Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yes, I've noticed you have a hard time understanding many things, and yet you keep posting as though you do. Please stop. This is the wrong thread for discussing this topic in any case.

Haha. I was talking about Elon’s pronouncements on coronavirus; seems relevant in a thread on coronavirus in the Tesla Investor Discussion forum.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It was tone deaf perhaps, but he was completely right, and corona virus policies optimize the health of the healthcare industry against the health of the nation. (And that is usual. Typical health guidance benefits the healthcare industry greatly against the benefit of people. (e.g. eat low fat high carb food, take statins whether it would benefit you or not, etc. etc. and then etc.) It is well understood who is at risk, and those should be (self) quarantined. The rest of the population would reach heard immunity much faster, which in turn would reduce the time needed for the quarantine. Number of people committing suicide etc. because of the economic disruption will be much higher than the extra slightly faster death of late stage geezers.

I would just say that that seems contrary to what the public health experts say, and there is a fair amount we do not know about this disease when it comes to younger people. It’s not like a 0.2% fatality rate amongst the typically invulnerable 20-50 year old class is a walk in the park - even if some of those do have pre-existing conditions. Do you really know how dangerous this is?

I personally do not want to lose friends, and with a mortality rate of 0.2% in that lower risk group, it is virtually assured that I will lose someone dear to me, if everyone I know gets it.

I don't want to spread FUD at all, but it is not always a trivial illness for young people, from what I understand.

 

[linux-works]

I just hard from a reputable source that the PM of Canada Justin Trudeau will be announcing tomorrow at 13:00 EST/10:00 PST that Canada will officially be shut down sometime tomorrow and all borders will be closed

 

[Fact Checking]

China is very confusing to me. I know people there and it seems like they're having a better, yet delayed response, despite what the media say.

It's pretty simple IMO, and South Korea confirmed it: extreme and consistent social distancing and the tracing of infections works, and the outbreak dies down.

Covid-19 cannot spread while people self-quarantine, avoid gatherings, schools are closed, mass transportation is restricted, workplaces are well prepared and monitored.

The GF3 video about containment measures gives a good notion of how it works in China.

Harder to do in western democracies, but the rising body count brings people and policymakers to their senses.

I don't know. UK has chosen a contrarian and potentially very dangerous route, which is to basically do nothing and reach herd immunity quickly. I'm closely monitoring their numbers.

Yes, the U.S. and the UK experiment to intentionally infect everyone is troubling, because it removes the chance to eradicate the virus via containment like China or South Korea is doing, and splits the world economy into two fundamentally incompatible segments:

• No western democracy that has stabilized and contained infections will be able to receive regular passenger traffic from virus countries.
• Even flow of goods will be impacted negatively: if the virus can survive for days/weeks on certain surfaces then the UK won't be able to trade with the EU at all for an extended time, or will have drastically shrunk markets - and forget about food and premium products from virus countries. Brexit slump will be seen as a walk in the park...
• @Right_Said_Fred already provided a data point of this process: EU food supplement companies are avoiding Chinese suppliers and are raiding all other suppliers, putting companies without Chinese suppliers into distress as well. If the UK becomes a virus country, they'll not just be on an unofficial blacklist, but safety regulations will make a lot of UK goods illegal to sell in the EU and will attach instant negative "virus" stigma.
• If I was a UK citizen I'd be suing immediately to stop the madness.
• No western democracy will be able to "choose" herd immunity and become a virus country, because it will kill tens of thousands per 10 million citizens in a well documented way (Covid-19 virus test applied to autopsy results) and rip the country apart. It's one thing if the unavoidable flu season kills indiscriminately, but it's entirely different to start a killing season intentionally. Any policymaker doing that could be charged with thousands of counts of homicide. No court will allow it, and no democratic process can result in the traceable demise of tens of thousands of citizens. Italy is already treating quarantine breaking as attempted homicide.

Only a vaccine will resolve this incompatibility - but how long until a new vaccine can be safely administered to the millions of the 60+ years old populace?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Haha. I was talking about Elon’s pronouncements on coronavirus; seems relevant in a thread on coronavirus in the Tesla Investor Discussion forum.

I suppose it would be the right thread if you had anything to contribute on the topic. As it turns out, all you are doing is expressing your (profoundly ignorant) opinion, which is of no use to anybody.

For example "He needs to be focused 100% on protecting his employees". What idiocy. He needs to be focused 100% on the success of Tesla. Protecting his employees is a (small) part of that. Obviously.

