Australian Model 3 Waiting Room

[Broony]

So there will be 13 days post shut down where they can only produce the model 3s? That looks incredibly promising

Shipping dates also updated, pushed back a day

 

[Broony]

Isn't this just some dudes on Twitter speculating in the same manner as us at a time when there was less info available? The stuff the second guy is saying we know isn't correct. From the last production cycle, we know they cut over to domestic production mode regardless of whether APAC cars are produced or not. The date was the trigger, likely as a result of scheduled transport trucks for domestic and also Chinese head honchos naturally favouring China (the head of Tesla China was quoted as saying they are striving for a bigger share of production for China recently). So if his scenario played out, we'd be delayed to the export production in the 4th quarter, not picked up in August. Plus historically export production is done by mid-late July.

Incidentally, where did Vedaprime's schedule come from? I know that's a ridiculous question to ask because Vedaprime requires money to help us suss this biz.

agreed, and we need to remember both these guys are competing for paying customers......

 

[Warragul]

Its possible that they will add features, as Tesla continuously upgrades its cars.

On another point, I ordered mid march 22 for my M3 LR. It was at the time that you got 19' wheels as standard. Now they are $2200. Does anyone have experience with asking Tesla to change the wheels to the standard 18' ones and give a refund on the 19's?

I changed the colour of my LR with 19" standard wheels order in that scenario, the ordered defaulted to the new standard (18") with no refund. The change of wheel size didn't bother me, but if I'd changed colour a week or so I would have avoided the price rise.

 

[Hoopyfrood]

agreed, and we need to remember both these guys are competing for paying customers......

I did some sleuthing. Teslike seems to be yet another dude proclaiming authority who has highly dubious analysis.

He has APAC orders being delivered with a wait time of 3 months and 6 months. We all know this is absolutely untrue.

He has APAC orders being produced in Freemont. Has anyone seen a Freemont VIN arrive at all?

And he has new orders, produced in Freemont being delivered in September!

New orders in Shanghai delivered in december with a wait time of 6 months!

And no LR produced for APAC at all.

None of this makes sense.

 

[Vedaprime]

The info came from

1. Memo from Tesla HR in Shanghai re July 1-4

2. Rolling shutdown came from Bloomberg quoting anonymous sources. So take that as it is, just one source on whether it is reliable.

 

[Abraxas]

He has APAC orders being produced in Freemont. Has anyone seen a Freemont VIN arrive at all?

I have absolutely no idea how reliable Teslike’s analysis is, but my understanding is that Fremont does build cars for export to South Korea and Taiwan. Those would fall under APAC.

 

[Vedaprime]

I have absolutely no idea how reliable Teslike’s analysis is, but my understanding is that Fremont does build cars for export to South Korea and Taiwan. Those would fall under APAC.

Troy Teslike is in the estimation game. He focuses on best guesses and projections so really is an opinion based assessment.

 

[Hoopyfrood]

I have absolutely no idea how reliable Teslike’s analysis is, but my understanding is that Fremont does build cars for export to South Korea and Taiwan. Those would fall under APAC.

Yeah plausible. But deliveries for APAC 3 months and 6 months?

 

[Hoopyfrood]

The info came from

1. Memo from Tesla HR in Shanghai re July 1-4

2. Rolling shutdown came from Bloomberg quoting anonymous sources. So take that as it is, just one source on whether it is reliable.

Thanks Vedaprime! This is useful. What are your best guesses for long term AU M3 orders?

 

[Vedaprime]

Thanks Vedaprime! This is useful. What are your best guesses for long term AU M3 orders?

I don’t do the guesses thing, especially when I get quoted so much in various media.

But I can comment on what we know.
We have some orders even going back to last year not filled yet.

Some people are cancelling their 3 order and moving to Y.

The backlog was growing even before Shanghai lockdowns even happened when over 4000 cars were being delivered here a quarter.

Some orders from January were delivered here, but not a huge number.

The rest of the orders from all of this year have not been delivered, so even taking the 3-Y conversions, it is still a very large number in the backlog.

The Shanghai 3 line will still be doing exports to Europe, so we are still competing for a slice of the production schedule.

If it is true these 3 line improvement take production from 5500 per week to 7700 per week we need to be allocated a slice of this extra production capacity to catch up.

Historically, priorities have been to Europe first.

Even if we received 6000 3 a quarter it is going to take months to reduce the backlog and satisfy new orders coming. This is why we are seeing estimation dates into next year.

On top of 3, Y are coming in, this creates some logistics challenges to be solved to handle this additional capacity when Tesla has centralised logistics.

 

[Hoopyfrood]

I don’t do the guesses thing, especially when I get quoted so much in various media.

But I can comment on what we know.
We have some orders even going back to last year not filled yet.

Some people are cancelling their 3 order and moving to Y.

The backlog was growing even before Shanghai lockdowns even happened when over 4000 cars were being delivered here a quarter.

