Containment Hold Discussion Thread

[Sudsington]

Keep in mind, Tesla owns the Service centers... meaning shipping them to and storing them indefinitely waiting for a part costs them practically nothing (compared to renting parking near the factories).

It could be simple, it could be incredibly complex. Regardless, 99% of the car is ready to go, but too risky to release it with whatever the problem is... and could be days, months or quarters... its not a good place to be for a manufacturer regardless.

My bet is that it's actually firmware and that we'll see a flood of deliveries when the update actually hits. If Tesla pivoted to a different chip and the only consequence was a backlog of 10-20k deliveries due to a delayed firmware update, they're still better off than many car manufacturers:

"Here Are Car Models That Are Being Affected by the Chip Shortage" Here Are Car Models That Are Being Affected by the Chip Shortage

"Ford extends Chicago plant shutdown over global chip shortage - Chicago Tribune" Chicago-area Ford and Jeep auto plants remain shut down by global semiconductor shortage

GM and Ford cutting production at several North American plants due to chip shortage

For months, GM has been prioritizing manufacturing its most profitable vehicles, such as full-size pickups, by cutting production of cars and crossovers.

www.cnbc.com

 

[captainreynold]

Keep in mind, Tesla owns the Service centers... meaning shipping them to and storing them indefinitely waiting for a part costs them practically nothing (compared to renting parking near the factories).

It could be simple, it could be incredibly complex. Regardless, 99% of the car is ready to go, but too risky to release it with whatever the problem is... and could be days, months or quarters... its not a good place to be for a manufacturer regardless.

It’s not about having free parking at the service centers. It’s about Tesla having a production factory tooled for manufacturing model Y’s and putting pieces on them for production. The SC’s are not set up for that and don’t have the speed/capacity to do things in bulk.

 

[Jjrss]

It’s not about having free parking at the service centers. It’s about Tesla having a production factory tooled for manufacturing model Y’s and putting pieces on them for production. The SC’s are not set up for that and don’t have the speed/capacity to do things in bulk

You might have missed my point.

#s game. How many cars can they park outside the Fremont factory "for free" without impacting their ability to produce more of them? At some point the backlog impacts their ability to move around the lot.

How many more can they store at their numerous Service Centers (which they have to get shipped to regardless, and costs to ship already factored in, and trucks scheduled months out... etc etc). They are also trained to dismantle and repair/replace almost everything in the car with all of the required/specialized tooling on site.

Here's the problem though... the calculated risk is, if it's a part, or worse a complex internal part, Tesla runs the risk of damaging the cars during the repair prior to delivery. Scratches, tears, smudges etc... (which is already present in many cars from the factory, and potential cause of rejected deliveries by customers)

As of Oct 2020, there are 120 Service Centers. Thats roughly 83 cars each (assuming equal demand at each... some could have hundreds, others just dozens)

 

[Pianewman]

FWIW: I just returned from a DFW-Bradenton. FL road trip. On Wed, 5/20, I saw at least 5 Tesla car carriers, heading eastbound on I10.

 

[NikolaTs]

Regardless of what the cars are waiting for, whether it be hardware, software or firmware, this delay will make the usual frenzied pace of deliveries the last month of the quarter absolute mayhem for the servicecenters. Just the fact that there's been a few weeks of delay with little to no deliveries means they need to deliver that many more vehicles that last month of the quarter, ontop of whatever final "fixing" they need to do to prep them for delivery. I hope every car finds a home in time, and I genuinely hope it's just a firmware fix that the cars will auto-download, and they don't need to manually plug each one into a data port or something. Not to mention the quality control on a post-factory fix like this... I hope they know what they're doing but I wouldn't be surprised if this hits their #s for the quarter and thus stock price. I'm cautiously optimistic and hope I'm wrong.

 

[MrClappy]

FWIW: I just returned from a DFW-Bradenton. FL road trip. On Wed, 5/20, I saw at least 5 Tesla car carriers, heading eastbound on I10.

This gets my hopes up, I'm supposed to be picking up in Jacksonville. SA & dealership have given no information other than 'Tesla doesn't give us any guidance'.

