Buy the Model S Now or Wait 3-4 months?

[legend502]

One thing to also really consider in especially states like California is the fact that you could get tax incentives of up to $10K in the short term; so if you wait have great features is that worth incremental $10K that you will have to come out of pocket or finance. I highly doubt Tesla is going to drop their prices by that amount to offset the exhausted tax incentives.

I'm in the similar boat myself with that decision - Also supercharging does have a value - while many say it is small - in perpetuity it is not in comparison.

This is a great thread a forum - I love all of the information. Such a strong community!

 

[whitex]

To add another perspective, we got our last S in Dec 2016. Today, we couldn't even get the car equipped this way, and/or for the same price due to options reshuffling. Bottom line is that the closest car I could get today would cost almost $5K more, have some options we don't want (glass roof, SAS), some options we don't care about (upgraded audio), and it couldn't come in the color combination that is our 1st choice (grey seats with light headliner and dark ash wood).

Another way to look at it - you may get new features you might or might not want (say they move to M3 style single screen), you may have to pay for features you don't want (say they bundle more features together, or discontinue 75D and make a new 85D for $9K more the lowest option). This would not be unprecedented for Model S.

My point is, there may be drawbacks to waiting as well. Oh no! You could miss out by not waiting but you could also miss out by waiting!

 

[DMack]

I pulled the trigger because if I were to wait for every anticipated refresh of feature upgrade, i would be stuck in a perpetual holding pattern

 

[Brettski]

Getting ready also...

But question: does it mean anything that there is literally zero new inventory within hundreds of miles of me?

 

[chispas]

Getting ready also...

But question: does it mean anything that there is literally zero new inventory within hundreds of miles of me?

Not really, the sales representative at the showroom have access to many cars that aren’t available online. When I bought mine in December they had many and there weren’t any on their website.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Title says it all. Can't decide to buy the model S now and get free supercharging and the tax credit or wait a 3-4 months and have a "chance" there might be a interior refresh and loose the free supercharging and tax credit?

There is zero chance that the tax credit is going away in 3-4 months. The full credit will almost certainly last until 9/30/18. After that there's a half credit until 3/31/19, then a quarter credit until 9/30/19. There is a tiny chance those dates will have to be pulled forward by 90 days; there is a larger but still small chance they will be pushed out by 90 days. It depends entirely on Tesla sales in the US.

Meanwhile, whether to buy now is completely decided by how important free supercharging is to you. If it's unimportant wait a bit -- hope for great deals at the end of the quarter, and some kind of cool update like an interior refresh. But make a deadline for yourself or you'll find that you miss out due to continually waiting for the next big thing to come along.

There is no doubt the car will continue getting better. It took three years three months for the accumulated betterness to convince me to upgrade, and that's only because free supercharging is going away. Whatever you get will be so awesome to drive that sooner is better just because you get to drive more. If money is an issue, get a CPO -- it will be only a little less great.

 

[Tiger]

Good things come to those who wait

 

[Tiger]

Tesla will need to refresh their model S and X March 2018 latest when first real competition I-Pace comes out: Jaguar I-Pace

I personally I'm in strike and will not purchase a new Tesla before it's properly refreshed with proper fit, finish, and quality assurance. Meanwhile, I will look at used ones and/or competition.

 

[R.S]

Title says it all. Can't decide to buy the model S now and get free supercharging and the tax credit or wait a 3-4 months and have a "chance" there might be a interior refresh and loose the free supercharging and tax credit?

If the car is good enough, then buy it now.

You can always wait a couple of months more, but then you will never have a Tesla. I get that people want to find a pattern, or time their purchase, but there are so many small changes, like price increases, reductions, options bundling, that you really can't say when the best time to buy exactly is.

IMO they will update the S in the near future, but that could also be next year. I am pretty sure they will wait until the M3 is sold in volumes, before they change anything big.