Some orders from January were delivered here, but not a huge number.

The rest of the orders from all of this year have not been delivered, so even taking the 3-Y conversions, it is still a very large number in the backlog.

The Shanghai 3 line will still be doing exports to Europe, so we are still competing for a slice of the production schedule.

If it is true these 3 line improvement take production from 5500 per week to 7700 per week we need to be allocated a slice of this extra production capacity to catch up.

Historically, priorities have been to Europe first.

Even if we received 6000 3 a quarter it is going to take months to reduce the backlog and satisfy new orders coming. This is why we are seeing estimation dates into next year.

On top of 3, Y are coming in, this creates some logistics challenges to be solved to handle this additional capacity when Tesla has centralised logistics.

Wow! Thanks for the comprehensive response! This is probably the most pragmatic assessment i have come across and i agree* with all of it.

*also schooled by some of it. Ha!

 

[Broony]

I don’t do the guesses thing, especially when I get quoted so much in various media.

But I can comment on what we know.
We have some orders even going back to last year not filled yet.

Some people are cancelling their 3 order and moving to Y.

The backlog was growing even before Shanghai lockdowns even happened when over 4000 cars were being delivered here a quarter.

Some orders from January were delivered here, but not a huge number.

The rest of the orders from all of this year have not been delivered, so even taking the 3-Y conversions, it is still a very large number in the backlog.

The Shanghai 3 line will still be doing exports to Europe, so we are still competing for a slice of the production schedule.

If it is true these 3 line improvement take production from 5500 per week to 7700 per week we need to be allocated a slice of this extra production capacity to catch up.

Historically, priorities have been to Europe first.

Even if we received 6000 3 a quarter it is going to take months to reduce the backlog and satisfy new orders coming. This is why we are seeing estimation dates into next year.

On top of 3, Y are coming in, this creates some logistics challenges to be solved to handle this additional capacity when Tesla has centralised logistics.

there seems to be 2 July shipments, hopefully they are full of orders...

 

[Vedaprime]

Wow! Thanks for the comprehensive response! This is probably the most pragmatic assessment i have come across and i agree* with all of it.

*also schooled by some of it. Ha!

I do get a bit of criticism on this forum - which I rate as understandable, and I accept the service I run isn’t for everyone. I will jump in here from time to time with a constructive commentary when I can.

 

[Robdunc]

I do get a bit of criticism on this forum - which I rate as understandable, and I accept the service I run isn’t for everyone. I will jump in here from time to time with a constructive commentary when I can.

Much appreciated.

 

[Luddo]

I have no words lol

So glad I live in Queensland...

 

[Troy]

Fremont doesn't build any right-hand-drive Model 3 or Y. Therefore, they can't export Model 3/Y to Australia. The reason you see exports from Fremont to APAC in my tables is that Fremont still exports Model 3/Y to South Korea and Taiwan. This is actually well known because the shipping information is well known.

• South Korea gets its Model 3/Y from Fremont instead of Giga Shanghai because of high import tariffs. Importing from China makes the vehicles 8% more expensive.
• Taiwan gets its Model 3 (no Model Y in Taiwan yet) from the US because all imports from China are banned except food. The two countries are in a cold war. China claims that Taiwan should be part of China. They call it Greater China.

Model Y shipments to Australia:
Giga Shanghai is expected to stop all production between 1-4 July. Then they are expected to stop Model Y production between 5-17 July for production line upgrades. After that, I expect 21K units shipped to Europe and 6K within China. That should take 14 days. That means production for APAC should start on August 1st. It's likely that the first ship carrying Model Y from China to Australia will depart in the first half of August.

Model 3 shipments to Australia:
Giga Shanghai is expected to stop Model 3 production between 18 July and 6 August but they will have production for 13 days between 5-17 July. I expect them to ship 38K to Europe and 6K within China before they export to APAC. That 44K units would take 42 days to produce. They will have 13 production days in July, meaning 29 days more after 6 August are needed. That suggests production for APAC would start on 5 September. There is enough time to ship some Model 3s to Japan but I'm not sure there is enough time for Australia.

 

[Broony]

Fremont doesn't build any right-hand-drive Model 3 or Y. Therefore, they can't export Model 3/Y to Australia. The reason you see exports from Fremont to APAC in my tables is that Fremont still exports Model 3/Y to South Korea and Taiwan. This is actually well known because the shipping information is well known.

• South Korea gets its Model 3/Y from Fremont instead of Giga Shanghai because of high import tariffs. Importing from China makes the vehicles 8% more expensive.
• Taiwan gets its Model 3 (no Model Y in Taiwan yet) from the US because all imports from China are banned except food. The two countries are in a cold war. China claims that Taiwan should be part of China. They call it Greater China.

