Canceling order due to autopilot death news?

[buckerine]

Today is the last day of my seven day period to cancel my order. I have to admit the news about the autopilot death spooks me a little. Not because I don't know about AP's limitations. I've driven the car extensively and understand that AP as a technology is still in its early stages.

What I'm more concerned about is what effect this will have on demand for Teslas in general. Tesla the company is riding on a lot of debt. Any significant shift in demand can cause trouble real fast. Not sure I want to plunk down 100k on a car if the company making it may be in trouble soon.

I realize I may be over-sensationalizing things, but it's still worth thinking about. Thoughts?

 

[Patrick W]

Personally, I'm more concerned about the airbag debacle.

 

[James Anders]

Don't buy Autopilot. You can always upgrade.

 

[azred]

Only an extremely wealthy individual should be plunking down $100k on any new car. If that is you, why worry? If it's not you, why would you spend so much on any extremely expensive car knowing it will lose half of its value before the warranty even expires?

 

[Xenius]

Only an extremely wealthy individual should be plunking down $100k on any new car. If that is you, why worry? If it's not you, why would you spend so much on any extremely expensive car knowing it will lose half of its value before the warranty even expires?

As a nowhere near close to an extremely wealthy individual, I can say I'm buying the car because I think it's a marvelous piece of technology and I want to be part of it. I adore (for the most part) the company and appreciate it's mission. I also intend to convert a few friends to Teslamaniacs. That, and I've run the numbers more times than is probably healthy, and can make it work.

 

[buckerine]

Only an extremely wealthy individual should be plunking down $100k on any new car. If that is you, why worry? If it's not you, why would you spend so much on any extremely expensive car knowing it will lose half of its value before the warranty even expires?

Sorry, but gotta call out dumb comments when I see them. One's wealth does not in any way preclude one from being wise with money. In fact, being wise with money is what makes many people wealthy to begin with.

Second, almost all cars today lose half their value or more within 4 years, so I'm not sure where you're going with that.

The fact that I've already decided to allocate 100k to this particular car speaks to my general excitement about the company and the technology (and, of course my confidence with respect to my finances post-purchase). But that doesn't mean I shouldn't question the wisdom of a purchase of this magnitude if maybe the company behind the product may see trouble down the road. I'm not saying Tesla will fail and I'm sure as hell not a short seller. I want the best for the company as I think they've created an amazing product. But, frankly, I care more about my money than the company and I want to see my money spent on something that has a rosy future. If not for today's news, I would've had no issues with my order whatsoever.

 

[xav-]

OP, I think what matters is whether you want the autopilot and how confident you feel about it. Personally I am waiting for an AP refresh or the 3 before buying.

The fears that you have that it may bring financial trouble to tesla are way, way overblown, at this very early stage.

 

[ZeroDarkSilver]

Not so long ago, it seemed like Teslas were self-immolating every other week. The hype and fear around spontaneous battery fires seemed pretty dire at the time, and yet Tesla survived and thrived.

This is a terrible tragedy, and it's a sober reminder to all of us to stay alert at all times, but things will move on. Tesla is pushing the entire industry in the right direction. If you really believe an accident like this is going to slow or stop progress, then you're betting against the whole evolution of the automobile industry to electric and autonomy, not just Tesla.

Tesla has been through many narrow passes at this point, and has seen much darker days than this. The fact that it has continued to gain followers and customers over the years, I think, means it's on the right track as far as where the future of transport is going. You just have to believe in that. Or not.

Is it riskier than just buying a Honda? Maybe. But then again Honda just told 300,000 of its customers to stop driving their cars immediately because their airbags have a 50/50 chance of spraying hot shrapnel into their faces in a collision (Stop driving these Hondas right now, says regulator).

 

[Dutchie]

Only an extremely wealthy individual should be plunking down $100k on any new car. If that is you, why worry? If it's not you, why would you spend so much on any extremely expensive car knowing it will lose half of its value before the warranty even expires?

Even for the extremely wealthy it is totally retarded for buying such an expensive car which only brings you from A to B. A Mazda 3 of Toyota Corolla can do the same task just as well.