The real question is if the update will even be satisfactory to you. If they just change the interior a bit, would that really make the car more attractive to you? And since the X isn't that old, I doubt they will completely redo the platform.

So if you really can't stand the interior of the Model S, then wait. Otherwise just buy it.

 

[MXWing]

Benefit of getting a Tesla now is once you refresh, you will likely get a better Tesla than your neighbors after they got a a better one than you did.

"Perfect timing" tends to get annihilated within a matter of months in the best case scenarios.

I got a 60D Model X with AP2. No question, the best bang for buck you can get at that time (October 2016)

Fast forward just a few months later. 75D's were the same price as what I got for the 60D with better build refinement, standard options, etc.

As an aside, I didn't even have cruise control when I took delivery so being the FIRST with AP2 did absolutely nothing.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

"Perfect timing" tends to get annihilated within a matter of months in the best case scenarios.

While often true, my Q1/2017 Model X P100D is pretty special.

Has:
+ Ventilated seats (discontinued)
+ Adaptive spoiler (discontinued)
+ Leather (discontinued)
+ Alcantara dash/headliner (current status unknown, has been discontinued at times since)
+ Helix wheels (discontinued)
+ Had free trim choice at time of order (extra trim choices since discontinued/packaged)
+ Glossy seatbacks
+ Free supercharging for life of car (discontinued)

Doesn't have:
- AP 2.5 (has AP2)
- Pleather (has leather)
- Matte seatbacks (has glossy)

That's pretty good for a Tesla IMO one year later, for my preferences it is a signficantly better car than I could buy today. Then again, whole of 2016 was quarter after quarter of major changes: facelift in one, 100 kWh in another, AP2 in third etc. So it can go both ways.

 

[GarrickS]

Op, I think you should buy a used model S right now. Buy a 1.5-3 year old car and get AP1.

You want a Model S today, but you don't want to drop a grip of change because of incoming upgrades. With a used car, you can save 5 digits on a car. You will experience the splendor that is AP1. When Tesla delivers on an interior refresh and makes real progress on AP2, you can turn around and buy a new car.

 

[GarrickS]

I think my car is the best era. . Mid 2016.. post refreshed nose and still has AP1.

 

[MXWing]

While often true, my Q1/2017 Model X P100D is pretty special.

Has:
+ Ventilated seats (discontinued)
+ Adaptive spoiler (discontinued)
+ Leather (discontinued)
+ Alcantara dash/headliner (current status unknown, has been discontinued at times since)
+ Helix wheels (discontinued)
+ Had free trim choice at time of order (extra trim choices since discontinued/packaged)
+ Glossy seatbacks
+ Free supercharging for life of car (discontinued)

Doesn't have:
- AP 2.5 (has AP2)
- Pleather (has leather)
- Matte seatbacks (has glossy)

That's pretty good for a Tesla IMO one year later, for my preferences it is a signficantly better car than I could buy today. Then again, whole of 2016 was quarter after quarter of major changes: facelift in one, 100 kWh in another, AP2 in third etc. So it can go both ways.

Some things of note as well I think worth mentioning is

+ Towing package standard
+ Option for foldable 7 seats
+ Option for 6 seat and center console
+ Pricing differences?
+ Three position dynamic LED Turning lights?

--

The foldable 7 seats is huge for those who would be interested in that.. My list is probably not fully correct or comprehensive.

 

[sub]

I can see a model S exterior refresh being needed, it's still a beautiful car and if the same design was released today for the first time it wouldn't look old. However, to those that have followed Tesla since the model S was released it does feel stale.

I don't get the big deal regarding an interior refresh though. The seats/material have already changed multiple times. There isn't much else to the interior, a different door panel design is that important? Not much can be done to the cash without going away from simplicity concept.

Model X is still a new design, not sure why it gets lumped in with Model S (other than interior). Model X feels more advanced with falcon wing doors and auto doors.