 

[dhanson865]

Transcript: “So most people have a fear of acquiring the virus. I think a good way of doing it is to imagine that you do have the virus and change your behavior so that you’re not transmitting it. Don’t think about changing your behavior so you won’t get it. Think about changing your behavior so you don’t give it to somebody else.”

 

[Causalien]

I know it's expired but if our health care system collapses this could be the only hope if it gets real in my world. About 60 pills, It's for my elderly parents. My mom has lupus and stopped taking it because her vision (side effect) became worse. Hope it stays unused.
View attachment 522246

They can start their zinc supplement now. It only works if you have enough zinc.

 

[Fact Checking]

• @Right_Said_Fred already provided a data point of this process: EU food supplement companies are avoiding Chinese suppliers and are raiding all other suppliers, putting companies without Chinese suppliers into distress as well. If the UK becomes a virus country, they'll not just be on an unofficial blacklist, but safety regulations will make a lot of UK goods illegal to sell in the EU and will attach instant negative "virus" stigma.

• If I was a UK citizen I'd be suing immediately to stop the madness.

See:

The New Coronavirus Can Live On Surfaces For 2-3 Days — Here's How To Clean Them​

 

[gerebgraus]

I would just say that that seems contrary to what the public health experts say, and there is a fair amount we do not know about this disease when it comes to younger people. It’s not like a 0.2% fatality rate amongst the typically invulnerable 20-50 year old class is a walk in the park - even if some of those do have pre-existing conditions. Do you really know how dangerous this is?

I personally do not want to lose friends, and with a mortality rate of 0.2% in that lower risk group, it is virtually assured that I will lose someone dear to me, if everyone I know gets it.

I don't want to spread FUD at all, but it is not always a trivial illness for young people, from what I understand.

You are not contradicting me. There is no question that we are speculating based on incomplete information. My point is that at this point based on the best available information statistically speaking other than the infectious disease industry everybody would be better off with voluntary social distancing or self quarantining than with the methods used here. In more details: Why draconian measures may not work: Two experts say we should prioritize those at risk from COVID-19 than to try to contain the uncontainable

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

You are not contradicting me. There is no question that we are speculating based on incomplete information. My point is that at this point based on the best available information statistically speaking other than the infectious disease industry everybody would be better off with voluntary social distancing or self quarantining than with the methods used here. In more details: Why draconian measures may not work: Two experts say we should prioritize those at risk from COVID-19 than to try to contain the uncontainable

I don't see why we should go away from something that has worked twice now: Testing people and monitoring people like we never have before, and as we are building that infrastructure, bring down the numbers (what we're doing now).

It's true that the endgame is very uncertain with this approach. But I believe that with sufficient resources allocated to making testing easily accessible and fast for the endgame, it can probably be brought under control.

If you assume a vaccine can be produced, you only need to have the containment of spot fires work successfully for a year or so. But it's true that you really can't let anything get going again - otherwise everything has to be shut down again.

I feel like the biggest problem we've had to date is lack of visibility - obviously spending tens of billions on generating fast tests that everyone could access for free, along with extensive monitoring equipment, tracing of GPS locations, etc., is a minuscule cost to bear. We could have had some of that in place already and we'd be in a far better place - I wanted that weeks ago. But we failed. For example, the Seattle case was propagating for a month before it was detected. There's no reason that had to happen - positive cases could have been found weeks earlier, even with the primitive monitoring system that was in place (the samples were taken, but they were not allowed to be tested).

I think with excellent visiblity and excellent screening (and possible quarantining) of passengers from overseas, and extensive resources dedicated to contact tracing, we can probably successfully do containment for the next year or so, after the explosion of cases is taken care of (which will take 6-8 weeks). Spending tens of billions is super inexpensive; we can basically spend as much as we want on it to make it awesome.

But, I'm just guessing. Just seems like we should repeat what has worked with tweaks to make it even better. The endgame, I agree, is uncertain.

 

[heltok]

If I was president this would be my strategy:

Immediately introduce a full lockdown for 14days. Catch almost everyone with symptoms. Lock down borders, introduce a tiered system for people entering the country like Singapore. After that do contact tracing on every new case while maintaining social distancing and cancelling all public events. Mandatory 14 days stay home quarentine for anyone who has been in contact with anyone who was infected.

During the lockdown greatly expand testing capacity and testing speed, at some point force everyone entering the country to do a breathalyzer test. Set up temperature checks at every hotel, every subway station, every shopping center, every supermarket etc, mandatory 7days stay home notice for anyone caught a with fever. Mandatory usage of masks for anyone with a running nose or cough. Greatly increase ICU capacity and protective gear for all medical staff.

