Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

[maoing]

Is the note published after hour?

Mr. Lovallo is out with yet another note on TSLA, predicting gloom and doom due to weak demand and exposure to "daunting liability" due to resale value guarantee in European markets and Japan.
Digest from StreetInsider.com:

 

[vgrinshpun]

Is the note published after hour?

I don't know when BOA issued the note, but StreetInsider.com
published the digest at 3:55pm

 

[v12 to 12v]

Mr. Lovallo is out with yet another note on TSLA, predicting gloom and doom due to weak demand and exposure to "daunting liability" due to resale value guarantee in European markets and Japan.
Digest from StreetInsider.com:

It is evident that he missed last quarter's conference call.

 

[Curt Renz]

Mr. Lovallo is out with yet another note on TSLA, predicting gloom and doom due to weak demand and exposure to "daunting liability" due to resale value guarantee in European markets and Japan.
Digest from StreetInsider.com:

One must wonder who Lovallo considers to be the audience for his constant barrage of Tesla Motors negativism. He kept his Bank of America Merrill Lynch clients away from the huge Tesla share price run-up, so they and his bosses cannot be too happy. If they were listening to him all along, then none of them got into TSLA. So who is he telling to get out?

 

[aznt1217]

One must wonder who Lovallo considers to be the audience for his constant barrage of Tesla Motors negativism. He kept his Bank of America Merrill Lynch clients away from the huge Tesla share price run-up, so they and his bosses cannot be too happy. If they were listening to him all along, then none of them got into TSLA. So who is he telling to get out?

One must wonder how a person who clearly lacks reading comprehension and common sense works at an investment bank.

 

[AudubonB]

Oh dear. I guess you never worked at an investment bank.

 

[MikeC]

Posted by jhm at 8 am today: "My near-term prediction is that Tesla's recently announced Resale Value Guarantee in Europe will soon become a target for FUD reports." Maybe we need a "Preemptive FUD" thread.

Not bad, jhm! Lovallo is a joke. And we know he reads TMC, so he knows we know he's a joke. Hmm, trolling TMC looking for material to spin, reminds me of the SeekingAlpha bears.

His motivation may be as simple as trying to self-fulfill his prophecy just to get out of the bottom 0.01% of analysts - literally. He's #3502 out of 3530. That's good for zero stars and an average return of -43.9%. https://www.tipranks.com/experts/john-lovallo

 

[cctv]

He knows that we know that he knows that we know that he is a joke === He knew he is a joke He should have lost his job based on performance review

Put that aside, market is usually not logical; was not, is not, and will seldom be. Let's dance with MM.

Hope I am not saying something inappropriate.

Posted by jhm at 8 am today: "My near-term prediction is that Tesla's recently announced Resale Value Guarantee in Europe will soon become a target for FUD reports." Maybe we need a "Preemptive FUD" thread.

Not bad, jhm! Lovallo is a joke. And we know he reads TMC, so he knows we know he's a joke. Hmm, trolling TMC looking for material to spin, reminds me of the SeekingAlpha bears.

His motivation may be as simple as trying to self-fulfill his prophecy just to get out of the bottom 0.01% of analysts - literally. He's #3502 out of 3530. That's good for zero stars and an average return of -43.9%.

 

[SteveG3]

It is amusing that Lovallo is using TMC as a source.

As to his job performance, I suspect that he has been doing what he was hired to do.

Perhaps after you pay a $100 million fine for publicly giving top ratings to stocks you privately call a "piece of crap," you stop that and look for something new... how about putting a sell and $65 price target on a stock trading at $200 which you think is worth $250+.

brief summary of Merrill Lynch's old playbook,

http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/wallstreet.html

(I do realize its been a decade+, the point is just that incompetence is clearly not the only possible explanation of Lovallo's notes, the Merrill Lynch part may just be a coincidence).

 

[doggusfluffy]

I'm not sure which thread to post this. Feel free to move it.

I have been surprised not that people with a vested interest are trying to fling mud, only how effective the flying BS has been.

Why Tesla Is Not Cost-Efficient for Apple - Bloomberg Business

 

[Causalien]

Finally gets to fly today. Life is looking good!!! TSLA stock should follow.

Hint to all. Check supply chain.

Disclaimer: This particular post is intended for everyone but Mr. Lovallo and the firm he works at currently (Merill Lynch). Mr Lovallo and the firm he works for is forbidden from quoting, misquoting, paraphrasing, paroding, analyzing and misinterpreting this post.

 

[mitch672]

What do people think? Do research notes from Mr Lovallo have much of an impact on price movements or would his work be better discussed within the FUD thread?

@doggusfluffy, I moved your post into the Apple thread. Apple: Rumors of EV to Challenge Tesla or Buying Tesla - Page 29

absolutley, I make ALL of my investment decisions using the bottom %1 of analysts

 

[Drax7]

Lovallos clients are the hedge funds that throw him lots of business, and they are mostly short.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Disagree. No-one has an obligation nor is there a requirement to read anyone else's posts; if there was an obligation to share reasoning then the number of posts on TMC would be halved overnight.