So, that is totally rational but you know what... I have a brother who walked past the edge as he is now in remission from Leukaemia. My father just purchased his last car. His whole life he wanted to have a Jaguar or even a Bentley and he bought now an Opel Adam.. So he has had a life wanting to have a busines beautiful car but his rational prevented him from doing so. I find that sad. My brother thought he had quite a while to go just to experience that life is very vulnerable. I am usually quite rational but now I am now thinking: "Screw rational..!" I have been wanting a Tesla for about six years. Reading about it every day. Following this blog, watching YouTube videos and drooling at the Tesla stores. If you somehow can make it happen, just do it! So I am just two months away from talking to the bank in order to get some equity out of my home and order a Model X.

 

[ggnykk]

Today is the last day of my seven day period to cancel my order. I have to admit the news about the autopilot death spooks me a little. Not because I don't know about AP's limitations. I've driven the car extensively and understand that AP as a technology is still in its early stages.

What I'm more concerned about is what effect this will have on demand for Teslas in general. Tesla the company is riding on a lot of debt. Any significant shift in demand can cause trouble real fast. Not sure I want to plunk down 100k on a car if the company making it may be in trouble soon.

I realize I may be over-sensationalizing things, but it's still worth thinking about. Thoughts?

Tesla won't have financial trouble because of this. In the history of Tesla, it went through challenges many times worse than this and still survive. Also, Elon Musk would have no problem raising money if he really needs it. He is larger than life and viewed as greater than god in silicon valley.

 

[wdolson]

The number of people killed in Teslas is still very low. The driver was doing something the manufacturer told them not to do (he was distracted by a movie apparently). People in ICEs do stupid things all the time and get killed.

Because it's Tesla there will probably be a media storm for a week or two, but it will blow over like all the controversies before. Remember the claims that Teslas were fire hazards a couple of years ago? That blew over.

The term here and other places for it is FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

 

[whitex]

Why would you (or anyone) cancel the order, unless you are buying the car purely for AutoPilot (in which case read on)? Tesla is a great car, with or without AutoPilot. Just don't get AP, unless you want it as a technical curiosity. You actually have to be more vigilant when driving on AP because it works so well most of the time, therefore it fools you into false sense of security, but when it fails it can cause a lot of harm. Those who relax and are less vigilant than driving manually risk getting into accidents. It's like driving with a student driver who has somewhat impaired vision, blind spots, and experiences occasional seizures - most of the time in good conditions it will be just fine, but when the student makes a mistake you have to be ready to take over at any time. So bottom line, takes more effort to safely drive with AP than without it. From my personal experience, the only time AP comes useful is in stop and go highway traffic, slow moving, no lane changes - there your risk is low, maybe a fender bender. And I say "your risk" because as you may or may not have gathered so far, AutoPilot comes with all the legal disclaimers and warnings that tell you that you as a driver have full override capabilities and therefore are completely responsible no matter what the AutoPilot does.

 

[Dealanach]

There is no guarantee that any other car company isn't currently covering up a defect, purchasing shoddy wheels, etc. generally speaking, the car auxiliaries are built with parts from the lowest bidder.

At any time some catastrophe could ruin the world economy for years, rendering expensive automobiles a major liability. Don't overthink it. We're all going to die sometime. Relatively soon, in fact. Get Model S and get the grin, I say.

 

[buckerine]

Why would you (or anyone) cancel the order, unless you are buying the car purely for AutoPilot (in which case read on)? Tesla is a great car, with or without AutoPilot. Just don't get AP, unless you want it as a technical curiosity. You actually have to be more vigilant when driving on AP because it works so well most of the time, therefore it fools you into false sense of security, but when it fails it can cause a lot of harm. Those who relax and are less vigilant than driving manually risk getting into accidents. It's like driving with a student driver who has somewhat impaired vision, blind spots, and experiences occasional seizures - most of the time in good conditions it will be just fine, but when the student makes a mistake you have to be ready to take over at any time. So bottom line, takes more effort to safely drive with AP than without it. From my personal experience, the only time AP comes useful is in stop and go highway traffic, slow moving, no lane changes - there your risk is low, maybe a fender bender. And I say "your risk" because as you may or may not have gathered so far, AutoPilot comes with all the legal disclaimers and warnings that tell you that you as a driver have full override capabilities and therefore are completely responsible no matter what the AutoPilot does.