 

[PhantomVirus]

pushed again for me. yesterday nothing in the app, (blank actually) today then moved the goal posts another week. Used to be May 23rd-June 8

Ordered April 14th - Model 3 LR w/19's

Estimated Delivery: June 12 - June 30​

 

[CrownDad]

pushed again for me. yesterday nothing in the app, (blank actually) today then moved the goal posts another week. Used to be May 23rd-June 8

Ordered April 14th - Model 3 LR w/19's

Estimated Delivery: June 12 - June 30​

Do you happen to be picking up at Cherry Hill?

i was blank for a fee days before this morning and now have a 6/6-6/29 date

 

[Wolfpacker83]

Regardless of what the cars are waiting for, whether it be hardware, software or firmware, this delay will make the usual frenzied pace of deliveries the last month of the quarter absolute mayhem for the servicecenters. Just the fact that there's been a few weeks of delay with little to no deliveries means they need to deliver that many more vehicles that last month of the quarter, ontop of whatever final "fixing" they need to do to prep them for delivery. I hope every car finds a home in time, and I genuinely hope it's just a firmware fix that the cars will auto-download, and they don't need to manually plug each one into a data port or something. Not to mention the quality control on a post-factory fix like this... I hope they know what they're doing but I wouldn't be surprised if this hits their #s for the quarter and thus stock price. I'm cautiously optimistic and hope I'm wrong.

I agree. Either a lot of deliveries get pushed back to July or the normal "delivery" process takes a hit and everything is rushed and frenzied.
I want to take my time when I take delivery and not be rushed or short-changed because of a backlog.

 

[djflux]

I think m delivery estimate might be blank because of my Texas delivery. Anyone else accepting delivery in Texas actually have an estimate in their order page?

Last estimate for me in the portal was 17-30 June (I’m expecting 30 June ). Been blank for a a week.

 

[NikolaTs]

Has anyone actually taken delivery in the last couple weeks? Seems like not just 10K cars are on hold, but maybe all model Ys?

Edit: nevermind, just confirmed my suspicions in the order tracking google sheet: only 5 VINs assigned in the last 2-3 weeks, and looking at the delivery dates they pretty much completely drop off a cliff end of April. Guess I'll stop hitting refresh, take a number, get some popcorn, June and July are gonna be a bumpy ride.

 

[PhantomVirus]

Do you happen to be picking up at Cherry Hill?

i was blank for a fee days before this morning and now have a 6/6-6/29 date

No - Princeton

 

[TomServo]

If this is a “firmware” update as many speculate, will cars currently on the road need it too? Might be hidden in the OTA updates we now get, but what are they updating that doesn’t affect cars on the road today?

 

[macgoober]

If this is a “firmware” update as many speculate, will cars currently on the road need it too? Might be hidden in the OTA updates we now get, but what are they updating that doesn’t affect cars on the road today?

Depends on what it pertains to. If (as many are speculating) it’s due to changes in the microprocessors that they are using, I suspect the answer would be no, it’s not needed for already delivered cars. The relevant pieces of the firmware update would only be applicable to cars with these specific chipsets. Current cars would still get the latest firmware, but it’s probably not going to include anything new.

 

[Skyeforge]

 

[1plavs]

My store leader in Bloomington IL told me the MY I ordered was delivered last week and told me once inspection was done he would send me pics and my VIN, which he did. Afterwards he basically said he has no eta on when the firmware update would happen, but said once it does happen I can pick it up the same day if I wanted to.

 

[63AMG]

There seem to be so many SAs saying that there is a firmware update happening this weekend and then all VINs/vehicles will be released and available. I saw one SA say to keep cash on hand for your downpayment/full payment as the VIN to delivery time may be seriously shortened because a bunch of vehicles are sitting in the lots around the country.

Who knows, maybe we'll find out if it actually was just a firmware update and that these SAs were not lying real soon after this weekend. Would be nice, at this point my Gen 3 HPWC is just taunting me every time I go into my garage.

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that it is only a firmware update. I can't imagine any part being simple enough to install and then verify correct installation that they'd ship thousands of cars away from the factory and trust the service centers/mobile service to get them ALL upgraded while still servicing all the other actual customers. I guess we'll find out soonTM.

I was told that they're not doing deliveries over the weekend because they're using every single employee to do the updates - so we should expect something in the next coming days.

 

[Thriteus]

I think m delivery estimate might be blank because of my Texas delivery. Anyone else accepting delivery in Texas actually have an estimate in their order page?

Last estimate for me in the portal was 17-30 June (I’m expecting 30 June ). Been blank for a a week.

I'm also taking deliver in Texas and I haven't had a missing EDD since I placed my order. It is currently listed as June 18 - June 30, but those dates mean nothing at this point.

 

[djflux]

I'm also taking deliver in Texas and I haven't had a missing EDD since I placed my order. It is currently listed as June 18 - June 30, but those dates mean nothing at this point.

Thanks for the reply. Yeah, I’ll just wait (im)patiently until 30 June.

 

[tacohell248]

Let’s take bets if we will hear if this was finally resolved today…