Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[flathillll]

great point but still bad news for GM. I hate GM but dont want to see our industrial base decimated if they fail. now Korea has their tentacles in their only hope - the LG Bolt

remember waht happened to schwinn (which was the largest) their asian supplier turned on them and now that supplier is the largest bicycle maker in the world

pretty sad GM was given a second chance and they blew it

Ford also has a secret up their sleeve (hint hint their proto packs use gigafactory format cells made in Japan by Panasonic)

short GM

long FORD

-----
GM's Silicon Valley staff of fewer than 10 people works out of a nondescript office in Palo Alto, led by Frankie James, a Stanford University Ph.D. in computer science. Opened in 2007, its purpose is to scout new technology and ideas, essentially serving as a listening post for innovations and trends that could have automotive applications.
That headcount is a fraction of that of Daimler AG or Volkswagen AG, which have a few hundred employees each in the Bay Area. Ford is rapidly adding to its Palo Alto innovation center, which opened in January and is on track to house about 125 by year end.

 

[Thumper]

That is a remarkably amateurish video for an official promotion.

 

[stopcrazypp]

That is a remarkably amateurish video for an official promotion.

It's not really an official promotion video. Just as journalist who recorded an engineer explaining things at the CES event.

 

[Jeff N]

This may seem like a long list but most of these items were also outsourced to 3rd party suppliers for the Volt as well and generally most cars and trucks from major manufacturers are outsourced for conventional cars as well. Big car makers these days are system integrators. They still largely make their own engines (but not always) and often their own transmissions (but many sometimes outsource) and most of the rest is outsourced. It saves money because those suppliers specialize and invest in specialized production equipment they can share across contracts with different companies. The components and parts that they supply are often co-developed by designers and engineers from both companies.

Let's go down the list of these parts and where they came from on the Volt plugin hybrid:

Electric Drive Motor
Power Inverter Module (converts DC power to AC for the drive unit)
Hitachi Automotive

On Board Charger
Lear

Electric Climate Control System Compressor
Delphi?

Battery Cells and Pack
LG cells, GM pack design and assembly

High Power Distribution Module (manages the flow of high voltage to various components)
Probably 3rd party

Battery Heater
3rd party

Accessory Power Module (maintains low-voltage power delivery to accessories)
TDK

Power Line Communication Module (manages communication between vehicle and a DC charging station)
Not used in Volt

Instrument Cluster
3rd party?

Infotainment System
Bose, Delphi

So, pretty much all outsourced in the Volt as well and it didn't stop GM from re-engineering almost every part in the 2nd gen Volt to incrementally improve the design. The unique aspect with the Bolt is that all these parts are from the same supplier rather than contracts being scattered around to a number of different suppliers. Toyota and Ford outsourced their first Prius and Prius-like hybrid transmissions to a Japanese parts supplier (Aisin). That obviously didn't prevent Toyota, for instance, from dominating the hybrid car business. Even though Aisin did the manufacturing Toyota still designed or co-designed the parts. The same is true for GM with many of the Volt and Bolt parts and there is nothing preventing them from moving some parts in-house again for a later generation like both Toyota and Ford did with their second generation hybrid transmission manufacturing.

 

[flathillll]

all true but no auto maker in their right mind would outsource the engine

gm has zero core competency. you cannnot compete with Tesla by being a system integrator. and again learn the lesson from Schwinn which used one supplier. that supplier ended up owning them

GM has made a fatal mistake by outsourcing ALL the EV core compentcy type components to LG

they realized they could not compete by throwing together a bunch of components from different suppliers (took over a year to get the first volt to start, nightmare of complexity)

but instead of investing to make EV design a core competency they took a shortcut - the LG Bolt

they are basically rebadging a car. yes it is that bad

less than zero respect for GM management. much respect for Nissan

 

[Mr X]

The picture says it all.


Pay less and you get a vehicle with a design that somehow didn't get thrown in the trash bin. Pay more and you get a sexy Tesla.


But thats just me.... now the Bolt is great, everything about it, except its design...

 

[Jeff N]

all true but no auto maker in their right mind would outsource the engine

Diesel engines for Ford and Chrysler pickups and SUVs etc. are routinely outsourced to Cummins and Navistar International.

