Coronavirus

[jerry33]

FWIW I just looked up ANGUS TA'AVAO and his BMI is 33

arguably he is more fit than I am at a BMI of 25.

Age: 834 months
Height 173 cm
Weight: 93.9 kg
Exercise data (includes effort)
For some reason the image with the heart rate graph doesn't show unless you click on it, but Ave = 126 bpm Peak = 142.

 

[Shayne]

I would just say that that seems contrary to what the public health experts say, and there is a fair amount we do not know about this disease when it comes to younger people. It’s not like a 0.2% fatality rate amongst the typically invulnerable 20-50 year old class is a walk in the park - even if some of those do have pre-existing conditions. Do you really know how dangerous this is?

I personally do not want to lose friends, and with a mortality rate of 0.2% in that lower risk group, it is virtually assured that I will lose someone dear to me, if everyone I know gets it.

I don't want to spread FUD at all, but it is not always a trivial illness for young people, from what I understand.

No we do not know and that is part of the problem. I have been looking at the death vs recovery rates and understand that they do not include the unreported cases. Italy at close to 50% does not fit the pattern? Governments appear concerned in every country and that should perk some ears. They have asked us to chill for a bit. If it nips it in the butt and avoids months of this crap who knows? I would think it is difficult to error on the side of caution as opposed to the other side. The way they are concerned may not support numbers but Italy would. Sure don't want to be one that showed no signs just carries it around for 24 days. Weird times.

 

[CatB]

Our government 5 head ministers are in a meeting now, we're waiting on info on what they decide to do next.

Whatever it is, I have to say they are pretty badass smart

View attachment 522284

FTFY

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

In The Netherlands half of the people with corona who end up in the IC are under 50! We have even have a 16 year old with no existing pre-condition on a respirator. And a young marathon runner with extremely good stamina and health had also been admitted to the IC. So it doesn't just threaten people over 70 with pre-existing conditions. No one is 100% safe.

Yeah, it's these stories that are going to become more clear in the coming days. There are always exceptions like this in any disease, as Dr. Fauci has said. But, it's this true % of hospitalizations that I worry about in this age group. It seems to me it is no ordinary cold or flu, even for these young people.

I think people who minimize this risk at this point in time, to those in the 20-50 age group, are doing so prematurely. Let's see how things look in a week. The data from China suggests a 0.2% case fatality rate in this age group. That's really bad. But I'm waiting for precise data from the US, after actual widespread testing is rolled out, and we can get the denominator figured out.

But to me it seems like the answer is going to be "this is bad." Let's just stamp this thing out and not minimize it...at least that's my gut feeling about this at the moment. We'll see.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'm afraid the people that have been promoting panic from day 1 are going to be right, but for the wrong reasons. We're nuking the global economy instead of the virus. The worst thing is, when this is over and far fewer people died than we expected, those in charge will congratulate themselves and be sure that panic is what saved us. Panic not only won't save our parents, it will also hurt our children's futures. The worst of both worlds.

We'll see. The most important thing governments can do in times like these is provide the real data to the people, with no filter or nonsense. Then people can make sensible decisions. We need to all work together to try to figure out the best strategy for dealing with this thing.
Getting massive mask production going, along with other protective equipment, therapeutics, testing, etc., and taking other steps to restrict disease spread, using the Defense Production Act, could get this country to a place where some economic activity can resume safely. Right now I think we can all agree we simply don't have all the options available to us that we need. We need to fix that.

Good article from former director of the CDC:

7 potentially deadly errors the US is making in its coronavirus response

 

[Causalien]

In The Netherlands half of the people with corona who end up in the IC are under 50! We have even have a 16 year old with no existing pre-condition on a respirator. And a young marathon runner with extremely good stamina and health had also been admitted to the IC. So it doesn't just threaten people over 70 with pre-existing conditions. No one is 100% safe.

My main focus in life is sports. So when I saw the 15% severe rate. I freaked out immediately because I do not want to get pulmonary fibrosis. It'll just end an athletes career. Not everyone is doing sports 3 hours a day so I can understand their focus on death rate, but the 15% severe injury will end up costing the society more in the long term.

 

[kbM3]

I don't know. UK has chosen a contrarian and potentially very dangerous route, which is to basically do nothing and reach herd immunity quickly. I'm closely monitoring their numbers.

China is very confusing to me. I know people there and it seems like they're having a better, yet delayed response, despite what the media say.

What exactly is the UK doing that's different from everyone else?

it’s not that UK is doing nothing. It’s that they believe it is already so widespread, that containment is impossible. They’ve therefore moved to the next stage of social distancing. They may not be doing this strongly enough, but they are recommending it.

Although they’re not doing nothing, I would agree they seem to be doing the least.