Absolutely right. I'm convinced that AP poses more risks not because of its technical limitations but because drivers tend to feel secure enough over time that they're not sufficiently alert in emergency situations which AP can't handle.

If the recent schematics of new AP hardware are real, I'm hoping Tesla does indeed install that hardware sooner rather than later, and provides all Model S owners with the opportunity to upgrade.

 

[Jlwine]

As a nowhere near close to an extremely wealthy individual, I can say I'm buying the car because I think it's a marvelous piece of technology and I want to be part of it. I adore (for the most part) the company and appreciate it's mission. I also intend to convert a few friends to Teslamaniacs. That, and I've run the numbers more times than is probably healthy, and can make it work.

Ditto!

 

[LargeHamCollider]

As Tesla noted, there is a traffic fatality on average every 94 million miles driven, Tesla's have driven over 130 million miles on autopilot with one fatality. This alone should show that autopilot is not unusually hazardous... that said, EYES ON THE ROAD. It's not an autonomous car (yet).

 

[Jlwine]

From what we know so far, the headline could have just as accurately been, "Fatal Crash While Driver Wearing Seatbelt"

 

[ecarfan]

Not so long ago, it seemed like Teslas were self-immolating every other week. The hype and fear around spontaneous battery fires seemed pretty

(You likely know all this, but just to clarify...) In late 2013 there were TWO instances where a Tesla hit a small object on a road surface at speed and the battery compartment was penetrated and several minutes later a section of the battery overheated and started to burn (not "explode", just burn).

These two instances got an inordinate amount of attention and there were widespread predictions that Tesla was doomed. Tesla responded appropriately, offered retrofitted battery protections and started incorporating those protections in all new cars. Since that time I am not aware of any more cases of battery damage and fires after hitting small objects on the road (there have been a few cases of Tesla crashes at high speed into buildings because...the driver was an idiot...and resulting battery fires).

Tesla survived those two incidents and continued to prosper. I believe that Tesla will survive this latest incident in Florida where the driver was using AP (including TACC) but not paying attention to his surroundings since he did not use the brake before impact. The AEB did not activate either, for a variety of reasons. A very sad story.

I think it unlikely that the NHTSA will find fault with Tesla and the AP in this situation.

 

[Filter]

From what we know so far, the headline could have just as accurately been, "Fatal Crash While Driver Wearing Seatbelt"

Today is the last day of my seven day period to cancel my order. I have to admit the news about the autopilot death spooks me a little. Not because I don't know about AP's limitations. I've driven the car extensively and understand that AP as a technology is still in its early stages.

What I'm more concerned about is what effect this will have on demand for Teslas in general. Tesla the company is riding on a lot of debt. Any significant shift in demand can cause trouble real fast. Not sure I want to plunk down 100k on a car if the company making it may be in trouble soon.

I realize I may be over-sensationalizing things, but it's still worth thinking about. Thoughts?

To get back to the OP, I think that buying a Tesla always had an element of risk that was different from buying into a well established brand. That said, it also has a reward (tremendous in my biased opinion) that comes with it - the ability to be part of something materially different from the rest of the industry. I love driving my Tesla, I use autopilot daily, and am careful about its utilization.
I previously owned a few European luxury brands, and although the cars were wonderful, I love my Tesla more.
I hope you stay with the brand, this is a tragic event but it shouldn't change your initial decision (again, in my biased opinion).

Best of luck, no matter what you choose.

 

[buckerine]

To get back to the OP, I think that buying a Tesla always had an element of risk that was different from buying into a well established brand. That said, it also has a reward (tremendous in my biased opinion) that comes with it - the ability to be part of something materially different from the rest of the industry. I love driving my Tesla, I use autopilot daily, and am careful about its utilization.
I previously owned a few European luxury brands, and although the cars were wonderful, I love my Tesla more.
I hope you stay with the brand, this is a tragic event but it shouldn't change your initial decision (again, in my biased opinion).

Best of luck, no matter what you choose.

Thanks. I too love the car otherwise and have decided to go through with my order. One thing that's reassuring is the number of rabid Tesla fans who believe in the company and its mission, and who also understand that to be an innovator by definition requires traveling down rocky roads that others may not have the ability or willingness to travel.