Coronavirus

[byeLT4]

My latest county update- 3,589 total cases, 2,589 recovered, 941 active, 59 deaths in a county of 92k.

Our active and new case numbers appear to be dropping fast. I have heard we are having to wait up to two weeks for test results and that testing is getting harder to come by. IIRC we spiked a little over 200 on daily cases when we had free testing for a few days, we only had 15 new cases yesterday.

 

[jerry33]

My latest county update- 3,589 total cases, 2,589 recovered, 941 active, 59 deaths in a county of 92k.

Our active and new case numbers appear to be dropping fast. I have heard we are having to wait up to two weeks for test results and that testing is getting harder to come by. IIRC we spiked a little over 200 on daily cases when we had free testing for a few days, we only had 15 new cases yesterday.

The easiest way to reduce the number of cases is to not test. It won't reduce the number of hospitalizations though (but those numbers are vetted through the Whitehouse, so there's a question of reporting confidence).

 

[NikolaACDC]

US health insurers doubled profits in second quarter amid pandemic

"The enormous medical response in America to the coronavirus pandemic has not put a drain on US health insurers, which doubled profits in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the same time last year.

The US fight against the virus has been marked by overwhelmed hospitals, testing delays and personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages, but the high profits reported by some insurers have underlined concerns about America’s for-profit healthcare model."
----
And with the apparent longer-term health problems for many recovered patients the hospital profits will catch up soon enough. As will medical bankruptcies.

 

[bkp_duke]

Medical insurers had increased profits because people were not going to the hospital or their doctors. All but the sickest were staying home due to the pandemic (i.e. fear of contracting COVID-19 at the hospital or doctor's office).

EDIT - and because most health insurance premiums are calculated annually, there have not been changes to most people's premiums.

They use less healthcare, but still pay the same for it.

 

[Earthpower]

Playing with explosives is a "youthful mistake"?

I dont know the details but how many folks play with explosives when young?

Rocket man? LOL

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Quite a bit of silliness today in the news about being immune for "just" three months. That's not what the CDC said. The CDC's guidance is closer to suggesting that there's really nothing to worry about (don't need to quarantine or get tested even if you have a known COVID exposure, etc.) for AT LEAST three months.

Not sure why the news picks the most inaccurate interpretation possible. Hopefully some of them got it right.

 

[dfwatt]

US health insurers doubled profits in second quarter amid pandemic

"The enormous medical response in America to the coronavirus pandemic has not put a drain on US health insurers, which doubled profits in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the same time last year.

The US fight against the virus has been marked by overwhelmed hospitals, testing delays and personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages, but the high profits reported by some insurers have underlined concerns about America’s for-profit healthcare model."
----
And with the apparent longer-term health problems for many recovered patients the hospital profits will catch up soon enough. As will medical bankruptcies.

Quite a bit of silliness today in the news about being immune for "just" three months. That's not what the CDC said. The CDC's guidance is closer to suggesting that there's really nothing to worry about (don't need to quarantine or get tested even if you have a known COVID exposure, etc.) for AT LEAST three months.

Not sure why the news picks the most inaccurate interpretation possible. Hopefully some of them got it right.

Yes it does seem like a strange way of framing things. Perhaps in the service of emphasizing the negative? Perhaps they think people will behave better I don't know.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Quite a bit of silliness today in the news about being immune for "just" three months. That's not what the CDC said. The CDC's guidance is closer to suggesting that there's really nothing to worry about (don't need to quarantine or get tested even if you have a known COVID exposure, etc.) for AT LEAST three months.

Not sure why the news picks the most inaccurate interpretation possible. Hopefully some of them got it right.

All the people who "got COVID" back in February are probably not immune though.

Are we due for another round of "The Coronavirus has mutated! Now more infectious! and has been since March" articles yet?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

All the people who "got COVID" back in February are probably not immune though.

Saw a Lancet article this morning claiming much greater spread in January/February based on blood samples but too lazy to dig it up and link it here. I am dubious, pretty easy to draw the wrong conclusions, but we will see, eventually.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Saw a Lancet article this morning claiming much greater spread in January/February based on blood samples but too lazy to dig it up and link it here. I am dubious, pretty easy to draw the wrong conclusions, but we will see, eventually.

Here it is. I am now not too lazy to post the link, but definitely am not going to critique this. It sounds like generally it does not agree with Trevor Bedford’s thoughts about the start of the epidemic, but not sure how far off it is. As I recall, Trevor’s Flu Project surveillance started getting hits in mid-February in Seattle.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30223-6/fulltext

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like still just 10% in Stockholm, 6% nationwide? Getting to herd immunity sure is slow!

