, Ii should be obvious that "vision-only" is not the smart approach to achieve safe and reliable driverless everywhere. And Tesla's hardware of only 8 1.2 MP cameras and a low end computer, will NOT achieve safe and reliable driverless everywhere. So yeah, Elon was full of BS when he claimed AP2 was "L5 capable".

Now, if the goal is a driver assist, vision-only is perfectly fine since you have a human driver as back-up if the system makes a mistake.

I think Tesla will get around this by keeping driver supervision for FSD. So Tesla will put out a driver assist that does "door to door" and requires driver supervision but they call it "Full Self-Driving" so they can technically say that they achieved FSD with vision-only. But it won't be what most people consider true FSD.

Source:
Oh yes lidar is super important did you know Waymo had 60 incidents in the latest report of NTSHA and Cruise with lidars and radar stop working 4 times in 3 months because all this is connected to a center and stop working if no connection the goal of Tesla is the car continue to drive to safest place not stuck in middle of an intersection in case of no map working or connexion lost from Tesla. No for Today but for the future.