Coronavirus

[wdolson]

One thing I'm struck by is how high the CFR has been in Florida, around 2%, higher than in prior waves. That may reflect the effect of an overwhelmed health care system. And Florida's vax rate at the start of the delta wave was only slightly lower than the national average at the time.

I'm very concerned about some of these states with mediocre vaccination coverage that were also spared by earlier waves. In states like Alaska there may still be 30-40% of the adult population with no COVID immunity at all. It only takes about 10% of the population getting COVID to overwhelm the hospital system.

Alaska is getting overwhelmed with cases now.

3 weeks ago Florida was at the top of the cases per capita according to the Washington Post Covid page. Today Florida is the bottom half of the rankings.

It's burning out in the South and it's moved to Appalachia and the interior West as well as Alaska. Nebraska started reporting cases again and it's now a hotspot. Idaho, parts of Montana, and Wyoming are a mess too. Eastern Washington and Oregon don't look so great either. In Oregon Multnomah county (Portland) has one of the lowest rates in the state, but the eastern half of the state is a mess.

 

[madodel]

Pregnant Women Who Get COVID Vaccine Pass Antibodies to Newborns

 

[bkp_duke]

Pregnant Women Who Get COVID Vaccine Pass Antibodies to Newborns

This is good, but not surprising. Pregnant women pass the vast majority of antibodies to their children.

Those antibodies are good till 4-6 mo of life (not by coincidence, this is when we start vaccinating children against "the really bad stuff").

 

[dhanson865]

Bottom line: If you are vaccinated your chances of serious illness or death from COVID are practically nil. Hospitals are full to overflowing with COVID patients, nearly all of whom are unvaccinated. It's plain on the face of it: Vaccines work. So much so that a rational society would make vaccination a requirement for receiving medical care and would enforce mandatory supervised quarantine for all unvaccinated people.

We could stop this virus in its tracks if we just locked all unvaccinated people in their homes for a month.

The person I mention was double vaccinated Pfizer and died from it just a week or two ago.

 

[dhanson865]

Smokers up to 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid, study says

Data also finds smokers more likely to die from disease compared with those who have never smoked

www.theguardian.com

 

[daniel]

The person I mention was double vaccinated Pfizer and died from it just a week or two ago.

Nothing is 100%. The exception does not disprove the rule. Virtually all vaccinated people in hospital have underlying health issues, such as being immunocompromised.

And if the rest of the population got their damm vaccine instead of spreading disinformation, the vulnerable people who cannot develop immunity would be protected.

 

[dhanson865]

Nothing is 100%.

exactly, and you saying "practically nil" is the same thing as suggesting it is.

0.0000001 and 99.99999 are two sides of the same coin.

 

[msm859]

You are absolutely correct. But the idiot anti-mask logic is that rather than catching and stopping all those pathogens, the mask is making the kids inhale them. Of course masks should be washed.

So if they saw a bullet proof vest, would they say they were bad for you because there were a bunch of bullets in them? It takes a special kind of stupid to not see the benefit of something that STOPS deadly things from getting to you.

 

[wdolson]

So if they saw a bullet proof vest, would they say they were bad for you because there were a bunch of bullets in them? It takes a special kind of stupid to not see the benefit of something that STOPS deadly things from getting to you.

It's the same as looking at the filter in a protective mask used by a coal miner and arguing that coal miners shouldn't wear masks because of all the stuff found in the filters.

 

[wdolson]

Kaiser has been tracking who is getting the vaccine and who isn't. Back in June and July there was a big gap based on ethnic groups with white adults being the bulk of the vaccinated. However that has changed dramatically. Now more Hispanics are vaccinated than white.

The big divide now? Political party. 90% of Democrats are vaccinated and only 58% of Republicans. Among those who say they will definitely not get the vaccine, Democrats refusing are a tiny minority while 23% of Republicans say they won't get vaccinated.

KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: September 2021

 

[NikolaACDC]

Somewhat interesting graph from a reddit post

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/pxizb1

They're (presumably) not hiding data, but it sure makes it harder to see what's happening.

 

[daniel]

exactly, and you saying "practically nil" is the same thing as suggesting it is.

0.0000001 and 99.99999 are two sides of the same coin.

0.0000001 is practically nil. Vaccines work!!! And they are safe!!! Horse de-wormer, OTOH, only works to kill worms in cattle, and is very dangerous if the dose is not right.

I'm getting my booster shot today. Probably don't need it. I'm probably 99.99% protected against serious covid and 95% protected against mild or asymptomatic covid. But if the booster raises those numbers to 99.999% and 96% respectively, and they say I'm eligible for it (because of my age) then I'm getting it. I get every vaccine I'm offered because vaccines are the safest and most effective medical intervention ever devised and only a moron would refuse them.

 

[madodel]

Any comments?