ZF and Aisin sell lots of transmissions to major car companies.

 

[WarpedOne]

Regarding those 145$/kWH... It is a FIXED price for the NEXT 4 years.
Only in 2019 the price can get any lower than those 145$.
Where will tesla cell price be in 2019?

gm has zero core competency. you cannnot compete with Tesla by being a system integrator. and again learn the lesson from Schwinn which used one supplier. that supplier ended up owning them

This. The writing is on the wall ... LG will own GM in not that distant future.
And Samsung will go after BMW.

 

[wdolson]

We may be seeing the first signs of a fundamental shift in the automotive business like we saw in the photographic business when digital cameras came in. It will be a lot slower because cars are much more expensive and complex pieces of machinery than cameras. It only cost a few hundred dollars to ditch the film camera for a digital (now they are ubiquitous), but most people don't have the money to ditch their ICE for a BEV unless BEVs got significantly cheaper than ICE, which won't happen for a while.

It's going to be 5-10 years before the mainstream public starts wanting BEVs, then it's going to be about another 10-20 years until they are mainstream. A heck of a lot of battery manufacturing plants need to be built before BEVs can put even a modest dent in ICE sales. It will take 200 Gigafactory equivalents to build the 100 million light passenger vehicles built every year. Additionally stationary storage for renewable energy is beginning to become a thing and production of batteries for that is going to compete with vehicle battery production for some time as the stationary storage need gets filled out.

However, the technology is beginning to go into place and the players who are showing early mastery are generally not the old players in the car business. That does not bode well for most car companies.

 

[flathillll]

Regarding those 145$/kWH... It is a FIXED price for the NEXT 4 years.
Only in 2019 the price can get any lower than those 145$.
Where will tesla cell price be in 2019?


This. The writing is on the wall ... LG will own GM in not that distant future.
And Samsung will go after BMW.

yup and that price was negotiated before the crash in commoditu prices...

the saddest part of GM outsourcing the core is it is not that hard

let me give you 3 examples of how a small underfunded teams in bay area beat detroit

zero motorcycles designed own motor, bms, brain, and battery pack architecture (working on in-house controller/charger for next gen bike, using sevcon for now)

alta motors designed own motor, bms, brain, controller, and barrery pack arch

mission motors designed two motors, brain, bms, controller with integrated charger (shared heatsink), and batt pack arch

mission was killed when apple offered 5 engineers over 300k/yr along with 200k signing bonus to defect (who could turn that down even if they believed in the mission

apple is not buying off the shelf anything for their core but they underestimate the boring part

GM should be ashamed. The LG Bolt makes me want to puke

 

[Breezy]

I'll be pretty disappointed if it doesn't have more range than an S60.

 

[JRP3]

not likely as you can already buy almost handmade junky hobby grade prismatic cells (used in rc) for $165/kwh wholesale in Chine and they are high power cells (meaning thicker components = higher raw material cost)

The price of poor quality cells being higher than your claims for quality cells doesn't exactly support your position. Also, higher power cells usually have thinner components for faster ion transfer, which increases power delivery but reduces their capacity. Higher capacity cells usually have thicker components which slow their power delivery but increase their capacity. You've made some pretty extreme claims about cell costs with no credible sources to back it up. How about some good links showing the dramatic drop in lithium ion commodity pricing to prove your point?

 

[scaesare]

bolt is a piece of junk

Your stunning array of supporting data leaves no doubt.

Thank you.

 

[walla2]

I get that a lot of people want to hate GM cars because......GM. I like to judge the hardware on it's own merit separate from the politics of the company that makes the hardware.

Tahoe and Cadillac CTS owner. It's not GM hate. I am skeptical about a compact EV with GM interiors, GM dealers, and GM first gen problems changing the world. People don't buy Sparks or Volts in large numbers now, and dealers don't try to sell ELRs, Volts, or Bolts. I'm just envisioning that GM is going to have to take big losses to get these off lots at haggle rates when a compelling, faster, funner, and sharper Tesla is out for less.