Genomförda tester för covid-19 — Folkhälsomyndigheten

 

[eevee-fan]

Looks like still just 10% in Stockholm, 6% nationwide? Getting to herd immunity sure is slow!

Genomförda tester för covid-19 — Folkhälsomyndigheten

The quick way is to have mass gatherings in enclosed spaces without masks, offer no medical treatment and then just letting the weak die off. As long as people are taking precautions, it would take a long time to herd immunity. Also, as the % prior-infected goes up, the rate of spread slows down.

 

[msm859]

My latest county update- 3,589 total cases, 2,589 recovered, 941 active, 59 deaths in a county of 92k.

Our active and new case numbers appear to be dropping fast. I have heard we are having to wait up to two weeks for test results and that testing is getting harder to come by. IIRC we spiked a little over 200 on daily cases when we had free testing for a few days, we only had 15 new cases yesterday.

Seems pretty high. I live in a Nor Cal city of 100k with 769 cases. 12 deaths in the whole county of over 200k people.

 

[wdolson]

Fortunately that's looking unlikely with this "wave." It appears that doctors have gotten significantly better at treatment and it's likely that the number of hospitalizations in the Northeast was somewhat limited by capacity (and some state data (Florida) was missing).
View attachment 576085
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/2-metrics-7-day-average-curves
I'm worried about winter...

Treatment practices have improved and as @Dave EV said people may be going to the hospital sooner now. And with the administration playing all sorts of games with the numbers, it's hard to tell exactly what's going on. I haven't heard anything going on with the unexpected deaths numbers specifically, but with other numbers being played with, I wouldn't be surprised if those were being suppressed too.

It's hard to know what's going on exactly when you know your data is corrupted.

Saw a Lancet article this morning claiming much greater spread in January/February based on blood samples but too lazy to dig it up and link it here. I am dubious, pretty easy to draw the wrong conclusions, but we will see, eventually.

I know I've been told I'm an idiot here for claiming it, but I still think I had it in February. I lost my sense of taste and smell for a few days with clear sinuses and then had something akin to an asthma attack that lasted 2-3 weeks (I can't find any information on diseases that cause temporary loss of the sense of smell without sinus congestion other than COVID-19). The day after I got over it my partner came down with something that was like a mild chest cold with tightness of breath and a low fever that lasted about three days. Her hair started falling out about a month ago.

I wasn't able to get an antibody test until May and it was a poor one. I got a better one in June, but both came up negative. But there are also reports of people who were known to have had COVID that test negative for the antibody after 3 months.

An attorney my partner shares an office with went to the last Seahawks game in Seattle in late December or early January and everyone on the trip got sick within 2 weeks of getting back with COVID symptoms. In April one of his associate attorneys and his receptionist (who live together) both came down with COVID and the attorney should have been hospitalized, I wasn't sure he was going to make it. Despite being exposed to both of them just before getting sick, the guy who got something in Seattle in January never got anything.

 

[bkp_duke]

VISUAL PROOF that masks work (even the doubters should have problems disputing this):
Inexpensive, Accessible Device Provides Visual Proof that Masks Block Droplets | Duke Health

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeEBn4ttZZY

 

[NikolaACDC]

VISUAL PROOF that masks work (even the doubters should have problems disputing this):
Inexpensive, Accessible Device Provides Visual Proof that Masks Block Droplets | Duke Health

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeEBn4ttZZY

Florida sheriff bans his deputies and office visitors from wearing masks on a day his county broke records for Covid-19 deaths - CNN

I'm sure that sheriff can provide you with just as much proof that it isn't true, since
"The fact is, the amount of professionals that give the reason why we should, I can find the exact same amount of professionals that say why we shouldn't"

But somebody in Kansas says they do work
Norman: Kansas has become natural experiment in mask mandate battle

"Gov. Laura Kelly’s statewide mask mandate has turned Kansas into a natural experiment, according to Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Lee Norman.
After Kelly issued the mandate at the beginning of July and counties made the decision to follow suit or not, only 15 counties chose to make masks a requirement.
The remaining 90 counties that chose not to mandate masks are serving as the state’s control group and, according to Norman, they are losing the fight.
“The experimental group is winning the battle,” Norman said. “All of the improvement in the case development comes from those counties wearing masks.”
While the state’s overall case count is improving and starting to show a favorable trend line, Norman said, the counties not wearing masks remain flat."
-------
Chart is here:
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/...verage-of-Daily-Cases-Per-100K-Population-002

 

[bkp_duke]

Chart is here:
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/...verage-of-Daily-Cases-Per-100K-Population-002

While I agree with the assertion, I have a MAJOR beef with that graph.

