Coronavirus

[MXLRplus]

The biggest difference with this virus, is it's the first time massive hoarding and opportunism has reached this scale in history.

I'm afraid the people that have been promoting panic from day 1 are going to be right, but for the wrong reasons. We're nuking the global economy instead of the virus. The worst thing is, when this is over and far fewer people died than we expected, those in charge will congratulate themselves and be sure that panic is what saved us. Panic not only won't save our parents, it will also hurt our children's futures. The worst of both worlds.

I still can't understand why a significant segment of the US population sees the largest financial downturn in US history as something wonderful. The market has lost 29% of it's value in under a month, and we have not hit bottom.

It's caused by panic. Not by any disease.

 

[Causalien]

Yeah, it's these stories that are going to become more clear in the coming days. There are always exceptions like this in any disease, as Dr. Fauci has said. But, it's this true % of hospitalizations that I worry about in this age group. It seems to me it is no ordinary cold or flu, even for these young people.

I think people who minimize this risk at this point in time, to those in the 20-50 age group, are doing so prematurely. Let's see how things look in a week. The data from China suggests a 0.2% case fatality rate in this age group. That's really bad. But I'm waiting for precise data from the US, after actual widespread testing is rolled out, and we can get the denominator figured out.

But to me it seems like the answer is going to be "this is bad." Let's just stamp this thing out and not minimize it...at least that's my gut feeling about this at the moment. We'll see.

The more worrisome aspect of this is the potential for the second wave to hit the younger generation as has happened before with SARS. The narrative that this virus only kills boomers will make the younger generation complacent when September comes. I really really hope that COVID19 is not just SARS with higher infection rate, but so far it looks too similar.

And if it is similar in behavior. Then the 2nd wave will kill more than the 1st.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The more worrisome aspect of this is the potential for the second wave to hit the younger generation as has happened before with SARS. The narrative that this virus only kills boomers will make the younger generation complacent when September comes. I really really hope that COVID19 is not just SARS with higher infection rate, but so far it looks too similar.

And if it is similar in behavior. Then the 2nd wave will kill more than the 1st.

Is there data supporting this theory beyond “it happened with Spanish Flu”?

 

[Causalien]

Is there data supporting this theory beyond “it happened with Spanish Flu”?

Experience from SARS not Spanish flu.

It is generally accepted fact in Asian countries hit by SARS. As for data, I really haven't had time to dig it up as these were researches I read during SARS outbreak.

 

[ggr]

If I was a UK citizen I'd be suing immediately to stop the madness.

Sue whom? It doesn't work that way in the UK.

 

[msbuffy100]

I'm curious if anyone would cancel their appt for 3/19 for HW3 install because of this?

 

[MXLRplus]

6' personal buffer. Wash hands. Thumbs up, not hand shake. Don't touch face.

 

[SageBrush]

when you're facing people circling the drain in ICUs not doing something is simply untenable

How about making things worse ?

 

[bkp_duke]

None of the case reports or preliminary research summaries or statements by Chinese and Korean medical officials mention any zinc supplementation with chloroquine. Probably you just shouldn't be zinc deficient. Only vegetarians are likely to be deficient. zinc sources are most meats, especially shellfish, and most especially oysters.

Also blood plasma of the cured is interesting.
View attachment 522296

Now this one, I'm fully behind. There is ample evidence that purified plasma (i.e. the fraction containing antibodies) is a viable treatment for many infections.

The key is the harvest the plasma as close to after recovery as possible. Antibody levels decline over time and after a few months the B cells that produce them go into a memory phase (i.e. waiting for a second exposure to become active).

 

[SageBrush]

Given all of that, perhaps among the most promising short term treatment is the use of purified serum from fully recovered patients, to speed antibody development. That is hardly scalable. It is itself a risk because existing testing may tend to produce false negatives when viral loads are very low, thus suggesting recovery when it has not yet actually happened.

I like the other parts of your post -- bravo.

As for the above, PCR based assays are not affected by antibodies, and antibody infusion does not 'speed up' antibody development.
As for being a therapeutic, it is complicated because it is most effective given early in disease ... when it is not clearly indicated. And there will never be enough to give to every infected old or fat or co-morbid person in the US.

 

[CatB]

(Disclaimer: I have zero medical training, in fact, I faint at the sight of blood, so apologies in advance if I use all the wrong terminology).

If we want to improve outcomes (less physical suffering, lower fatalities, less economic impact/distress), and some of the variables we can’t control (current shortage of facilities equipment, age and pre-existing conditions of our population) and some variables we can (reduce the spread through quarantine, social distancing, lockdown - each with their own risks, damage and likely effectiveness). What about other variables for reducing criticality of disease (keep mild from becoming moderate, keep moderate from becoming severe, reduce critical), that will reduce health system and economic distress and improve outcomes, including getting to herd immunity status faster and with minimal pain/damage.

If the support people need for their immune systems to overcome this include ventilators and oxygen to help them breathe better, wouldn’t reducing air pollution help? This might be a silver lining to fewer cars and buses on the road, and fewer planes in the air. Someone posted the number of people worldwide who die from respiratory illness and pointed to pollution’s role in that. They seem to be intertwined.

IIRC, post-9/11 there was a noticeable difference in the weather without all the contrails and pollution from grounding planes. I’m wondering if we’ll see that, and if it will help.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I don't care what the WaPo wants to say. He was clearly alluding to the idea that it was a hoax. More importantly, his reckless words have given many of his followers the impression that he believes it as well.

Lots of people are going to die because of his BS this time.

Sure, many people misunderstood him. Especially those who don’t like him and think he’s an idiot or is looking for ways to paint him as bad. It’s the way it goes for political figures. Opposing partisans look for a way to misunderstand their opponents. It happened to Obama all the time.