Q&A: Johns Hopkins doctor discusses importance of nuance when dealing with COVID-19

"There’s a lot of people who say “I had COVID, I was sick and recovered. I don’t feel that I need the vaccine.” And right now the science is on their side. Now that could change, but we’ve got a good year-and-a-half of observational data on people who had the infection. We do not see reinfections cause severe illness, and when they happen they are infinitesimally rare. Turns out, the natural immunity from prior infection is 27 times more effective than vaccines in preventing symptomatic COVID. Now, I think a lot of us have been afraid to talk about this and public health officials have not been recognizing it because it’s a nuanced thing. And because you don’t want people to go out there and deliberately get the infection to try to get that immunity. We want people to get vaccinated instead, because it’s a much lower risk path. You don’t want to risk the consequences of COVID."​

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Any comments?

Q&A: Johns Hopkins doctor discusses importance of nuance when dealing with COVID-19

​

​

"There’s a lot of people who say “I had COVID, I was sick and recovered. I don’t feel that I need the vaccine.” And right now the science is on their side. Now that could change, but we’ve got a good year-and-a-half of observational data on people who had the infection. We do not see reinfections cause severe illness, and when they happen they are infinitesimally rare. Turns out, the natural immunity from prior infection is 27 times more effective than vaccines in preventing symptomatic COVID. Now, I think a lot of us have been afraid to talk about this and public health officials have not been recognizing it because it’s a nuanced thing. And because you don’t want people to go out there and deliberately get the infection to try to get that immunity. We want people to get vaccinated instead, because it’s a much lower risk path. You don’t want to risk the consequences of COVID."​

Prior infection provides some very substantial and unique protection (mucosal immunity, broader antibody spectrum). However, this text above is overstated.
In the recent prison study, prior infection resulted in an attack rate of 57% (43% efficacy), similar to the protection provided by Moderna vaccination with no prior infection.
Compare to an attack rate of 5% in vaccinated individuals with prior infection. (Super immunity!)

So I would guess that prior infection provides immunity similar to a 2-dose vaccine, but probably inferior to a 3-dose course.

I think documented infected individuals should be allowed to take a single dose and claim full vaccination (and there should be a study done to check the efficacy).

Prison study:

Coronavirus

Note the attack rate for completely unprotected people was 100%.

Obviously not completely controlled study but the differences in the various groups are quite stark.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Any comments?

Q&A: Johns Hopkins doctor discusses importance of nuance when dealing with COVID-19

​

​

"There’s a lot of people who say “I had COVID, I was sick and recovered. I don’t feel that I need the vaccine.” And right now the science is on their side. Now that could change, but we’ve got a good year-and-a-half of observational data on people who had the infection. We do not see reinfections cause severe illness, and when they happen they are infinitesimally rare. Turns out, the natural immunity from prior infection is 27 times more effective than vaccines in preventing symptomatic COVID. Now, I think a lot of us have been afraid to talk about this and public health officials have not been recognizing it because it’s a nuanced thing. And because you don’t want people to go out there and deliberately get the infection to try to get that immunity. We want people to get vaccinated instead, because it’s a much lower risk path. You don’t want to risk the consequences of COVID."​

That Israeli study showed those with (mostly Pfizer) vaccine alone had 13x as many confirmed infections as those with natural immunity (27x for symptomatic infections). They did a pretty good job matching populations. A third group with natural immunity plus one shot got the best protection.

I disagree with Dr. Makary comparing it to the flu. Covid is much more deadly, justifying a stronger public health response. But I agree the CDC and other sources have worked overtime to suppress the natural immunity story. This MMWR headline:

Vaccination Offers Higher Protection than Previous COVID-19 Infection​

clearly wants us to believe a lie -- that vaccines are more effective than natural immunity. The text reveals they actually tested infection + vaccine vs. infection w/o vaccine. The study did NOT evaluate infection vs. vaccine as the headline claims.

Other sources deflect away from the question by talking only about variations in natural immunity, uncertainty about how long natural immunity lasts, etc. All true, but obvious attempts to misdirect. I want people to get vaccinated, I'm just not a fan of lying to make it happen.

This article mentions 25.6k vaccinated Alabamans caught Covid vs. 8.6k re-infections. AL has 42% fully vaccinated and 16% with confirmed infections, so a slightly higher percentage of vaccinated people caught it than those with natural immunity. It's raw data with no correction for age/timing/co-morbidities/etc., so you can't draw firm conclusions. But it's hard to imagine these confounding variables overcoming natural immunity's alleged 27x advantage, which makes me question the Israeli study. The prison study above also shows nothing like a 13-27x ratio, then again with only 7 inmates in the "previously infection but unvaccinated" group I can't put much stock in it.

Side note, 78% of fully vaccinated prisoners getting Covid shows the vaccines aren't the bulletproof armor "Big Pharma" originally sold us. Still better to get a shot, even if you already had Covid.

 

[jerry33]

That Israeli study showed those with (mostly Pfizer) vaccine alone had 13x as many confirmed infections as those with natural immunity (27x for symptomatic infections). They did a pretty good job matching populations. A third group with natural immunity plus one shot got the best protection.

I disagree with Dr. Makary comparing it to the flu. Covid is much more deadly, justifying a stronger public health response. But I agree the CDC and other sources have worked overtime to suppress the natural immunity story. This MMWR headline:

Vaccination Offers Higher Protection than Previous COVID-19 Infection​

clearly wants us to believe a lie -- that vaccines are more effective than natural immunity. The text reveals they actually tested infection + vaccine vs. infection w/o vaccine. The study did NOT evaluate infection vs. vaccine as the headline claims.

