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Which of these do you believe to have the lowest total cost of ownership after 5 years.

  • 2016 Facelited Model S 75D, 55k miles, FSD - 5 Year all in cost: $77.6k

    Votes: 6 18.2%
  • 2018 Model 3 Stealth Performance, 35k miles, FSD - 5 Year all in cost: $79k

    Votes: 12 36.4%
  • 2020 Model 3 Stealth Performance, 0 miles, FSD - 5 Year all in cost: $89.4k

    Votes: 15 45.5%

  • Total voters
    33
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MA greatly undervalues used cars but uses MSRP for new cars so suspect your difference will be easily $3k in 5 years of Excise. Once the car is 3 years old the amount they assess is lower than market value by a huge amount in my experience

suspect they will value a 2016 S75d at most at $30000 for tax purposes in 2020

Oh had no idea about that. I thought they just went back to MSRP and quoted a percent of that. Very helpful you posting that.
 
I cannot thank those that have voted and commented enough. I am very grateful for the help.

I've since run some additional numbers and updated others, put all the numbers together in a new post:

Choose my Tesla: Comparing True Cost of Ownership

I think the variable that is impossible to predict is the S will be suspect to potentially annoying and costly after warranty repairs

the battery and motor will be warrantied still but not the rest
A cpu going is costly
Those doors have problems and are costly
Just a couple of examples, the 3 seems to have less of those type of issues and you would be under full warranty most of the time
 
I think the variable that is impossible to predict is the S will be suspect to potentially annoying and costly after warranty repairs

the battery and motor will be warrantied still but not the rest
A cpu going is costly
Those doors have problems and are costly
Just a couple of examples, the 3 seems to have less of those type of issues and you would be under full warranty most of the time

Yes the two biggest ones are depreciation and repairs. Both require a crystal ball haha. So it is just educated guessing.
I think to some margin that is what we have to do especially on the 3 since there were more created, but they are all under warranty and havent been around as long.
In terms of repair. A 2016 S they had 4 years to fix stuff, a 2018 3 they had one, and a 2020 they've had 3.
That said ideally with the 3 they have learned from the S and the new battery lasts longer.
 
I dont really like the idea of you using only superchargers in your calculation but if that's what reality is for you then so be it. Just keep in mind that Tesla will start to limit your supercharging speed if you supercharge too much. Biggest factor for me would be with the 2016 S you are dealing with old hardware (MCU1 and probably at best AP2). With the newer 3s you are going to have way more capability and future upgrades available plus they are way faster.
 
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Your car costs presume a car value of $0 after 5 years

Well that's a big part of the crystal ball questions. The true cost will be after depreciation and repairs.
So I thought I would post up what others thoughts were on what that will look like.

What has been pointed out to me is that there are fewer S's made and that should help it's depreciation. Plus, it's already taken the first couple year drops which are often the highest.

At the same time, the S is considered to be older tech....
 
I dont really like the idea of you using only superchargers in your calculation but if that's what reality is for you then so be it. Just keep in mind that Tesla will start to limit your supercharging speed if you supercharge too much. Biggest factor for me would be with the 2016 S you are dealing with old hardware (MCU1 and probably at best AP2). With the newer 3s you are going to have way more capability and future upgrades available plus they are way faster.

Yes, no home charging. So will be supercharging a few times a week.

Indeed this S is currently running on AP 2.0 - that is why FSD is important to me so I can get the update.
I also factored into the calculation the claimed $2k upgrade of the MCU

That said a 3 will always charge and drive faster and has newer batteries.
 
I think I am tired of reading these types threads about depreciation, out of warranty maintenance, what cost will be in 5-10 years. And its mostly because people start a new thread when its been asked over and over. This question has been asked regularly since 2012/2013 to name a couple. Of course, OP, please take no offense to my ramblings.
It's even less annoying when the same person starts three different threads asking the same. Damn. Question.
 
It's even less annoying when the same person starts three different threads asking the same. Damn. Question.
Well I appreciate that someone merged a thread, but yes there are 3.
I have it listed one each on the model S and model 3 forum since those are the two cars in question.
And yes there does exist an older thread, I took the advice of others who helpfully contributed and went back and put together the numbers and noted that it was a revised of the previous. I am also watching the older ones.
Thank you to those that have helped to answer the question.
 
My opinion (worth exactly what you paid for it) ... you’re WAY over analyzing this.

the S and 2018 Model 3 are essentially the same cost. $1400 over 5 years is mice nuts.

$10k for a brand new car with full warranty - what’s that worth to you? New cars always cost more than one whose depreciation cycle has begun.

Final call is yours but I’d say go with what makes you HAPPY. The S and 3 are wildly different, but in this case, the financials are the same.
 
As I understand it, and I'm open to someone saying otherwise, as long as you are supercharging to 80%-85% then it won't hurt it. It is if you were to supercharge to 100% that would not be the best idea.


Tesla has limited cars that do all of their charging via DC fast charging in the past. Tesla explains why it limits Supercharging speed after high numbers of DC charges - Electrek They limit the max charge rate. They do not advertise that supercharging all the time is bad, but it appears it does affect the car long term.
 