If it’ll make you feel better, I doubt many people who like him misunderstood him. The right wing press and blogs didn’t take it to mean that he said the coronavirus itself or the outbreak was a hoax since none of them reported it that way. I just did a review of the right wing and left wing press searching for “Trump says coronavirus is a hoax”. The left wing press generally accuses Trump of being a moron and saying he said the virus itself was a hoax while the right wing press accuses the media of trying to smear Trump since Trump was talking about partisan criticism of Trump’s coronavirus actions as the new hoax.

Btw, Trump would have been undercutting his own argument since he started closing borders before the end of January, so very unlikely the “coronavirus is a hoax” was what he intended.

 

[CatB]

I like the other parts of your post -- bravo.

As for the above, PCR based assays are not affected by antibodies, and antibody infusion does not 'speed up' antibody development.
As for being a therapeutic, it is complicated because it is most effective given early in disease ... when it is not clearly indicated. And there will never be enough to give to every infected old or fat or co-morbid person in the US.

I think I saw that referenced as “firebreak” technique for giving healthcare workers enough ability to fight it off so they can keep taking care of people. If that’s the same thing, I don’t think it’s very scalable, although it sounded like labs were gearing up to do what they can (doesn’t appear to require much specialized equipment).

 

[rklip]

Isn't the big picture solution here for Tesla to combo and deploy Bioweapon Defense and Camp Mode?

 

[bkp_duke]

And now Belgian medical officials publish their guidelines for CV19 treatment

https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/COVID-19_InterimGuidelines_Treatment_ENG.pdf

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And yet another article that circles back to the UNPUBLISHED Chinese data.

I'll get behind this if/when the Chinese publish their data AND do follow up studies.

The longer they don't publish it, the more skeptical we all should become. And it is notable that no one else has published in vivo (i.e. patient data) for Chloroquine use with COVID-19. That sets off an alarm bell there for me.

 

[dhanson865]

This one avoids the percentage pitfall and has dates so if you share it it won't be misleading as it ages.

r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjj2xn/oc_covid19_us_vs_italy_11_day_lag/

 

[Nocturnal]

Sure, many people misunderstood him. Especially those who don’t like him and think he’s an idiot or is looking for ways to paint him as bad. It’s the way it goes for political figures. Opposing partisans look for a way to misunderstand their opponents. It happened to Obama all the time.

If it’ll make you feel better, I doubt many people who like him misunderstood him. The right wing press and blogs didn’t take it to mean that he said the coronavirus itself or the outbreak was a hoax since none of them reported it that way. I just did a review of the right wing and left wing press searching for “Trump says coronavirus is a hoax”. The left wing press generally accuses Trump of being a moron and saying he said the virus itself was a hoax while the right wing press accuses the media of trying to smear Trump since Trump was talking about partisan criticism of Trump’s coronavirus actions as the new hoax.

Btw, Trump would have been undercutting his own argument since he started closing borders before the end of January, so very unlikely the “coronavirus is a hoax” was what he intended.

I can't disagree with this more. The opposite is true. Just like the claims about the wall. He went on for months about how Mexico will pay for it, but when it became obvious that was an idiotic thing suddenly all the idiots followed the new talking point "oh, we always knew he meant Mexico would pay for it via tariffs."

People try to come up with complicated explanations after the fact to add meaning and depth to his statements, but that's just putting lipstick on a pig. I have Trumper relatives who as recently as yesterday were sharing sentiments that this is all a bunch of nonsense meant to bring him down. Wildly popular conservative media personalities like Limbaugh are doing the same. We understood exactly what Trump was saying. He is a raging narcissist, likely with some dementia.

Now, if he isn't an actual idiot, then surely he knows that his vague words will be taken at face value and that his followers will believe those words. I'm ok with either option. He really believes it's a hoax, or he doesn't, but is fine with suggesting this to his people for political reasons.

 

[Lessmog]

Sure, many people misunderstood him. Especially those who don’t like him and think he’s an idiot or is looking for ways to paint him as bad. It’s the way it goes for political figures. Opposing partisans look for a way to misunderstand their opponents. It happened to Obama all the time.

If it’ll make you feel better, I doubt many people who like him misunderstood him. The right wing press and blogs didn’t take it to mean that he said the coronavirus itself or the outbreak was a hoax since none of them reported it that way. I just did a review of the right wing and left wing press searching for “Trump says coronavirus is a hoax”. The left wing press generally accuses Trump of being a moron and saying he said the virus itself was a hoax while the right wing press accuses the media of trying to smear Trump since Trump was talking about partisan criticism of Trump’s coronavirus actions as the new hoax.

Btw, Trump would have been undercutting his own argument since he started closing borders before the end of January, so very unlikely the “coronavirus is a hoax” was what he intended.

Clarity in a crisis is imperative! ESPECIALLY for leaders.
This one is a monumental fail. On so many levels.
But this is certainly not the forum ...

 

[bkp_duke]

This is possibly quite important:

robin

Agreed. We already have data out of Wuhan that patients given steroids during severe COVID-19 infection did much worse than those that did not.

For those not aware, in some severe infections (think in an ICU, on a respirator) we give a steroid burst to try to reduce inflammation and keep the lungs functioning longer. Early data (and I caution it is early data that needs to be verified and validated) from China and now Italy are showing that steroid bursts have a detrimental effect on survival rate for COVID-19. Because anti-inflammatory drugs have a similar mode of action, to impede the production of a fever and reduce inflammation, they very well could have a similar unexpected detrimental effect.

 

[Cosmacelf]

This one avoids the percentage pitfall and has dates so if you share it it won't be misleading as it ages.

r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjj2xn/oc_covid19_us_vs_italy_11_day_lag/

is that data available, but expressed in terms of infections and deaths per 1 million population since the populations of both countries is quite different?