 

[FlasherZ]

Tahoe and Cadillac CTS owner. It's not GM hate. I am skeptical about a compact EV with GM interiors, GM dealers, and GM first gen problems changing the world. People don't buy Sparks or Volts in large numbers now, and dealers don't try to sell ELRs, Volts, or Bolts. I'm just envisioning that GM is going to have to take big losses to get these off lots at haggle rates when a compelling, faster, funner, and sharper Tesla is out for less.

This is the same problem the Leaf had very early on, yet it seems to be doing reasonably well even outside the California compliance market with a horrible range. They're certainly not going to sell 500,000 in the first year, but with the right incentives (to customers and dealers) and education, they have a good chance. If the local dealership were to sell them, I might sign up as a reference to talk about daily driving in a BEV car for their potential customers.

From the eyes of the consumer, the Volt was merely adding a helper electric motor to a gasoline engine car. With EV-only range, there are very, very few use cases. It's not the "10x change" that is needed to change the world. BEV's (and the technology focus that comes with them) are indeed the 10x change. People want Model S for so many different reasons - the environment, the technology, the ability to carry a family of 6, the car's looks, Elon fandom, etc... the Bolt can capture a good chunk of any of that in a lower price bracket (even Elon fandom - customers will see that Elon started the trend that forced GM's hand). Tesla will be forced to compete hard - it has the upper hand because of first-mover advantage and the right technology mindset, but GM is not stupid. For now, LG is bringing this missing technology piece to GM - and because GM owns the customer interface, it will see the control points and be able to exploit those in the future.

The Bolt will not be an instant success, but if GM is smart, they have an opportunity to be the first major player to crack the barriers set down by the existing players (Leaf - range, Tesla - price) with a good-enough product. I think they've done that.

...and don't forget that GM knows how to scale, something Tesla hasn't figured out yet.

 

[scaesare]

I'm thrilled about the Bolt. There is a huge segment of the population that thinks of Tesla as some 'left wing hippie tree hugging subsidy taking' electric vehicle company. But GM? They LOVE GM. Merica. This is awesome. People who scoffed at EVs will start to take them seriously and pay attention. A whole new group of people will be cross-shopping against Tesla Model 3s, thanks to GM and Volt. Good for the planet. We all win.

A little competition never hurt anyone. Yay.

Oh stoppit already with all your "sensible, big-picture" viewpoint.

Geesh.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

...and don't forget that GM knows how to scale, something Tesla hasn't figured out yet.

They know how to scale ICE. It's pretty clear they're leaving the scalability of the Bolt in someone else's hands.

 

[bonnie]

Oh stoppit already with all your "sensible, big-picture" viewpoint.

Geesh.

I like you, too.

 

[Krugerrand]

GM's Silicon Valley staff of fewer than 10 people works out of a nondescript office in Palo Alto, led by Frankie James, a Stanford University Ph.D. in computer science. Opened in 2007, its purpose is to scout new technology and ideas, essentially serving as a listening post for innovations and trends that could have automotive applications.

That's GMs study group, the one that was announced a few years ago with the purpose of studying Tesla. I don't think they really needed a study group to figure out what Tesla was/is going to do - Tesla announced that to world on its own - but whatever. The aspect you might be missing is that 100 people aren't necessarily better at a task than 5 people. Depends on the task. So GMs smaller Silicon Valley staff may be better at their jobs than the larger other OEM Silicon Valley staff. Or not. We don't know, but we do know that size doesn't always matter - it's the magic in the wand. :wink:

I'm not a customer for the Bolt in this lifetime - doesn't appeal to me - but it will to enough people and good for those people for driving electric. I'm most disappointed by the tactic Mary Barra took with the jabs at Tesla and in light of GMs active blocking of Tesla being able to sell their cars directly to the consumer. GM isn't in it for 'us' but for themselves, so they don't get my vote if and until they change their tune. They wanted to be first to market with a long range, affordable BEV - super, great, they did it. But for anyone who thinks that the Bolt is remotely in the same league as the upcoming Model 3, you're dreaming or in denial.

 

[WarpedOne]

... and don't forget that GM knows how to scale,something Tesla hasn't figured out yet.

Yes, tesla obviously does not have a clue about scaling...