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Which of these do you believe to have the lowest total cost of ownership after 5 years.

  • 2016 Facelited Model S 75D, 55k miles, FSD - 5 Year all in cost: $77.6k

    Votes: 6 18.2%
  • 2018 Model 3 Stealth Performance, 35k miles, FSD - 5 Year all in cost: $79k

    Votes: 12 36.4%
  • 2020 Model 3 Stealth Performance, 0 miles, FSD - 5 Year all in cost: $89.4k

    Votes: 15 45.5%

  • Total voters
    33

rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
Looking for others opinions on depreciation.

I see model S's now going just below the $30's.

Thinking about a used and face lifted 2016 model S 75D vs a model 3 performance.

Thinking about total cost of ownership over say 5 years, even with another update to the S I'm thinking it shouldn't hurt the already depreciated used Model S's too bad. So maybe $30k after 5 years as a worst case.

A brand new Model 3 stealth performance can be had for $50k, so in theory as a used car will go below $30k in 5 years.
That said, hard to think about buying a car with that performance and technology in 5 years for under $30k. Especially if older S's cost $30k at that time.

A crystal ball, but what are others thoughts?
 

Akikiki

A'-Lo-HA ! y'all
Nov 26, 2012
6,436
4,526
Kaneohe, HI
I think I am tired of reading these types threads about depreciation, out of warranty maintenance, what cost will be in 5-10 years. And its mostly because people start a new thread when its been asked over and over. This question has been asked regularly since 2012/2013 to name a couple. Of course, OP, please take no offense to my ramblings.
 
Last edited:

CharleyBC

Active Member
Jun 28, 2019
1,403
1,589
Talent, OR
I confess up front that I tend not to worry much about depreciation. I buy a car to last forever (or so I hope), so by the time I finally do move it on, it's not worth much anyway. With that disclaimer out of the way, I think it's which car makes you happier and that you can afford. I didn't know a 2016 S 75D could be had for under $30K. That's pretty sweet. You could almost buy two of those for the same as a 3 Performance. But lots of folks who've owned both like the way the 3 handles better. Others like the nicer comfort touches of the S. It's really up to you.

One factor you hinted at in the poll, but didn't discuss is the lifetime free Supercharging with the S. How valuable that is depends heavily on how you'll use the car. If you will normally charge at home and use the car locally (commuting, shopping, friends, etc), you'd rarely need a Supercharger, so the feature has little value. But if you're planning lots of road trips, or you have the kind of job that has you driving from state to state all the time, the that free Supercharging is a big deal.

Bottom line: This is one of those choices where there is no wrong answer!
 

rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
I confess up front that I tend not to worry much about depreciation. I buy a car to last forever (or so I hope), so by the time I finally do move it on, it's not worth much anyway. With that disclaimer out of the way, I think it's which car makes you happier and that you can afford. I didn't know a 2016 S 75D could be had for under $30K. That's pretty sweet. You could almost buy two of those for the same as a 3 Performance. But lots of folks who've owned both like the way the 3 handles better. Others like the nicer comfort touches of the S. It's really up to you.

One factor you hinted at in the poll, but didn't discuss is the lifetime free Supercharging with the S. How valuable that is depends heavily on how you'll use the car. If you will normally charge at home and use the car locally (commuting, shopping, friends, etc), you'd rarely need a Supercharger, so the feature has little value. But if you're planning lots of road trips, or you have the kind of job that has you driving from state to state all the time, the that free Supercharging is a big deal.

Bottom line: This is one of those choices where there is no wrong answer!

Your poll question doesn't match up with your title or your post. What is warranty on the used car, how many miles do you drive normally? Depreciation will certainly favor a used car. TCO is a different question.

I meant that the early model S's that are about 6-7 years old are now dipping below $30k. A late 2016 in 5 years will also be about 7 years old.

I drive about 15k miles a year, and at least for now will be supercharging as I don't have the ability to get a home charger. Using the teslanomics calculator that means with the S I am saving about $6.5k on the charging aspect.

In terms of warranty the S has the ESP of 2 years 25k miles so would be under warranty for like another year and a half.

I've driven both and do note the different feels of the cars. Luxury vs performance. I think so long as the MCU 2 upgrade is real I'll be about as happy with either other than wanting to have the best True Cost of Ownership.
 

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,759
4,111
Southern California
What is Teslas’s official policy on lifetime charging when the ownership transfers? Is the free supercharging guaranteed for the life of the car or is there an exclusion regarding ownership transfer?
 

rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
What is Teslas’s official policy on lifetime charging when the ownership transfers? Is the free supercharging guaranteed for the life of the car or is there an exclusion regarding ownership transfer?

I appreciate you thinking of this.

Newer cars it will not transfer.

However the 2016's it will transfer so long as private party. I had the owner of this model S email Tesla and they replied confirming it will transfer.
 

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,759
4,111
Southern California
I appreciate you thinking of this.

Newer cars it will not transfer.

However the 2016's it will transfer so long as private party. I had the owner of this model S email Tesla and they replied confirming it will transfer.

Good to know and glad you confirmed.

I still remember as a longtime Tivo owner being promised “lifetime” subscription service on my device for a flat fee. Turned out that Tivo hadn’t contemplated whether “lifetime” referred to my lifetime or the DVR’s. So they later clarified the policy to mean the DVR’s lifetime. But they continued to honor the user lifetime warranty prior to the change.

Sounds like Tesla has done something similar.
 
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rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
By the way the 2016 S75D with 55k miles and FSD and 1.5 years left of ESP, is offered for $50k if anyone has any opinions about the price.