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In the end, go with the car you enjoy driving the most.
Both are wonderful and capable cars. Neither are the most practical choice so analyzing only based on cost should only be part of the buying decision ; your enjoyment should be priority #1.
And once you factor in what each car will be worth at the end of your 5 years of ownership, it is likely close to a wash between your 3 choices.

The S I have never driven but have driven in a friends. Feels and rides much more luxurious, acceleration is similar (both are very fast) but the S in comparison feels big and heavy where the 3 feels much more nimble.
Similar to a BWM 3 series vs. a BMW 7. Some prefer sporty sedans, other prefer luxury sedans.

I think both cars feel somewhat exclusive now, but as another year or so passes the S will feel and look more exclusive than the 3's as the model 3 will be a more commonly seen car on the roads. If that matters to you. Hard to say if that will help it's resale in the end or not, in 5 years the 2016 tech may be too dated for many buyers.

I see you are looking at Stealth Performance options either way.
Is $50K for the used one including MA sales tax. If not need to add that.
The $57K for a new 2020 definitely doesn't includes MA sales tax and FSD. So need to add something.

Plus can you get one and can you get a white color one on 18's? New stealths are hard to come by, you often have to jump at the first one you see which might be in a different color and might be on 19's. You have to pay for these options ; so a new stealth 2020 with FSD could cost you $60K plus taxes.

I tried the waiting game to get a White Stealth on 18's ; eventually I gave up and got a white AWD on 18's.
For me, there was an expiring state of MA credit/rebate that only applied to the AWD not the stealth's so once I added paint premium or rim premium to the stealth the cost difference between it and AWD was much higher. If I was going to skip the tax credit/rebate I was only willing to do it for a white with 18's. That rebate is gone now so does not matter to you and never included FSD anyway.
 
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I've driven the S overnight and really enjoyed it.
I love the idea of having a lift back. Do I need that, no.
Do I like having a bit more exclusive car - sure, but does that really matter. No.
Just like I don't need a car that does 0-60 in 2.9 sec when a S 75D is plenty fast at 4.2. Both are faster than my current car at 5.1 seconds.

I have historically driven mid to large luxury cars, but the reality is that often I have at most one passenger so don't really need the extra space.

Of course with the S you get better ride quality, with the 3 you get better handling.

The better stereo on the 3, the dual screens on the S.

I think I'd be happy with either - but as a VERY frugal person put it down to long term cost of ownership.
 
I've driven the S overnight and really enjoyed it.
I love the idea of having a lift back. Do I need that, no.
Do I like having a bit more exclusive car - sure, but does that really matter. No.
Just like I don't need a car that does 0-60 in 2.9 sec when a S 75D is plenty fast at 4.2. Both are faster than my current car at 5.1 seconds.

I have historically driven mid to large luxury cars, but the reality is that often I have at most one passenger so don't really need the extra space.

Of course with the S you get better ride quality, with the 3 you get better handling.

The better stereo on the 3, the dual screens on the S.

I think I'd be happy with either - but as a VERY frugal person put it down to long term cost of ownership.

You are frugal but paying $7K extra for FSD which today is a mix of a few parlor tricks and vapor ware?

I love, love my 3 but cannot stand the way Telsa has promoted the FSD option. It may turn out to be great and totally worth every penny now and at resale, but that is a gamble on your part, not a frugal decision.
I have the regular included AP and it works great. If FSD ever becomes truly amazing I will save up and pay $10K for it at that time rather than $7 now on the 50/50 chance.
 
You are frugal but paying $7K extra for FSD which today is a mix of a few parlor tricks and vapor ware?

I love, love my 3 but cannot stand the way Telsa has promoted the FSD option. It may turn out to be great and totally worth every penny now and at resale, but that is a gamble on your part, not a frugal decision.
I have the regular included AP and it works great. If FSD ever becomes truly amazing I will save up and pay $10K for it at that time rather than $7 now on the 50/50 chance.

haha yah I agree that I don't like the way they have promoted FSD.
I want it mostly to be able to get the upgraded computers.
I think there will come a point they realize it takes a lot more than expected and it costs quite a bit more than $10k.
But who knows. We are far away from true FSD I suspect.

Since I am looking at used ones in 2 of the 3 cases, the cost of FSD was less then and has already been paid for by someone else - they took the hit for it (not to be a jerk)
 
Since I am looking at used ones in 2 of the 3 cases, the cost of FSD was less then and has already been paid for by someone else - they took the hit for it (not to be a jerk)

Just be aware - we've heard reports of Tesla turning off FSD on vehicles traded in and charging for it again in the used market. I don't have any hard examples, but others might ... Obviously not an issue if you're purchasing the used vehicle 3rd party, but purchasing via Tesla, that "let someone else take the hit for it" may not apply ..
 
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Just get the S. You really have no idea what the car will be like day to day. With the used S you get to find out for little cost, as there won't be much depreciation. There could be nasty surprises, but you always run that risk. In a year, reconsider. At that point you'll get to factor the Y into the equation. Meanwhile, you'll have been driving a Tesla for a year.

The only real mistake you can make here is to not get a Tesla ASAP.
 
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