 

[bhzmark]

And now Belgian medical officials publish their guidelines for CV19 treatment

https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/COVID-19_InterimGuidelines_Treatment_ENG.pdf

 

[Nocturnal]

The Washington Post recently posted a fact check on a recent Biden ad that had deceptively edited what I think is the source of all these "Trump called coronavirus a hoax" posts. On February 28, during a rally, Trump, in his rambling style, said that his political opponents were ginning up the coronavirus response or lack of response as the next crisis to attack him. He liken it to the Russia conspiracy theories, and the failed impeachment trial. Since he called all these previous political hits "hoaxes", he was calling the attempt to hurt him politically about coronavirus a hoax. He WASN'T calling the virus or the threat of the virus itself a hoax. He was calling the attempt to use the crisis as a political weapon a hoax (ie. in his eyes, the criticism of his response isn't valid).

The Washington Post article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/13/biden-ad-manipulates-video-slam-trump/

I'm well aware that the article criticizes Trump for other things, like similarly deceptively edited video, lack of response, etc. But saying that Trump called the coronavirus outbreak a hoax is simply not true. And I do understand there is a certain amount of sarcastic mocking in some of the comments above, but it can perpetuate a myth.

I don't care what the WaPo wants to say. He was clearly alluding to the idea that it was a hoax. More importantly, his reckless words have given many of his followers the impression that he believes it as well.

Lots of people are going to die because of his BS this time.

 

[Shayne]

I think people who minimize this risk at this point in time, to those in the 20-50 age group, are doing so prematurely. Let's see how things look in a week. The data from China suggests a 0.2% case fatality rate in this age group. That's really bad. But I'm waiting for precise data from the US, after actual widespread testing is rolled out, and we can get the denominator figured out.

But to me it seems like the answer is going to be "this is bad." Let's just stamp this thing out and not minimize it...at least that's my gut feeling about this at the moment. We'll see.

One could wonder if the self absorbed will ensure that even the most drastic measures only produce marginal results. I definitely believe it is time to chill and slow this down (flatten the curve) so the hospitals can continue to deal with this in a civil manner. We are all in the same boat and we can now all see the other side of the world and what is coming. We have a window that China (and possibly Europe) did not. How we use this window time will tell. Good to know we have stable geniuses around when we need them; because what we do not need now is the self absorbed.

 

[SageBrush]

More importantly, his reckless words

trump speaks in dog whistles, and his acolytes then interpret his words for the audience at hand.

Depending on the audience that can be
1. Covid-19 is a hoax !
or
2. Hoax means not a hoax

Not the Public Health position I would recommend.

 

[SageBrush]

it’s not that UK is doing nothing. It’s that they believe it is already so widespread, that containment is impossible.

Is that your opinion or the UK Public Health position ?

The idea of putting everybody in their homes until the virus is gone is fair nonsensical. There has to be a strategy to keep the virus contained to low levels while allowing society to function, meaning people continue working and buying. Relative isolation for the highest risk groups is reasonable for now. Quarantine for those infected makes sense (and thus the need for early detection.) Social distancing, heightened personal hygiene and mask use where social distancing is not possible makes sense.

 

[Nocturnal]

Is that your opinion or the UK Public Health position ?

The idea of putting everybody in their homes until the virus is gone is fair nonsensical. There has to be a strategy to keep the virus contained to low levels while allowing society to function, meaning people continue working and buying. Relative isolation for the highest risk groups is reasonable for now. Quarantine for those infected makes sense (and thus the need for early detection.) Social distancing, heightened personal hygiene and mask use where social distancing is not possible makes sense.

I'm hoping that in the US at least it will slow enough to only hit a few cities at a time. So by the time it hits Chicago let's say, then Seattle will be over the worst of it and can start getting back to normal-ish behavior.

I don't see things like sporting events coming back anytime in the next few months.

 

[jbcarioca]

WTH. Why does the Vatican show 800,000+ deaths? Someone hitting the sauce when they updated the stats?

No, but their dataset began with 1347 with Yersinia pestis

 

[SageBrush]

I looked up the NHS recommendations for Covid-19.
They strike me as fairly reasonable with the notable exception of mask use.

The conclusion here that the UK has decided to let the virus run rampant is baseless.

 

[EV Promoter]

Yes, the U.S. and the UK experiment to intentionally infect everyone is troubling, because it removes the chance to eradicate the virus via containment like China or South Korea is doing, and splits the world economy into two fundamentally incompatible segments:

• No western democracy that has stabilized and contained infections will be able to receive regular passenger traffic from virus countries.
• Even flow of goods will be impacted negatively: if the virus can survive for days/weeks on certain surfaces then the UK won't be able to trade with the EU at all for an extended time, or will have drastically shrunk markets - and forget about food and premium products from virus countries. Brexit slump will be seen as a walk in the park...
• @Right_Said_Fred already provided a data point of this process: EU food supplement companies are avoiding Chinese suppliers and are raiding all other suppliers, putting companies without Chinese suppliers into distress as well. If the UK becomes a virus country, they'll not just be on an unofficial blacklist, but safety regulations will make a lot of UK goods illegal to sell in the EU and will attach instant negative "virus" stigma.
• If I was a UK citizen I'd be suing immediately to stop the madness.
• No western democracy will be able to "choose" herd immunity and become a virus country, because it will kill tens of thousands per 10 million citizens in a well documented way (Covid-19 virus test applied to autopsy results) and rip the country apart. It's one thing if the unavoidable flu season kills indiscriminately, but it's entirely different to start a killing season intentionally. Any policymaker doing that could be charged with thousands of counts of homicide. No court will allow it, and no democratic process can result in the traceable demise of tens of thousands of citizens. Italy is already treating quarantine breaking as attempted homicide.