Has premium, lacks air suspension (heard unrelieved costly to fix), cold weather (Not too concerned with rear heated seats though heated wheel is nice. Apparently heated wipers doesn't do much I've been told), or high fidelity (This one I do wish it had)
 

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,759
4,111
Southern California
By the way the 2016 S75D with 55k miles and FSD and 1.5 years left of ESP, is offered for $50k if anyone has any opinions about the price.

Has premium, lacks air suspension (heard unrelieved costly to fix), cold weather (Not too concerned with rear heated seats though heated wheel is nice. Apparently heated wipers doesn't do much I've been told), or high fidelity (This one I do wish it had)

I don’t follow the Model S market that closely but two things stand out:

1) I don’t think Tesla offered FSD on 2016 cars. It was just autopilot.
2) Tesla has a lot of low mileage Model S cars on their used inventory site for less than $50K.
 
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rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
I don’t follow the Model S market that closely but two things stand out:

1) I don’t think Tesla offered FSD on 2016 cars. It was just autopilot.
2) Tesla has a lot of low mileage Model S cars on their used inventory site for less than $50K.

I appreciate your post.

FSD was only offered on 2016 cars at the very tail end of the year. This one is a December build and has it.

The reason I haven't decided with one on the tesla website was due to few in the $50's (though I have seen it) offering FSD, and a larger piece due to Tesla not offering it with free supercharging. I am valuing the free charging at $6k
 

Atari2600

Active Member
Oct 4, 2017
1,027
838
Cincinnati
Isn't this a crap shoot? Let's say 4 years in your have a battery pack failure and 5 years in a drive unit failure. Would the model 3 TCO not be a lot lower? The Model S might be fine and it might not but it would be too much for me to gamble.

To me the Model 3 seems to be lower risk plus you do not have to screw with MCU 1 to MCU 2 retrofit(if it really happens).

I vote get the car with the better MCU, better AP hardware and better warranty. And drive the hell out of it.
 
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rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
Isn't this a crap shoot? Let's say 4 years in your have a battery pack failure and 5 years in a drive unit failure. Would the model 3 TCO not be a lot lower? The Model S might be fine and it might not but it would be too much for me to gamble.

To me the Model 3 seems to be lower risk plus you do not have to screw with MCU 1 to MCU 2 retrofit(if it really happens).

I vote get the car with the better MCU, better AP hardware and better warranty. And drive the hell out of it.

I mean...you make a good point....

I just would really really hope that doesn’t happen in general though. Aren’t these supposed to be low maintenance and reliable? Part of what draws me to a Tesla...

Not disregarding what you’ve said. I think it’s valuable to weigh that, just thinking wow if that were to happen I’d be so much better keeping my current car o_O
 

SSedan

Active Member
Jul 24, 2017
2,948
2,323
Greenville Wisconsin
Free charging shouldn't be a consideration. If that tempts you to supercharger more I would call it a net cost due to wasting your time.

The S is going to need repairs, how much is a complete unknown and the determining factor.

Also the S is relatively hungry power wise compared to the 3 so the electric bill will be lower with the 3.

Talk to your insurance agent and consider your registration laws as well.
 

rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
Free charging shouldn't be a consideration. If that tempts you to supercharger more I would call it a net cost due to wasting your time.

The S is going to need repairs, how much is a complete unknown and the determining factor.

Also the S is relatively hungry power wise compared to the 3 so the electric bill will be lower with the 3.

Talk to your insurance agent and consider your registration laws as well.

Will be reliant on superchargers as at this time I don’t have an option to install a home charger.

Insurance difference wasnt as high as I expected between the two. About $200 a year difference when I spoke to them about a week ago.
 
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SSedan

Active Member
Jul 24, 2017
2,948
2,323
Greenville Wisconsin
How about registration, states that charge based on new purchase value might add up to a big difference.

Cold weather adds a lot of power consumption, if relying on supercharger the speed and extra range of the 3 are going to work in your favor.
 
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rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
How about registration, states that charge based on new purchase value might add up to a big difference.

Cold weather adds a lot of power consumption, if relying on supercharger the speed and extra range of the 3 are going to work in your favor.

Luckily for me there are supercharging stations at work and usually not in use.

Yes cold weather. Though I suppose since the charging is free on the S if I’m charging more in general the free charging becomes more valuable. Also in general though a range of 310 on M3 performance vs 250 in S75D that’s a decent difference. Plus no V3 in the S.
I don’t do too much travel in a given day but still something I should keep in mind, plus when it comes to sell the car since this is also a discussion of true cost of ownership.
 

rDunivin

Member
Nov 23, 2019
131
10
New England
How about registration, states that charge based on new purchase value might add up to a big difference.

Cold weather adds a lot of power consumption, if relying on supercharger the speed and extra range of the 3 are going to work in your favor.

Luckily for me there are supercharging stations at work and usually not in use.

Yes cold weather. Though I suppose since the charging is free on the S if I’m charging more in general the free charging becomes more valuable. Also in general though a range of 310 on M3 performance vs 250 in S75D that’s a decent difference. Plus no V3 in the S.
I don’t do too much travel in a given day but still something I should keep in mind, plus when it comes to sell the car since this is also a discussion of true cost of ownership.

Forgot to mention I checked and after a quick google Massachusetts registration is the same regardless of new or used.
 

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,759
4,111
Southern California
It looks like you’ve certainly done your homework. I don’t think you are missing anything. Of course you are comparing two very different cars with very different driving characteristics. The Model S is bigger and handles more like a family sedan, although a very fast one. The 3 is going to have a sportier feel, and has a much smaller cabin.

Both are nice cars, but very different. Which one is best for you is really just a personal preference. I’m not sure what version of FSD is included with the 2016 Model S or whether it’s upgradeable to HW3. Also, the screen in the S is bigger but much lower resolution and a bit more dated looking. And the 3 has a more advanced battery technology which should hopefully last longer.
 
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