Look at the vertical axis. It's been zoomed in on to make the effect look larger than it actually is. That graph would never pass peer review for a scientific journal, the reviewers would require it to be re-generated with an Axis that begins at 0. If you do that, then the approximate "protective factor" of masks in Kansas counties that have mask mandates, is about a 25% reduction.

 

[madodel]

VISUAL PROOF that masks work (even the doubters should have problems disputing this):
Inexpensive, Accessible Device Provides Visual Proof that Masks Block Droplets | Duke Health

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeEBn4ttZZY

Thanks for this. I still see people insisting masks make no difference. This helps refute the stupidity and might change some minds.

 

[NikolaACDC]

FDA approves saliva-based coronavirus test viewed as 'major game changer'

"The Food and Drug Administration on Saturday issued an emergency use authorization for the SalivaDirect COVID-19 diagnostic test developed by the Yale School of Public Health."
...
"And, because its cheap and has a fast turnaround time, people will likely be able to get tested more frequently, which will in turn increase diagnostic accuracy."
...
"Andy Slavitt @
3. The most important reason is because the most important testing feature is CADENCE. How frequently can we test people.
At a $10 test, you can test every day or every couple days. This is even more important than accuracy. But on accuracy...
4. Official data shows 88-94%. If you assume 90% sensitivity, this is the best accuracy (sensitivity) of any saliva test.
(It also means if you took it twice, for $20, you would have 99% accuracy)."

 

[dfwatt]

FDA approves saliva-based coronavirus test viewed as 'major game changer'

"The Food and Drug Administration on Saturday issued an emergency use authorization for the SalivaDirect COVID-19 diagnostic test developed by the Yale School of Public Health."
...
"And, because its cheap and has a fast turnaround time, people will likely be able to get tested more frequently, which will in turn increase diagnostic accuracy."
...
"Andy Slavitt @
3. The most important reason is because the most important testing feature is CADENCE. How frequently can we test people.
At a $10 test, you can test every day or every couple days. This is even more important than accuracy. But on accuracy...
4. Official data shows 88-94%. If you assume 90% sensitivity, this is the best accuracy (sensitivity) of any saliva test.
(It also means if you took it twice, for $20, you would have 99% accuracy)."

Those numbers are misleading. The real question is what percentage of people who have enough virus to be shedding it does the antigen test catch versus the more expensive PCR test? This graph below from Dr Michael Mina (who is one of the leading experts on antigen testing) suggests virtually all of them. In other words once you get below a CT of about 35 (inverse logarithmic scale with lower numbers meaning much more virus), the antigen tests catch virtually everybody, and they have the additional advantage on top of being inexpensive and fast (5-10 minutes) that they don't yield nearly as many or close to zero false positives in folks who have just recently been infected but now have no viable virus. PCR will often times return a positive result in those folks which offers no clinical or public health / epidemiologic benefit because they are no longer contagious.

So . . . to summarize pluses and minuses, the antigen test is probably 50/100 times cheaper, way faster, and doesn't generate false positives at the tail end of an infectious period. But will not identify folks who are late in the incubation period and potentially about to become ill and/or contagious. But it will catch those same folks in the very earliest days of that contagious process, whether they are symptomatic or asymptomatic.

The discussion about antigen testing has also been poorly framed. It's not the antigen test . . . .vs. the PCR test, both have their uses and places. But in a runaway pandemic, the distribution of antigen test kits to virtually everybody who wants one would be a game changer. You can test your kids and people coming into your home, and yourselves, and if the tests are negative, very little chance that someone is shedding virus in quantities that would make them contagious. They might the next day, but with a cheap Test, you can test nearly every day or every other day. Like I said this thing is a game changer. But there is one incredibly important catch in all this. If you distribute this to individuals and families, people in a sense would be on an honor system to restrict their activities and quarantine/break transmission opportunities if they test positive. In our culture where the attitude is any restriction on my freedom is unacceptable, even if it protects your freedom, it's unclear whether people would be responsible enough and invested in the common welfare – something our culture does not value – to do the right thing. Rugged individualism is not a good basis for a public health effort in a pandemic however. It's a shame because in a culture where people embrace social responsibility, the widespread distribution of these kits would allow us to virtually stop transmission dead in its tracks. Literally.