Only a vaccine will resolve this incompatibility - but how long until a new vaccine can be safely administered to the millions of the 60+ years old populace?

This. Exactly.

 

[N5329K]

This is possibly quite important:

robin

 

[Shayne]

Is that your opinion or the UK Public Health position ?

The idea of putting everybody in their homes until the virus is gone is fair nonsensical. There has to be a strategy to keep the virus contained to low levels while allowing society to function, meaning people continue working and buying. Relative isolation for the highest risk groups is reasonable for now. Quarantine for those infected makes sense (and thus the need for early detection.) Social distancing, heightened personal hygiene and mask use where social distancing is not possible makes sense.

Guess they are saying cool it if you can until it passes and slow down spreading it as to not increase the probability of spreading it to the ones you appear to want to force into isolation. If you do not tax our hospitals/governments then this may also be best for the economy in the long run. If it peaks like Italy maybe not.

Do you think the worlds governments are weight the economic impact? Do you believe you have a better understanding of the situation than them? I believe the people should listen to their local governments and try to help not hinder. Not normally one for government but when we need to group this is the conduit of our world to collaborate. An informed group is always better than one flapping an opinion on their keyboard.

 

[jbcarioca]

It is nothing, unless you provide exertion context. And even then fitness and fatness are not mutually exclusive.

However,
Walk outside. Do you see hulks or pot bellies ?

You both have good points. Realistically the morbidity and mortality in this outbreak have correlates closely analogous to almost every other infectious disease, with the single exception that children are often symptom free although there is not yet clear evidence that I can find to suggest they are not carriers of the virus, just that are usually free of COVID-19.

There are more and more studies appearing about morbidity and mortality, mostly seeming to reinforce the generalizations above. Lancet has published some carefully stated ones using Wuhan data as the base:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext

Otherwise there are a group of data that seem to fit well with morbidity and mortality data used by parts fo the health insurance industry. Other things remaining equal, age itself correlates well with susceptibility precisely because age correlates well with many diseases, thus tending to conflate age with disease. That is fallacious, even though the human immune system does become less effective with age, so it is easy to assume that age is the determining factor when it mostly is not.

The two overarching behavioral characteristics that always correlate with disease susceptibility are smoking and obesity. Always! Smoking never has an exception, but obesity is itself an analogue for poor cardiovascular condition.

After those two issues it becomes statistically very simple and logical. The following categories of disease preexisting (NOT in history, but now existing) tend to have around 75% higher presence when almost any viral infection is acquired:
Cardiovascular
Diabetes
Kidney
Pulmonary
Hepatitis B
Cancer

If two or more such diseases are present the morbidity and mortality both tend to rise by about 250%.

There are many sources for such data, including those of COVID-19 such as those of Lancet. Every virus has distinct difference in communicability, gestation periods and both morbidity and mortality. The relative susceptibility, though, is nearly always along the lines I show above. The primary differences tend to be the prevalence of childhood susceptibility (thus the 'childhood disease' category) as well as the normal practice to require annual flu vaccinations for very young and very old, while being less rigid for others.

If there is one reason for acutely urgent reaction worldwide this time it is that old people are living longer than ever before while chronic diseases that once killed quickly now have continuing treatments, notably kidney, cardiovascular, diabetes and pulmonary. That very success causes increased risks for every new communicable disease.

That seems to be a significant factor in Italy, China, Korea, the US and elsewhere. That also suggests the catastrophic consequences that may result from inadequate prevention and provision of every category of ICU support as well as all categories of pulmonary disease treatment.

Given all of that, perhaps among the most promising short term treatment is the use of purified serum from fully recovered patients, to speed antibody development. That is hardly scalable. It is itself a risk because existing testing may tend to produce false negatives when viral loads are very low, thus suggesting recovery when it has not yet actually happened.

 

[dfwatt]

I understand those of you criticizing the reports of combinations of malaria medicine and zinc as not being adequately tested. But if the anticipated numbers of cases grows and we are triaging the use of ventilators then I think a little out of the box thinking on treatments cannot be all bad. In particular in cases of medicines that have long been used on humans.

I agree and as I said in my prior post when you're facing people circling the drain in ICUs not doing something is simply untenable.