Flattening the curve and herd immunity are both big lies, the numbers needed are staggering and in about a year we will have vaccine so very little time is gained by this anyway. People advocating this haven’t done the math.

 

[KarenRei]

Harder to do in western democracies, but the rising body count brings people and policymakers to their senses.

The thing is, I don't see people "coming to their senses"; the west is having this weird reaction of oscillating between either "do virtually nothing" and "shut down every iota of movement and economic activity". It's so strange (and frustrating) to see. It's like, hello people, there is a middle ground. You can continue economic activity in most fields, but with strict disease control measures mandated on businesses (akin to what China has done). It's not "all or nothing". It's not a choice between "everyone shows up without masks, with handwashing only 'encouraged', with no taking the temperatures of employees, with no actions taken to ensure employee separation, etc" and "everyone is locked in their houses all day"

 

[KarenRei]

BTW, in case anyone missed it, this was Wales yesterday (the Stereophonics held a concert, despite widespread concern):

stereophonics on Twitter

They did this just a day after they'd already gotten criticism for continuing their tour in Manchester the day before:

WTF is wrong with people... the band for continuing their tour, the audience for showing up, and both national and local governments for allowing this to continue?

 

[samppa]

Our government 5 head ministers are in a meeting now, we're waiting on info on what they decide to do next.

Whatever it is, I have to say they are pretty

 

[aubreymcfato]

If you think EM does this for money you've misunderstood him all along. It's always been about trying to create the most positive sustainable impact in the least amount of time. Of course this is going to slow things down and he doesn't want that, but he'll find a way to keep progress going as quickly as humanly possible during such a time when most people are running around trying to secure tp.

We all hope that.
Can we just say we have seen him dragging his feet for now?
See the tweets and the alleged mail by Buzzfeed (yes, I know it was likely an hit-piece, so keep it or discard it as evidence as you see fit).

 

[SO16]

We all hope that.
Can we just say we have seen him dragging his feet for now?
See the tweets and the alleged mail by Buzzfeed (yes, I know it was likely an hit-piece, so keep it or discard it as evidence as you see fit).

Which tweets of his do you have a problem with? The ones that basically say fear and panic is bad/dumb?

 

[bhzmark]

They can start their zinc supplement now. It only works if you have enough zinc.

None of the case reports or preliminary research summaries or statements by Chinese and Korean medical officials mention any zinc supplementation with chloroquine. Probably you just shouldn't be zinc deficient. Only vegetarians are likely to be deficient. zinc sources are most meats, especially shellfish, and most especially oysters.

Also blood plasma of the cured is interesting.

Top medical adviser recommends anti-malarial drug | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

 

[renim]

an Hong Kong perspective
South Korea’s coronavirus response is the opposite of China and Italy – and it’s working
South Korea’s virus response is the opposite of China’s – and it works

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I would just say that that seems contrary to what the public health experts say, and there is a fair amount we do not know about this disease when it comes to younger people. It’s not like a 0.2% fatality rate amongst the typically invulnerable 20-50 year old class is a walk in the park - even if some of those do have pre-existing conditions. Do you really know how dangerous this is?

I personally do not want to lose friends, and with a mortality rate of 0.2% in that lower risk group, it is virtually assured that I will lose someone dear to me, if everyone I know gets it.

I don't want to spread FUD at all, but it is not always a trivial illness for young people, from what I understand.

In The Netherlands half of the people with corona who end up in the IC are under 50! We have even have a 16 year old with no existing pre-condition on a respirator. And a young marathon runner with extremely good stamina and health had also been admitted to the IC. So it doesn't just threaten people over 70 with pre-existing conditions. No one is 100% safe.

 

[Johnny Ma]

The thing is, I don't see people "coming to their senses"; the west is having this weird reaction of oscillating between either "do virtually nothing" and "shut down every iota of movement and economic activity". It's so strange (and frustrating) to see. It's like, hello people, there is a middle ground. You can continue economic activity in most fields, but with strict disease control measures mandated on businesses (akin to what China has done). It's not "all or nothing". It's not a choice between "everyone shows up without masks, with handwashing only 'encouraged', with no taking the temperatures of employees, with no actions taken to ensure employee separation, etc" and "everyone is locked in their houses all day"

I'm afraid the people that have been promoting panic from day 1 are going to be right, but for the wrong reasons. We're nuking the global economy instead of the virus. The worst thing is, when this is over and far fewer people died than we expected, those in charge will congratulate themselves and be sure that panic is what saved us. Panic not only won't save our parents, it will also hurt our children's futures. The worst of both worlds.