I am not sure what are you disagreeing with - I did not post, nor suggested that anybody has any obligation to read any posts.

- - - Updated - - -

In my opinion you're focusing on one point and assuming it's a deliberate mis-read of the situation by the author. I read it to be useful commentary in some parts and uneducated in others; a sound piece of journalism would hopefully have had better research but the truth is that takes time and this short piece is clearly a filler story. Serious investors won't take stories like this as a trigger to buy or sell stock so I'm always mildly surprised why folks here get so worked up about these things.

Seeing as you asked for my view I'm going to dissect the article but please understand that I don't intend to enter a circular debate with anyone and I'm quite happy to have different opinions....

Link: tesla-posts-short-waiting-time-for-upscale-p85d-model-s

Firstly, there's been some comment about the headline, true it's changed a couple of times but that also isn't unusual in any field of online journalism; it's about building clicks not necessarily agenda and more clicks equals more revenue.

That headline doesn't look like FUD to me; it's a statement of fact confirmed by Tesla that they are prioritizing the top end cars. BTW, that also happens to be good business sense and as an investor I appreciate that.


This photo caption isn't bad news either, considering that Tesla has been saying in the past that they were production constrained and not demand constrained; it can easily be read that supply is getting stronger.

The first three paragraphs are fact that are apparently confirmed by Tesla in the fourth paragraph.


This paragraph (after the first sentence there) makes little sense either way; the author says that Tesla confirmed they're prioritizing but then assumes that questions demand. It also ignores production efficiencies and capacity expansion but it's also possible that the author just didn't do his homework for this filler piece.


Folks may jump on that statement about "weaker-than-expected" demand, but it also reads as Tesla confirmed it. On the other hand though the following paragraph provided some balance:


Then the next paragraph speaks purely to Tesla's reporting and I doubt there's an investor on this board who wouldn't like more information:

What follows then is reasonable discussion about what Tesla's numbers might be and how inventory is really measured; that subject has also been discussed on TMC.

A nice compliment to the car and favorable comparison to Porsche and Ferrari follows and the piece ends with a statement that isn't good or bad, it just reflects what the situation is:

Which is one of the many reasons TSLA is a volatile stock.

-------

So overall, sure there's some homework lacking but I think there is also room to question that this was an intentional piece of FUD. The bulls may assume that there's an intentional implication of poor demand while the bears might argue that the focus is on a lack of true numbers and the difficulties of forecasting a volatile share price. On balance I personally can't get too excited about the article one way or the other; I do think that we should be critical enough to question things from all angles and not just be boosters talking up all the positives and poo-poohing negatives.

Thank you for taking the time to explain your reading of the article.

Although we have very different opinions on the subject, I now understand your perspective better.

 

[NigelM]

I am not sure what are you disagreeing with - I did not post, nor suggested that anybody has any obligation to read any posts.

Eh, you said that members linking articles (should) have an obligation to share their reasoning. I disagreed wit that and stated that nor is there a requirement to read those posts. In any case you also wanted my reasoning, which I gave separately when I had time.

 

[FredTMC]

Finally gets to fly today. Life is looking good!!! TSLA stock should follow.

Hint to all. Check supply chain.

Disclaimer: This particular post is intended for everyone but Mr. Lovallo and the firm he works at currently (Merill Lynch). Mr Lovallo and the firm he works for is forbidden from quoting, misquoting, paraphrasing, paroding, analyzing and misinterpreting this post.

What about SC? RE panasonic?

 

[mejojo]

Interestingly, the article that started this splinter has since been edited to actually be a fairly decent piece, with most of the FUD-spin removed.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Interestingly, the article that started this splinter has since been edited to actually be a fairly decent piece, with most of the FUD-spin removed.

I noticed that too; what came across the wire to Curt is more "spun" than the first thing published in the WSJ, and the current WSJ article has been further edited. What are the odds that someone at the WSJ actually read this thread?

 

[aznt1217]

I noticed that too; what came across the wire to Curt is more "spun" than the first thing published in the WSJ, and the current WSJ article has been further edited. What are the odds that someone at the WSJ actually read this thread?

very high. I know for a fact.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Interestingly, the article that started this splinter has since been edited to actually be a fairly decent piece, with most of the FUD-spin removed.

The main falsehood, though, remained intact: implying that company was lying in their securities filing:

"A spokeswoman said the company has prioritized deliveries of the P85D. The short wait time—in the past year deliveries have been as long as three months—raises concerns about the strength of demand for Tesla’s pricey cars.
...
The company’s fourth quarter securities filing shows strong continued interest in its cars despite low gasoline prices. Wall Street analysts believe there is pent-up demand for Model S sedans. Last month, it said the order backlog included 10,000 deposits for its Model S and 20,000 for the Model X."


My take on this is that editor of the article behaved as a responsible adult focused on the mission at hand. He removed all the inconsequential sniping, leaving the main punch line intact.