Other sources deflect away from the question by talking only about variations in natural immunity, uncertainty about how long natural immunity lasts, etc. All true, but obvious attempts to misdirect. I want people to get vaccinated, I'm just not a fan of lying to make it happen.

This article mentions 25.6k vaccinated Alabamans caught Covid vs. 8.6k re-infections. AL has 42% fully vaccinated and 16% with confirmed infections, so a slightly higher percentage of vaccinated people caught it than those with natural immunity. It's raw data with no correction for age/timing/co-morbidities/etc., so you can't draw firm conclusions. But it's hard to imagine these confounding variables overcoming natural immunity's alleged 27x advantage, which makes me question the Israeli study. The prison study above also shows nothing like a 13-27x ratio, then again with only 7 inmates in the "previously infection but unvaccinated" group I can't put much stock in it.

Side note, 78% of fully vaccinated prisoners getting Covid shows the vaccines aren't the bulletproof armor "Big Pharma" originally sold us. Still better to get a shot, even if you already had Covid.

Vaccines are only bullet-proof armour if enough of the population is vaccinated. That hasn't happened. Sweden tried the "natural infection" way, and it didn't work out so well.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Side note, 78% of fully vaccinated prisoners getting Covid shows the vaccines aren't the bulletproof armor "Big Pharma" originally sold us.

Caveat: this study did not mention symptoms, and I suspect that testing was common and may have picked up some asymptomatic infections.

While the efficacy against symptomatic COVID is not as high as the trials indicated (and it has nothing to do with it being “sold” - it is what the data showed at that time), it’s also not as low as the prison study shows, probably. The answer is somewhere in between.

I think Dr. Makary did a disservice to advocates of natural immunity with his quotes. Quoting debunked studies saying heart inflammation is as common as hospitalization in young people is a disservice to his argument. The Israel data is a little unclear, to say the least. And saying RSV is the primary issue in children is also disingenuous. And saying that severe reinfections are unheard of - also false (just like saying severe infection/death with vaccination is unheard of).

Anyway, hopefully we’ll get some data at some point that natural immunity plus a boost is ideal. Everyone else is getting boosted, and it may well be required at some point, so no reason prior infections should be that different.
If I had been previously infected I would definitely get vaccinated at a timing recommended by my physician (best to wait ~3 months from an immune perspective - I think).

On a related topic…are we ever going to increase primary series vaccine spacing to 8-12 weeks in the US? Or are we going to keep compromising robust immunity? It sounds like there is every reason to believe that getting the second dose too early cuts off (resets) germinal center activity (it restarts again after the second dose), and likely reduces average protection levels between the second and third dose, and perhaps limits the diversity of protection against variants. It’s weird that we talk about data, yet are completely unable to implement a dynamic data-driven response to optimizing public health.
Germinal center background. Prof Crotty has some comments on the effects of the second vaccination, in the TWIV video linked a couple weeks ago:

Pfizer Vaccine Induces Immune Structures Key to Lasting Immunity

In the armpit lymph nodes of people who had received the mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, researchers found germinal centers needed to generate long-lived antibody-making cells.

www.the-scientist.com

Some transcripts of TWIV just so no need to watch it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442145026612633602

 

[wdolson]

All this talk about natural immunity vs vaccine, there is a downside. An article today says that 1/3 of people who get COVID have some long haul symptoms for at least 6 months.
Long Covid is a bigger problem than we thought

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

All this talk about natural immunity vs vaccine, there is a downside. An article today says that 1/3 of people who get COVID have some long haul symptoms for at least 6 months.
Long Covid is a bigger problem than we thought

Yeah, if the people who advocated for recognizing natural immunity didn't ramble on about how it is better than vaccination, and how vaccination can cause problems in young people, they'd be much more credible. Unfortunately the doctor linked above went there, which destroyed his argument (even though he mentioned the hazards of COVID as well).

The only thing up for discussion is how to treat and manage people who have PREVIOUSLY been infected. I think the difficulty in this argument is why shouldn't the people who previously were infected receive at least one dose of vaccine? What's the downside? I'd be ok with recognizing natural immunity as sufficient for a 3-6 month window, whereupon a single dose would be required for "full vaccination" status (but I think this argument needs data to support it, to be clear).

 

[daniel]

I got my booster today. I got it at a clinic, so it was so painless I almost didn't feel the needle. (Pharmacists seldom have the skill of nurses.) In one week it will be eight months since I got my second dose (Pfizer). I don't know how necessary it was, because I don't consider myself capable of judging the conflicting opinions of the medical experts. But I get every vaccine I'm offered. They offered, and I got it. No side effects yet, but it's only been about 3 1/2 hours. About 30 hours after the second dose I experienced mild chills lasting two hours. After the first dose, nothing. Some very slight sensitivity to pressure at the injection site both times.

A friend who refused the vaccine at first, saying "I never get sick, so I don't need it" finally did get it, and if all goes to schedule she'll have gotten her second dose today.