Model Y shipments to Australia:
Giga Shanghai is expected to stop all production between 1-4 July. Then they are expected to stop Model Y production between 5-17 July for production line upgrades. After that, I expect 21K units shipped to Europe and 6K within China. That should take 14 days. That means production for APAC should start on August 1st. It's likely that the first ship carrying Model Y from China to Australia will depart in the first half of August.

Model 3 shipments to Australia:
Giga Shanghai is expected to stop Model 3 production between 18 July and 6 August but they will have production for 13 days between 5-17 July. I expect them to ship 38K to Europe and 6K within China before they export to APAC. That 44K units would take 42 days to produce. They will have 13 production days in July, meaning 29 days more after 6 August are needed. That suggests production for APAC would start on 5 September. There is enough time to ship some Model 3s to Japan but I'm not sure there is enough time for Australi how many lines do they have

Fremont doesn't build any right-hand-drive Model 3 or Y. Therefore, they can't export Model 3/Y to Australia. The reason you see exports from Fremont to APAC in my tables is that Fremont still exports Model 3/Y to South Korea and Taiwan. This is actually well known because the shipping information is well known.

• South Korea gets its Model 3/Y from Fremont instead of Giga Shanghai because of high import tariffs. Importing from China makes the vehicles 8% more expensive.
• Taiwan gets its Model 3 (no Model Y in Taiwan yet) from the US because all imports from China are banned except food. The two countries are in a cold war. China claims that Taiwan should be part of China. They call it Greater China.

Model Y shipments to Australia:
Giga Shanghai is expected to stop all production between 1-4 July. Then they are expected to stop Model Y production between 5-17 July for production line upgrades. After that, I expect 21K units shipped to Europe and 6K within China. That should take 14 days. That means production for APAC should start on August 1st. It's likely that the first ship carrying Model Y from China to Australia will depart in the first half of August.

Model 3 shipments to Australia:
Giga Shanghai is expected to stop Model 3 production between 18 July and 6 August but they will have production for 13 days between 5-17 July. I expect them to ship 38K to Europe and 6K within China before they export to APAC. That 44K units would take 42 days to produce. They will have 13 production days in July, meaning 29 days more after 6 August are needed. That suggests production for APAC would start on 5 September. There is enough time to ship some Model 3s to Japan but I'm not sure there is enough time for Australia.

have you considered the scheduled shipping in your guestemate ?

 

[Skurfer]

I probably come across sometimes like I have a personal grievance against Vedaprime, but I don't know the guy, but my bullshitometer goes off the scale every time I read something from him and people fawn all over him like 18 year old groupies.

Basically tweets out it's a 4 day shutdown after news reports are already saying it's a 2 week shutdown. Everyone rubbishes news reports. Turns out it is 2 week or more shutdown depending on 3 or y line. Veda not so much backtracks but just tweets out now already known for at least a week if not more info.

Then comes on here an basically writes a reply with a summary of every single thing talked about here over the last 2 weeks like it is new stuff.

Use and pay for Vedaprime to track your car once you get a Vin if you can't be assed doing it yourself for free. Don't rely on him for anything else whatsoever. Bloke has no more clue than any random you bail up on the street and ask whether they know when your Tesla will be delivered. Can't remember last time he was right about anything he speculated on.

We know you're out to make money veda, but probably time you sick to your core business instead of pretending you're some in the know Tesla insider, and apart from a couple of cheerleaders such as Maximillian, you've been a joke for quite a while to many who have been in the waiting room for a while.

 

[steveGnome]

I probably come across sometimes like I have a personal grievance against Vedaprime, but I don't know the guy, but my bullshitometer goes off the scale every time I read something from him and people fawn all over him like 18 year old groupies.

Basically tweets out it's a 4 day shutdown after news reports are already saying it's a 2 week shutdown. Everyone rubbishes news reports. Turns out it is 2 week or more shutdown depending on 3 or y line. Veda not so much backtracks but just tweets out now already known for at least a week if not more info.

Then comes on here an basically writes a reply with a summary of every single thing talked about here over the last 2 weeks like it is new stuff.

Use and pay for Vedaprime to track your car once you get a Vin if you can't be asses doing it yourself for free. Don't rely on him for anything else whatsoever. Bloke has no more clue than any random you bail up on the street and ask whether they know when your Tesla will be delivered. Can't remember last time he was right about anything he speculated on.

We know you're out to make money veda, but probably time you sick to your core business instead of pretending you're some in the know Tesla insider.

sorry - all the ahole positions on the US high court are taken - but you'd certainly qualify.

 

[steveGnome]

I watch all these and other threads and like everyone else wonder when our dec/jan cars might be delivered. NO ONE actually knows, but like everything, you should listen to the various judgements, analyse the veracity of the claim and the legitimacy of the source, balance that against the expertise of the person making the claims and come to a conclusion as your best guess. It's not a religion people, you don't need to pick a side FFS. If you don't agree, then thats fine don't but save the effort of trying to evangelise your opinion over others.