We have had our X for 5 weeks, will be happy to drive it for the next 5-10 years regardless of how many changes are done to the new models.

My iPhone 6 is still perfectly fine also.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Some things of note as well I think worth mentioning is

+ Towing package standard
+ Option for foldable 7 seats
+ Option for 6 seat and center console
+ Pricing differences?
+ Three position dynamic LED Turning lights?

--

The foldable 7 seats is huge for those who would be interested in that.. My list is probably not fully correct or comprehensive.

@MXWing

You are right about those notes, of course. The standard base features and price has changed and a few options (unrelated to my chosen spec) have appeared.

Mine wasn't really supposed to be a comprehensive list of product changes, but a comparison of what my car has that isn't available today vs. what it doesn't have that would be in my car had I ordered today with my chosen spec-level (loaded 6 seater). Just to illustrate one scenario that can happen in this crazy Tesla twilight zone.

You are right that standard features and prices have gone up and down several times over the course of the year. The prices actually went up after I got my car, but since then I think they may have gone down somewhat. Premium Upgrades included e.g. the sound system upgrade etc. It is possible that my car would be cheaper today as specced. It is loaded, so it has turning LEDs, towing and premium sound, but they were part of paid options of course for me.

I agree the 6 seat center console and 5/7 seat folding certainly are major options that have appeared after my order. They are not for me, but certainly for someone they are.

I always wanted the 6 seater specifically, with the open center and not the console. So basically in my specific case I'd be out all these things: ventilated seats (discontinued), adaptive spoiler (discontinued), leather (discontinued), Alcantara dash/headliner (current status unknown, has been discontinued at times since), Helix wheels - the only wheels I liked (discontinued), free trim choice at time of order (extra trim choices since discontinued/packaged), glossy seatbacks, free supercharging for life of car (discontinued)... I believe there was also a couple of extra paint choices at the time.

And out of the additions the car has gotten only AP 2.5 as something I'd want instead of AP2 and possibly a little lower price. Pleater and matte seatbacks would not have been my first choices, though they are not a problem for me either. The entirely discontinued missing items are more of a problem...

However, I fully expect that sometime in 2018 Tesla will come out with big battery, 21-70 cell, new charge port (CCS for Europe), increased performance, new dashboard, new MCU computer, possible HUD... which will make my car look like an old turd. So certainly someone thinking of that purchase today, has that additional thing to think about.

So for me, re-buying my car today would result in a worse car than a year ago. But give it 3-12 months depending on which rumor to believe and I expect things to change dramatically after the upgrades.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't get the big deal regarding an interior refresh though. The seats/material have already changed multiple times. There isn't much else to the interior, a different door panel design is that important? Not much can be done to the cash without going away from simplicity concept.

A new central computer/screen/system may be huge...

Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD #63

 

[MXWing]

A new central computer/screen/system may be huge...

Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD #63

How have rumors like this in the past ended up working out?

If I recall, AP2 was known pretty early before it was formally announced.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

How have rumors like this in the past ended up working out?

If I recall, AP2 was known pretty early before it was formally announced.

It really depends. We had few leaksters on the Model X days telling us about noseconeless as well as the delays/ramp-up, which were very much correct. My personal analysis also found out about Model X adaptive spoiler beforehand and also speculated on Drive PX, but those were outside of actual rumors. (If someone wants to read: Model X - What do we (think we) know, June 2015 summary)

But the biggest issue is that Tesla changes things. Like the AP 1.5 hints we got, that never got released: Is Model X (or was?) getting an "AP 1.5" before full-autonomous "AP 2.0" suite upgrade?

I think the rumors about the interior/dash are true, but I do not know if Tesla will go through with releasing them as planned of course or if things change once more.

 

[JayyyDeee]

I'm right there with you. I'm nursing an order online.... However - there's always going to be that "next" refresh or update - you'll never get in on the last update which lasts forever - at least that's how I'm seeing it.

Although I would generally agree the next refresh is super close.