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Buy the Model S Now or Wait 3-4 months?

Buy now or wait a 2-4 months?


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This thread reminds me of a saying. Or, well a rhetorical question. When is the best time to release the perfect product? Answer is never.

Looking more and more likely I'll be ordering a 75D soon. Going to look at some next week when they come to town. Just need to sell my current daily.
Beware the service center is in Nashville (not great at that), so it's not super convenient to drop by if you need something repaired.
 
...I love the free supercharging and my feelings for Tesla are warm and fuzzy The practical side of my brain coldly recognizes that the benefit is much more percieved than actual so it scorns my emotional side. The emotional side doesn’t care. Free travel, what’s better than that. Practically that free trip travel cost me $88,000. Emotionally that money is already gone, so it’s “yippee, I can drive to California free”. I won’t though. But I could. And that is why I feel warm and fuzzy, why it doesn’t cost Tesla much, and why I just don’t see it going away.

This is the conversation that happens in my head too. It is a very busy place.

I recently dumped my Model 3 reservation in favor of a 75D and couldn't be happier. "Imminent refresh" or not, I like the car just the way it is and want one now.
 
Beware the service center is in Nashville (not great at that), so it's not super convenient to drop by if you need something repaired.

There is a service rep here in Knoxville. Guy used to be I think the service manager at the local Audi/Porsche/Jaguar dealer.

Beware the service center is in Nashville (not great at that), so it's not super convenient to drop by if you need something repaired.

That is the one that is doing the remote test drive thing I'm going to. This news kind of stinks, as I go to Brentwood 2-3 times a year for my kids' swim meets, and had hoped I could take the Tesla, rather than swap with my wife when she can't go. I would definitely need to use their superchargers.
 
If you don't own a Tesla and are looking to replace your current car now or buy an additional one, then buy an MS or MX now: you'll be happy you did.

If you own an MS, even if it's a few years old and has higher miles, then it depends on whether that MS has been running well with no problems or few problems, or has had quality problems that has sent it to the service center multiple times. If there have been significant problems, then I would probably go for a new MS now.

If your MS has been problem free and you have been happy with it, then I would definitely wait. If you bought a new MS now, it would not only have substantially the same design as what you already own, but the luck of the draw might give you a less reliable unit than the one you have. You will regret your decision in that case, particularly when a significant redesign comes out. The possible exception is that I do think dual motors are superior enough that you should probably replace your MS now if it was bought before the dual-motor era, even if the car is running well.

If your old MS has been problem free, then I would not try to anticipate the timing of a major refresh. I would be reactive and wait for refreshes to occur. I think we would all recognize a big, significant refresh when we saw it. You could then upgrade, confident that you did so at the beginning of a product cycle. Even if that refresh doesn't occur for two years, you still own a trouble-free example of what is basically the same car as what you would have replaced it with. This is reinforced by the fact that the MS you own might even be better in certain ways than the car you could buy now. Do you have AP1? Leather upholstery? Do you like your yacht floor? Your old nose? Your bright HID headlights? Your 80 Amp dual charger?

My point is that what you own now should be an important factor when deciding when to replace it with a new MS. This is particularly the case because Teslas have enough unit-to-unit quality variation that prematurely getting rid of an MS that has been very reliable may turn out to be a bad decision.
 
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If you don't own a Tesla and are looking to replace your current car now or buy an additional one, then buy an MS or MX now: you'll be happy you did.

If you own an MS, even if it's a few years old and has higher miles, then it depends on whether that MS has been running well with no problems or few problems, or has had quality problems that has sent it to the service center multiple times. If there have been significant problems, then I would probably go for a new MS now.

If your MS has been problem free and you have been happy with it, then I would definitely wait. If you bought a new MS now, it would not only have substantially the same design as what you already own, but the luck of the draw might give you a less reliable unit than the one you have. You will regret your decision in that case, particularly when a significant redesign comes out. The possible exception is that I do think dual motors are superior enough that you should probably replace your MS now if it was bought before the dual-motor era, even if the car is running well.

If your old MS has been problem free, then I would not try to anticipate the timing of a major refresh. I would be reactive and wait for refreshes to occur. I think we would all recognize a big, significant refresh when we saw it. You could then upgrade, confident that you did so at the beginning of a product cycle. Even if that refresh doesn't occur for two years, you still own a trouble-free example of what is basically the same car as what you would have replaced it with. This is reinforced by the fact that the MS you own might even be better in certain ways than the car you could buy now. Do you have AP1? Leather upholstery? Do you like your yacht floor? Your old nose? Your bright HID headlights? Your 80 Amp dual charger?

My point is that what you own now should be an important factor when deciding when to replace it with a new MS. This is particularly the case because Teslas have enough unit-to-unit quality variation that prematurely getting rid of an MS that has been very reliable may turn out to be a bad decision.


What an enormously sensible analysis! Thank you for sharing it.

You've described perfectly where I now sit with my optioned-out Midnight Silver 2015 S85D. One balky door handle away from three problem-free years. Fast. Sexy. Handles like a car half its size. Well-behaved AP 1. Yacht floor where I can put my computer bag and jacket. 80 amp charging. Ecohitch for my bike rack. Just about perfect in so many ways.

Would make perfect sense to wait for a 120D with a modern MCU processor (and even door pockets!).

Ah, but complications has arisen to this simple logic. An IRS one. And, an I ruv red one:

Phase-out of tax credit likely to begin October 1.

Model 3 configuration invitation burning a hole in my psyche right now (awaiting RWD). Love my wife's MC Red RWD Model 3. Real-world range is on par with a 100D (with 25% faster supercharging on a miles-added-per-minute basis). MCU processor is current. Door pockets are here right now. And, handling is out of this world.

Oh, and this: Sale of paid off 85D will let me buy M3 LR AWD for cash (and rebate/credit). Three-year-old paid-off car turns into brand-new, longer-range paid-off car. Tempting.

However, Model 3's single (small) screen -- not tilted towards driver -- is limiting and sub-optimal. Road noise is noticeably stronger/cruder.

And, once one has experienced Model S's hatchbacked voraciousness to swallow just about any baggage/gear load, and its supreme sense of occupant safety, it's tough to walk away.

Going back and forth on this. Drove her M3 yesterday. Looked forward to it. Will drive my MS today. Looking forward to it.

Ah, such first-world problems we have!
 
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There is a service rep here in Knoxville. Guy used to be I think the service manager at the local Audi/Porsche/Jaguar dealer.
Yes, but he's spending a lot more time in Nashville and Memphis as those are far bigger markets and he's just a ranger that works where the customers are. Sure travels a lot.

This news kind of stinks, as I go to Brentwood 2-3 times a year for my kids' swim meets, and had hoped I could take the Tesla, rather than swap with my wife when she can't go
Well, as long as the car drives itself you might be good then, esp. if you can wait on various repairs . But do know they are overloaded and even if you get an appointment, oftentimes they just get your car and it sits on their lot for days until they finally have time to do something with it. Also in my experience they break more stuff than they fix so it's a neverending string of visits.

That said if you luck out and your car is not a QA reject, your chances of being happy with it are high, just make sure nothing is obviously wrong with the car before you agree to sign on the dotted line (about taking delivery).
 
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